Enso: Weak El Niño + Forecast

From IRI/Columbia:
IRI ENSO Forecast
2018 Nov Quick Look
Published: Nov 8, 2018

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 monthly summary of the condition of El Niño, La Niña, in addition to the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)

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El Niño-level SSTs were observed inwards the Oct average, in addition to the subsurface waters equally good continued to locomote warmer than average. However, the atmospheric variables showed mainly ENSO-neutral patterns, including the distribution of cloudiness/rainfall, ocean marking line per unit of measurement area in addition to upper marking winds. Only lower-level air current anomalies were weakly westerly inwards the eastern Pacific–a proposition of El Niño. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for an 80% peril of El Niño prevailing during winter, in addition to a 55-60% peril of continuing into boundary 2019. An El Niño scout is inwards effect. New forecasts of statistical in addition to dynamical models collectively present continuing El Niño-level SSTs, nigh probable weak to moderate inwards strength, continuing through spring....

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 IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume

Plume of forecasts of the Nino3.4 SST anomaly from dynamical in addition to statistical models that are function during the starting fourth dimension one-half of the month. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 probability forecast is generated using all of the models inwards Fig. 4, in addition to is shown inwards Fig. 3. The average of the forecasts of the dynamical models is shown past times the thick xanthous line, in addition to of the statistical models past times the thick light-green line. The average of the iv models function at the NOAA Climate Prediction centre (CPC) is shown past times the thick pinkish line. This figure is updated on the tertiary Th of every month. Because forecasts from roughly of the models shown inwards Fig. 4 are non even in addition to thus available when the official CPC/IRI ENSO probability forecast (Fig. 1) is made, the official forecast uses equally 1 of its inputs the Fig. 4 for the previous mid-month, which is shown inwards the CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.