The Cardinal To Everything Freeman Dyson On Geoffrey West's Scale...

Until seeing this I wasn't aware Professor Dyson was even so alive. The quondam man child hung out at Princeton's Institute for Advanced Studies at the same fourth dimension Einstein was there. He knew all the physics brainiacs of the day, Feynman inward exceptional as well as was acuate plenty himself that Princeton grabbed him as well as made Dyson a Professor despite his lack of a PhD.

This review was recommended yesteryear i of the commenters on Izabella Kaminska's concluding posting at FT Alphaville which nosotros linked inward "UPDATED—A Map of Every City (plus Izabella Kaminska does a drive-by)".

And speaking of Ms Kaminska, why haven't the tech boffins at the Financial Times come upward up alongside a robo-Izzy until her return?

Finally, Professor Dyson takes a dimmer watch of Complexity 'science' than many sci-guys but even so writes good plenty that I am non going to attribute the crotchety bits to the aches as well as pains of his beingness 94 years old. Something genuinely bugs him most the topic.

From the New York Review of Books, May 10, 2018 Issue:

Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, as well as the Pace of Life inward Organisms, Cities, Economies, as well as Companies

yesteryear Geoffrey West

Penguin, 479 pp., $30.00

Geoffrey West spent most of his life every bit a enquiry scientist as well as administrator at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, running programs concerned non alongside nuclear weapons but alongside peaceful physics. After retiring from Los Alamos, he became managing director of the nearby Santa atomic number 26 Institute, where he switched from physics to a broader interdisciplinary computer program known every bit complexity science. The Santa atomic number 26 Institute is leading the public inward complexity science, alongside a mixed grouping of physicists, biologists, economists, political scientists, calculator experts, as well as mathematicians working together. Their aim is to plough over a deep agreement of the complexities of the natural surroundings as well as of human society, using the methods of science.

Scale is a progress report, summarizing the insights that West as well as his colleagues at Santa atomic number 26 receive got achieved. West does remarkably good every bit a writer, making a complicated public seem simple. He uses pictures as well as diagrams to explicate the facts, alongside a leisurely text to position the facts into their proper setting, as well as no equations. There are many digressions, expressing personal opinions as well as telling stories that give a commonsense pregnant to scientific conclusions. The text as well as the pictures could in all probability survive understood as well as enjoyed yesteryear a vivid ten-year-old or yesteryear a not-so-bright grandparent.

The title, Scale, needs some clarification. To explicate what his volume is about, West added the subtitle “The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, as well as the Pace of Life inward Organisms, Cities, Economies, as well as Companies.” The championship tells us that the universal laws the volume lays downwardly are scaling laws. The word “scale” is a verb pregnant “vary together.” Each scaling constabulary says that 2 measurable quantities vary together inward a exceptional way.

We suppose that the variation of each quantity is expressed every bit a percent charge per unit of measurement of increment or decrease. The scaling constabulary so says that the percent charge per unit of measurement for quantity A is a fixed number k times the percent charge per unit of measurement for quantity B. The number k is called the mightiness of the scaling law. Since the percent changes of A as well as B accumulate alongside chemical compound interest, the scaling constabulary says that A varies alongside the kth mightiness of B, where at nowadays the word “power” has its usual mathematical meaning. For example, if a trunk is falling without air resistance, the scaling constabulary betwixt distance fallen as well as fourth dimension has k=2. The distance varies alongside the foursquare of time. You autumn xvi feet inward i second, 64 feet inward 2 seconds, 144 feet inward 3 seconds, as well as so on.

Another classic instance of a scaling constabulary is the tertiary constabulary of planetary motion, discovered yesteryear the astronomer Johannes Kepler inward 1618. Kepler constitute yesteryear careful observation that the fourth dimension it takes for a planet to orbit the Sun scales alongside the three-halves mightiness of the diameter of its orbit. That way that the foursquare of the fourth dimension is proportional to the cube of the distance. Kepler measured the periods as well as diameters of the orbits of the 6 planets known inward his time, as well as constitute that they followed the scaling constabulary precisely. Fifty-nine years later, Isaac Newton explained Kepler’s laws of planetary motion every bit consequences of a mathematical theory of universal gravitation. Kepler’s laws gave Newton the essential clues that led to the theoretical agreement of the physical universe.

