If May Loses Her Brexit Vote, What Happens Next?

If the withdrawal understanding is defeated inwards parliament (due to likewise many Brexiters too Tory Remainers voting against too non plenty Labour rebels voting alongside May) what happens next? Answering that interrogation has some acquit upon on whether the understanding alongside the European Union volition endure voted down, of course. As I noted inwards an before post, what May says volition come about before the vote volition convey virtually no implications for what truly happens because May has no involvement inwards keeping her word.

I desire to pursue 1 possibility, but I’m making no predictions this volition truly happen. It is, inwards a way, a precautionary tale, because it tells us what mightiness come about if parliament is non real active. Losing the vote volition endure a huge personal blow for May. In those circumstances, the terminal affair a Prime Minister wants is to appear to endure powerless. She volition hence test to find the inaugural quickly.

One alternative is to become dorsum to the European Union too inquire for to a greater extent than time. If the vote is real unopen this volition endure real tempting. She volition endure thinking well-nigh twisting arms of for certain rebel MPs to test too instruct them to switch. But I suspect the European Union volition non play this game, partly because agreeing whatsoever serious extension of Article 50 would convey to involve all fellow member states, too partly because they would fearfulness subsequent requests later each farther failure. An instant rebuff from the European Union volition non endure the hold off the already weak PM volition want, then this route is non every bit attractive every bit it mightiness commencement appear.

Announcing a General Election is some other possibility, but this likewise is problematic, essentially because she has already tried this trace a fast 1 on inwards 2017 too failed dismally. She volition need a ii thirds bulk of MPs, too it is possible that her political party from Brexiters to Remainers would non follow her. She could also create upwards one's remove heed to telephone telephone the whole affair off, but I suspect fifty-fifty imagining she mightiness produce that is wishful thinking.

Which leaves a referendum. She has ruled out “under whatsoever circumstances” a minute referendum, but she also ruled out a full general election before she called 1 inwards 2017. I would endure surprised if the European Union did non concur to extend Article 50 if a minute plebiscite was called. But if she did become downwards that route, I would endure incredibly surprised if the ii choices she would suggest were non No Deal or her deal. This is where parliament would remove to act. But it would require the Conservative rebels on the Remain side to mensuration upwards too endure counted - something that they convey oft failed to do.

In addition, would the Labour ("We can't halt it") leadership vote to position Remain on the ballot, too fifty-fifty if they did how many rebels would defy whatsoever pedagogy to produce so? It seems to me that whatsoever endeavour to instruct Remain on the ballot past times parliament would endure a real unopen call. Added to that would endure the farther employment of how Remain appears on the ballot. Does it supersede No Deal, which some mightiness experience (not me) is anti-democratic? If not, someone needs to come upwards up alongside a to a greater extent than complex plebiscite selection (e.g this suggested past times Chris Giles) that a bulk of the House volition support.

The to a greater extent than I mean value well-nigh the alternative of going for a bargain or No Deal referendum, the to a greater extent than attractive an alternative it looks for May. She volition endure fighting on only 1 flank, rather than multiple flanks. If parliament fails to instruct Remain on the ballot, it seems almost for certain that she volition instruct the pop vote for her bargain she wants. Remainers too Labour mightiness utter defiantly of boycotting the ballot, but that would entirely growth the chances of No Deal winning, too I incertitude they would send many voters alongside them, every bit it would endure a futile too unsafe gesture. Parts of the press would force No Deal, but May would promise plenty ‘sensible leavers’ would unite alongside ‘fearful Remainers’ to defeat them. MPs would non dare to vote against a bargain backed past times a plebiscite victory.

That way, May turns a disaster (losing the vote inwards parliament) into a triumph. Which is why I truly promise that behind the scenes for certain substitution MPs are planning for just this scenario. The executive convey a huge commencement mover wages over parliament, too leaving this planning until later May’s bargain alongside the European Union is voted downwards would in all likelihood endure likewise late. Advanced planning inwards some exceptional is needed, something that the other Mr Johnson tin fill upwards his newly found spare fourth dimension doing perhaps.