Theresa May Has Qualities, Only Negotiation Science Is Non 1 Of Them

One of the of import criteria I used inward selecting posts for my novel book out this November, The Lies nosotros were Told, is that each chapter (collection of posts) must tell a coherent story. (It tin strength out live ordered at a 20% discount here, rising to 35% if you lot bring together the publisher’s mailing list.) So, for example, the chapter on austerity had to comprise at to the lowest degree ane post that covered each of the false arguments made for rapid deficit reduction, every bit good every bit discussing the existent reasons the regime pursued this policy long afterward it was evidently damaging the economy.

Those criteria, summation the require to avoid writing also large a book, inevitably meant that I had to destination my give-and-take of Brexit with the European Union referendum. It is nevertheless impossible to say which of the many things I receive got written on Brexit afterward the plebiscite volition live business office of a coherent flush as well as which volition live tangential. But if I ever create receive got to select which posts were important, this talking well-nigh the qualities of Theresa May every bit a somebody would live one. The argue is largely because it contains this quote from a discussion yesteryear David Runciman inward LRB of Rosa Prince’s biography of May.

“May didn’t create negotiation; inward the words of Eric Pickles, ane of her cabinet colleagues, she is non a ‘transactional’ politician. She takes a seat as well as and thence she sticks to it, seeing it every bit a affair of regulation that she delivers on what she has committed to. This doesn’t hateful that she is a conviction politician. Often she arrives at a seat reluctantly afterward much agonising – every bit abode secretarial assistant she became notorious for beingness painfully ho-hum to create upwardly one's heed on matters over which she had personal authority. Many of the positions she adopts are ones she has inherited, seeing no selection but to brand skillful on other people’s promises. This has oft brought her into conflict with the politicians from whom she inherited these commitments. By making fixed what her colleagues regarded every bit lines inward the sand, she drove roughly of them mad.”

If you lot desire to know why the Salzburg meeting was such a failure for her, you lot require alone read this paragraph. May invests far also much inward whatever invention she puts forward, as well as presents it every bit the alone possible way forward. She is inward that feel the embodiment of Thatcher’s TINA (There Is No Alternative). She did that with her Chequers invention at Salzburg, as well as yet she is surprised that the European Union showed no inclination to offering anything novel every bit a counter proposal. Maybe the European Union never volition offering anything new, but you lot volition never honour out if you lot hand no hint of flexibility yourself.

If beingness a hopeless negotiator is keen enough, the finally 2 years receive got also shown that whatever political cognition she has does non extend beyond agreement how the Conservative political party works. Her closest advisers, who she relies on a lot, may be footling different. After she became Prime Minister she made a serial of terrible decisions that receive got turned a bad province of affairs for the Great Britain into a terrible position. The most of import of course of pedagogy was invoking Article l without whatever invention well-nigh what powerfulness hap next, for no amend argue than the Brexiters were anxious people powerfulness modify their minds. As I wrote inward Nov 2016

“Anyone who truly wants a skillful bargain from the European Union when nosotros leave of absence should realise that the UK’s negotiating seat becomes at ane time weaker ane time Article l is triggered.”

There are plenty of other blunders: choosing a prominent Brexiter every bit her primary negotiator, fighting the require for parliamentary approving for triggering A50 inward the courts, forcing Ivan Rogers out, her cherry-red lines as well as thence on. Her focus on keeping the Conservative political party together meant that she failed to empathise as well as continues to neglect to empathise how the European Union works. Above all else she has failed to consider that the A50 procedure is less a negotiation as well as to a greater extent than similar agreeing a damage of surrender.

Does this mean, every bit Stephen Bush alongside others suggest, that No Deal is a to a greater extent than probable outcome? In reality all Salzburg as well as May’s subsequent ‘statement to the people’ hateful is to a greater extent than fourth dimension has been lost. (The declaration could hateful cypher to a greater extent than than she has a political party conference coming up.) As Martin Sandbu explains, at that spot is concession the European Union could brand that is worth playing for, as well as that is extending the NI organization (in CU as well as SM for goods) to the balance of the UK. At the real least, she needs the European Union to say inward the Withdrawal Agreement that they would entertain roughly merchandise organization that negated the require for a edge inward the Irish Gaelic Sea but brutal brusque of staying inward the consummate unmarried market. Unfortunately May’s lack of negotiating skills as well as cognition agency she is less probable to larn either.

If she does non larn those things, volition she convey the Great Britain out with No Deal? As the quote from David Runciman suggests, many of the positions May adopts with apparent rigidity are inherited, as well as the European Union plebiscite resultant is ane of that type. She is non a conviction politician, as well as her primary involvement is e'er going to live her survival. We tin strength out also convey comfort inward her cognition of her ain party, which agency she must know her hereafter lies with MPs who are non Brexiters. Enough of this grouping knows, to utilization Corbyn’s words, that no bargain is non an option. They powerfulness tolerate May pretending it is every bit business office of the negotiations, but they volition create everything they tin strength out to halt her truly going through with it. May is useful, or indeed essential, to that grouping alone thence long every bit she does non hand the Brexiters what they want, which is No Deal. All these things indicate to May beingness prepared, at the destination of the day, to convey the backstop with simply warm words from the European Union on hereafter arrangements.

If you lot nevertheless recollect May has of late drawn a business inward the sand thence deep that she couldn’t perchance cross it without falling, a skillful practise would live to listing all the other cherry-red lines she has drawn but as well as thence crossed over. If you lot doubtfulness her capacity to live come upwardly what may recollect of the 2017 election. But of course of pedagogy I may live mistaken. One of the squeamish things well-nigh the majority was beingness able to await dorsum at what I got correct as well as got incorrect using the device of postscripts. If I ever write upwardly my best posts on events afterward the plebiscite 2 of my mistakes stand upwardly out: non agreement the fundamental utilization Republic of Ireland would play until September 2017, as well as non seeing how May’s inevitable split upwardly with the Brexiters could modify the dynamics on voting over whatever finally deal. I hope a tertiary error volition non live inward misjudging May’s character.