There is a scaling constabulary inward biological scientific discipline every bit of import every bit Kepler’s tertiary constabulary inward astronomy. It ought to receive got the holler of Motoo Kimura attached to it, since he was the foremost to empathize its importance, but instead it is known every bit the constabulary of genetic drift. Genetic drift is i of the 2 bully driving forces of evolution, the other beingness natural selection. Darwin is rightly honored for his agreement of natural pick every bit a primary drive of evolution, but he failed to include genetic drift inward his moving-picture exhibit because he knew cypher most genes.

Genetic drift is the alter inward the average composition of a population due to random mutations of private genes. Genetic drift causes species to evolve fifty-fifty inward the absence of selection. Genetic drift as well as natural pick move together to drive evolution, pick beingness dominant when populations are large, genetic drift beingness dominant when populations are small.

Genetic drift is especially of import for the formation of novel species, when populations may rest pocket-size for a long time. The predominance of genetic drift for pocket-size populations is due to a elementary scaling law. Genetic drift scales alongside the inverse foursquare rootage of population. This way that genetic drift is 10 times faster for a population of 10 K than for a population of a million. The scaling is the same for whatever form of random mutations. If nosotros discovery whatever measurable quantity such every bit height, running speed, historic current at puberty, or news bear witness score, the average drift volition vary alongside the inverse foursquare rootage of population. The foursquare rootage results from the statistical averaging of random events.

West is at nowadays making a huge claim: that scaling laws similar to Kepler’s constabulary as well as the genetic drift constabulary volition Pb us to a theoretical agreement of biology, sociology, economics, as well as commerce. To justify this claim he has to Blue Planet the scaling laws, display the evidence that they are true, as well as exhibit how they Pb to understanding. He does good alongside the foremost as well as 2nd tasks, non so good alongside the third. The greater usage of the volume is occupied alongside stating the laws as well as showing the evidence. Little infinite is left over for explaining. The Santa atomic number 26 observers know how to play the usage of a modern-day Kepler, but they exercise non come upward unopen to beingness a modern-day Newton.

The history of each branch of scientific discipline tin give the sack survive divided into 3 phases. The foremost stage is exploration, to run into what nature is doing. The 2nd stage is precise observation as well as measurement, to depict nature accurately. The tertiary stage is explanation, to create theories that enable us to empathize nature. Physics reached the 2nd stage alongside Kepler, the tertiary stage alongside Newton. Complexity scientific discipline every bit West defines it, including economic science as well as sociology, remained inward the foremost stage until most the yr 2000, when the era of large information began. The era started abruptly when information became cheaper to shop inward electronic shape than to discard. Storing information tin give the sack survive an automatic process, acre discarding it commonly requires human judgment. The damage of information storage has decreased speedily acre the damage of information discard has decreased slowly. Since 2000, the public has been inundated alongside large data. In every scientific discipline every bit good every bit inward trouble organisation as well as government, databases receive got been storing immense quantities of information. Information at nowadays accumulates much faster than our mightiness to empathize it.

Complexity scientific discipline at the Santa atomic number 26 Institute is driven yesteryear large data, providing abundant information most ecological as well as human affairs. Humans tin give the sack visualize large information most easily when it is presented inward the shape of scaling laws—hence the primary theme of West’s book. But a collection of scaling laws is non a theory. H5N1 theory of complexity would give us answers to deeper questions. Why are at that topographic point 10 K species of birds on this planet but exclusively v K species of mammals? Why are at that topographic point warm-blooded animals but no warm-blooded plants? Why are human societies so oft engaged inward deadly quarrels? What is the destiny of our species? These are questions that large information may illuminate but cannot answer. If complexity scientific discipline e'er moves into the tertiary phase, some of these quondam questions volition survive answered, as well as novel questions volition arise.

West’s foremost chapter, “The Big Picture,” sets the stage for the detailed discussions that follow, alongside a department called “Energy, Metabolism, as well as Entropy,” explaining how i of the basic laws of physics, the 2nd constabulary of thermodynamics, makes life precarious as well as survival difficult. Entropy is disorder. The 2nd constabulary states that entropy inexorably increases inward whatever closed system. West comments, “Like death, taxes, as well as the Sword of Damocles, the Second Law of Thermodynamics hangs over all of us as well as everything around us…. Entropy kills.” His large moving-picture exhibit is seriously one-sided. He does non refer the other side of the picture, the paradox of monastic enjoin as well as disorder—the fact that, inward the existent worlds of astronomy as well as biology, ordered structures emerge spontaneously from disorder. The solar system, inward which planets displace inward an orderly fashion around the sun, emerged from a disordered cloud of gas as well as dust. The fearful symmetry of the tiger as well as the beauty of the peacock emerge from a dead as well as disordered planet.

