Conservative Contradictions: The Limits On Cherry Tories

There has been much talk of Re-leavers: those who voted to Remain but are at nowadays voting for Theresa May to instruct the best Brexit deal. I had talked close something similar long earlier the term arose (see here together with the previous linked post), thence I create non shout out upwards this is only an artifact of detail poll questions. But I’m likewise sure that this is non the exclusively argue many Remainers volition vote Conservative.

Some, equally Ian Dunt suggests, only believe that Brexit is inevitable (as you lot would based on most of the MSM [1]), together with that May would live improve at negotiating our leave of absence than Corbyn. Others ever vote Conservative because they belong to detail groups inward society, together with they are sure that political party volition - whatever happens - protect their interests over others. Think the typical Times reader for example. If nosotros are talking close what you lot mightiness telephone telephone the affluent middle class, their assumptions receive got a company empirical base.

This becomes of import i time you lot recognise the dismal economical outlook that faces the Great Britain over the side past times side decade. Productivity growth has virtually stopped. That way that, on electrical flow policies, growth inward output per caput is probable to live pretty slow. In addition, the Brexit depreciation volition trim down existent incomes, a procedure that has already begun. Finally May seems determined to trim down immigration equally far equally she can, which if it happens volition harm Blue Planet finances.

Think of both the Conservative's substance back upwards together with these dismal economical prospects inward trying to create upwards one's heed how seriously to accept the interventionist proposals inward Theresa May’s get-go manifesto. (For expert background give-and-take on this written earlier the manifesto was published, run across Rick here together with Geoffrey Wheatcroft here.) The words inward the manifesto are certainly different: for example

"We create non believe inward untrammelled gratuitous markets. We turn down the cult of selfish individualism. We detest social division, injustice, unfairness together with inequality. We run across stiff dogma together with ideology non only equally needless but dangerous."

Furthermore closed to of the proposals would receive got been condemned equally socialist nonsense inward sure quarters if they had been made past times closed to other party. For instance a cap on unloosen energy bills, worker ‘representation’ on companionship boards, to a greater extent than council housing, a ‘modern industrial strategy’, together with of course of didactics to a greater extent than measures to discourage (and maybe control) immigration. Now non all of these measures require serious money, but a lot of them create if they are to live meaningful. And, dissimilar the Labour or LibDem proposals, the Conservative’s plans are completely uncosted.

As a result, it becomes imperative to enquire how much each mensurate volition cost, together with where the coin comes from, because that volition give away a basic contradiction betwixt rhetoric together with reality. It is extremely hard if non impossible to tackle social segmentation together with inequality if you lot desire to protect your substance supporters together with are non increasing the size of the cake. You could detect the coin past times raising taxes on business, but given Brexit the Conservatives are unlikely to contrary their cuts inward corporation tax. (Not thence much because of their economical effects, but to save the back upwards of the trouble concern community which has cash inward one's chips strained past times Brexit.) You could detect the coin past times raising taxes that largely comport on on the improve off, but that risks losing your substance support. You could set financial rectitude to i side, but that would seriously tarnish the brand.

Given these contradictions, the rhetoric to a higher identify is exclusively probable to live accompanied past times token gestures inward reality. The most obvious affair May could receive got done to aid the only managing identify unit of measurement was to chip the proposed cuts to inward travel benefits, together with she did nothing. To live able to address inequality together with social segmentation without taking away from the improve off you lot involve a growing economy. The tragedy for Theresa May is that her insistence that Brexit way controlling immigration ensures [2] that is really unlikely to happen, together with it is non clear she realises this.

But sure the alter inward rhetoric must hateful something? The start of a Red Tory era, or the re-emergence of pre-Thatcher Conservatism, or at to the lowest degree the expiry of neoliberalism inward the UK? I volition start to believe those things when the IFS starts expecting falls inward tike poverty, rather than the - policy induced - increases they project. I volition start to believe it when the pledge to innovate inequality enhancing Grammar schools is dropped. Until then, I suspect all nosotros may live seeing is the same grasp of economic science May has ever displayed inward government: she wants everyone to receive got more, spell implementing policies that impede economical growth. I fright this Red Tory may live closed to other symptom of the illness that hitting the Great Britain alongside Brexit. We are inward the 'have your cake together with swallow it' era, an era that through its ain contradictions cannot last.    

[1] The MSM where I fright the thought that the electrical flow autumn inward existent reward is downwardly to Brexit is at nowadays a ‘contested view’, thank you lot to recent remarks past times the Prime Minister.

[2] Both direct through the comport on of lower immigration on Blue Planet finances (uncontested past times the Conservatives, maybe because it comes from the OBR), together with indirectly because it way nosotros receive got to leave of absence the Single Market.