One Vote That Rules Them All

As Justin Lewis recalls, an Ipsos Mori poll but earlier the European Union plebiscite “found that spell most people (70% to 17%) did non believe a claim that British people would hold upward significantly poorer exterior the EU, they were to a greater extent than probable to convey (by 47% to 39%) the £350m a calendar week figure.” Such beliefs betoken both that Leave ran a much amend campaign, in addition to besides that the broadcast media totally failed to inform its viewers.

Those beliefs well-nigh the economical touching of Brexit are forthwith outset to change, equally this serial of results from a dissimilar poll show:

One obvious argue for this shift is the increase inward inflation that the Brexit vote has generated. This shift is important, because polls earlier in addition to afterward the vote besides suggested that a large proportion of voters alone wanted to cut immigration (as a motive for voting Leave) equally long equally it did non terms them whatsoever money.

But pose these things together in addition to nosotros instruct something of a paradox. If existence worse off was to a greater extent than of import than reducing immigration, in addition to to a greater extent than people are forthwith convinced they volition hold upward worse off, why has pop consider well-nigh the vote itself hardly changed. The YouGov tracker poll, which asks “In hindsight, create yous mean value UK was correct or incorrect to vote to leave of absence the European Union?”, has hardly moved since the vote, alongside currently equally many people proverb Yes equally No.

It is non but the economical information that is going the incorrect way. Matthew d’Ancona quotes a senior regime origin equally proverb “the iii primary Brexiteers are of a precipitous becoming to a greater extent than in addition to to a greater extent than song well-nigh the demand to choke on the [immigration] numbers sufficiently high for the needs of the economy.” They are correct of course, but it suggests roughly other primal expanse inward which the expectations of Leave voters volition hold upward disappointed. Not to elevate the £350 1 K one thousand a calendar week coming to us turning into a £50 billion pecker going to the EU.

Here is a possible argue for this paradox. (I acknowledge I direct maintain piffling show for it, in addition to it is non the alone possible explanation.) Voters experience that in 1 lawsuit a democratic conclusion has been made, it should hold upward respected, fifty-fifty if they personally forthwith experience less comfortable alongside the reasons behind the decision. It is of import to abide by the ‘will of the people’ for its ain sake, but equally it is of import to choke on to a contract fifty-fifty though yous may forthwith regret signing it. I create non mean value this consider is sensible inward this context, but that is a dissimilar issue.

You could role a similar rationalisation for Labour’s evolving attitudes to Brexit. Their latest poll show:

One obvious argue for this shift is the increase inward inflation that the Brexit vote has generated. This shift is important, because polls earlier in addition to afterward the vote besides suggested that a large proportion of voters alone wanted to cut immigration (as a motive for voting Leave) equally long equally it did non terms them whatsoever money.

But pose these things together in addition to nosotros instruct something of a paradox. If existence worse off was to a greater extent than of import than reducing immigration, in addition to to a greater extent than people are forthwith convinced they volition hold upward worse off, why has pop consider well-nigh the vote itself hardly changed. The YouGov tracker poll, which asks “In hindsight, create yous mean value UK was correct or incorrect to vote to leave of absence the European Union?”, has hardly moved since the vote, alongside currently equally many people proverb Yes equally No.

It is non but the economical information that is going the incorrect way. Matthew d’Ancona quotes a senior regime origin equally proverb “the iii primary Brexiteers are of a precipitous becoming to a greater extent than in addition to to a greater extent than song well-nigh the demand to choke on the [immigration] numbers sufficiently high for the needs of the economy.” They are correct of course, but it suggests roughly other primal expanse inward which the expectations of Leave voters volition hold upward disappointed. Not to elevate the £350 1 K one thousand a calendar week coming to us turning into a £50 billion pecker going to the EU.

Here is a possible argue for this paradox. (I acknowledge I direct maintain piffling show for it, in addition to it is non the alone possible explanation.) Voters experience that in 1 lawsuit a democratic conclusion has been made, it should hold upward respected, fifty-fifty if they personally forthwith experience less comfortable alongside the reasons behind the decision. It is of import to abide by the ‘will of the people’ for its ain sake, but equally it is of import to choke on to a contract fifty-fifty though yous may forthwith regret signing it. I create non mean value this consider is sensible inward this context, but that is a dissimilar once ignore them. Conservative MPs who are besides Remainers volition console themselves that at to the lowest degree disaster has been avoided. In the end, that 1 vote volition bind us all.