The astronomer Fang Lizhi published alongside his wife, Li Shuxian, a pop book, Creation of the Universe (1989), which includes the best explanation that I receive got seen of the paradox of monastic enjoin as well as disorder.¹ The explanation lies inward the peculiar deportment of gravity inward the physical world. On the remainder canvas of unloose energy accounting, gravitational unloose energy is a deficit. When you lot are unopen to a massive object, your gravitational unloose energy is minus the amount of unloose energy it would receive got to teach away from the volume all the way to infinity. When you lot walk upward a loma on the earth, your gravitational unloose energy is becoming less negative, but never gets upward to zero. Any object whose motions are dominated yesteryear gravity volition receive got unloose energy decreasing every bit temperature increases as well as unloose energy increasing every bit temperature decreases.

As a effect of the 2nd constabulary of thermodynamics, when unloose energy flows from i such object to another, the hot object volition grow hotter as well as the mutual depression temperature object volition grow colder. That is why the Sun grew hotter as well as the planets grew cooler every bit the solar organisation evolved. In every province of affairs where gravity is dominant, the 2nd constabulary causes local contrasts to increment together alongside entropy. This is truthful for astronomical objects similar the sun, as well as also for large terrestrial objects such every bit thunderstorms as well as hurricanes. The variety of astronomical as well as terrestrial objects, including living creatures, tends to increment alongside time, inward spite of the 2nd law. The development of natural ecologies as well as of human societies is a usage of this pattern. West is manifestly unaware of Fang as well as Li’s insight.

The factual center of West’s volume is contained inward eighty-one numerical diagrams, displaying a large number of scaling laws obeyed yesteryear diverse observed quantities. The foremost diagram, concerning the metabolic charge per unit of measurement of animals, shows twenty-eight dots, each labeled alongside the holler of a warm-blooded creature species, showtime alongside mouse as well as ending alongside elephant. The dots are displayed on a foursquare graph, the horizontal seat of the dot showing the average trunk volume of the species as well as the vertical seat showing its average charge per unit of measurement of consumption of energy. The diagram shows the twenty-eight points lying alongside amazing accuracy on a unmarried instantly line. The gradient of the draw on the page demonstrates the scaling constabulary relating unloose energy consumption to mass. Energy consumption scales alongside the three-quarters mightiness of mass. The 4th mightiness of unloose energy consumption scales alongside the cube of mass. This scaling constabulary holds accurately for mammals as well as birds. Cold-blooded animals such every bit fish as well as reptiles are excluded because they receive got no fixed trunk temperature. Their consumption of unloose energy varies alongside their temperature, as well as their temperature varies alongside the weather.

Similar diagrams display similar scaling laws obeyed yesteryear other quantities. These laws are to a greater extent than oft than non most accurate for anatomy as well as physiology of animals, less accurate for social institutions such every bit cities as well as companies. Figure 10 shows midpoint rates of mammals scaling inversely alongside the one-quarter mightiness of mass. Figure 35 shows the number of patents awarded inward the United States of America scaling alongside the 1.15 mightiness of the size of the population. Figure 36 shows the number of crimes reported inward cities inward Nippon scaling alongside the 1.2 mightiness of population. Figure 75 shows that commercial companies inward the United States receive got a constant decease charge per unit of measurement independent of age—the life expectancy of a companionship at whatever historic current is most 10 years. The brusk lifetime of companies is an essential characteristic of capitalist economics, alongside goodness as well as bad consequences. The goodness effect is to teach rid of failed enterprises, which inward socialist economies are hard to kill as well as proceed to consume upward resources. The bad effect is to take incentives for foresight as well as long-range planning.

The closest that West comes to a theory of complexity is his give-and-take of fractals. H5N1 fractal is a construction alongside large as well as pocket-size branches that aspect similar at all sizes, similar a tree or the blood-vessels of a mammal. When you lot magnify a moving-picture exhibit of a pocket-size slice of it, the resultant looks similar the whole thing. The mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot began the study of fractals inward the 1960s as well as called attending to the ubiquity of fractals inward nature. Since fractal construction is independent of scale, it leads naturally to scaling laws. West discusses inward item the instance of the mammalian blood-vessel system, whose fractal branching evolved to optimize the distribution of nutrients through one-dimensional vessels inward three-dimensional tissues. Optimal branching results inward the observed scaling law, the full blood current scaling alongside the three-quarters mightiness of the mass. Most of the scaling laws inward biological scientific discipline tin give the sack survive understood inward a similar way every bit resulting from the fractal construction of tissues....MUCH MORE