Soybean Export Potential Inwards 2018-19

From the University of Illinois' FarmDoc Weekly Outlook, Dec 10:

The extension of merchandise negotiations alongside Cathay past times Jan 1 in addition to the possibility of a resolution to the electrical current impasse rallied soybean prices later the G-20 summit.  While Cathay is supposedly entering the soybean marketplace inwards the U.S., changes inwards the soybean export forecast await to live minimal at this time.  The potential for strong South American soybean export contest during the marketing twelvemonth is the limiting ingredient inwards expanded U.S. soybean exports despite the possible resolution of the merchandise issue.

The USDA’s World Production Report estimates the size of the 2019 crop for major South American producers (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, in addition to Uruguay) at 7.02 billion bushels.  The electrical current forecast is likely below the end crop guess inwards 2019 past times a well for yous margin due to splendid conditions inwards Brazil.  The crop twelvemonth inwards Brazil witnessed favorable planting in addition to a continuation of splendid growing conditions equally nosotros motion into December. The soybean harvest could stimulate equally presently equally January.  While the actual crop size volition non live known for several months inwards South America, the electrical current weather condition conditions dot to a large Brazilian crop alongside roughly Brazilian observers placing this year’s crop production nigh 4.78 billion bushels, virtually 350 1000000 bushels to a higher house the electrical current USDA forecast.  An increment inwards the USDA forecast of Brazilian production levels appears likely for 2019.  Argentine production projections sit down at 2.04 billion bushels, upward from lastly year’s drought-plagued production order of 1.39 billion bushels.  Overall, the prospects of a large South American soybean crop await proficient on top of the splendid U.S. crop inwards 2018.

Estimates for Brazilian soybean exports inwards 2018-19 sit down at 2.82 billion bushels, upward xxx 1000000 bushels from lastly marketing year.  Additional increases to Brazilian exports await likely inwards the nigh term.  From September to October, Brazilian soybean exports came inwards nigh 552 1000000 bushels, upward 225 1000000 bushels over the same menstruation lastly year.  Over ninety percentage of this full went to China.  On top of the Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans, reports betoken an uptick inwards buying of Brazilian soybeans scheduled for shipment later March 2019 to non-China sources. Soybean prices inwards post-March months inwards Brazil savage below U.S. prices when taking concern human relationship of freight in addition to poly peptide quality.  Plentiful Brazilian supplies in addition to lower prices increment competitiveness for U.S. exports inwards 2019.  The forecast for Argentine exports inwards 2018-19 sits at 294 1000000 bushels, upward 216 1000000 bushels from the lastly marketing year.  South American contest for the soybean export marketplace looks to live quite robust this twelvemonth nether the electrical current merchandise environment.

The 1.9 billion bushel forecast for U.S. soybean exports during the marketing twelvemonth reflects the loss of the Chinese market.  Census information on U.S. soybean exports to Cathay inwards the 2016-17 in addition to 2017-18 marketing years indicated 1.327 billion bushels in addition to 1.036 billion bushels respectively.  Current U.S. Census Bureau merchandise data for soybeans is alone available through Oct simply shows a mere 12.4 1000000 bushels of exports to China, downwards 354 1000000 bushels from the same menstruation lastly year.  U.S. soybean exports typically exhibit a designing of strong export levels inwards the get-go one-half of the marketing twelvemonth in addition to and thence dissipation through the instant one-half of the marketing twelvemonth equally South American production becomes available to the the world market.  Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 somewhat muted version of this designing looks likely this marketing year.  While Chinese exports function on to demo weakness, U.S. exports benefitted from the large part of Brazilian soybeans taken past times China.  The E.U., Egypt, Argentina, in addition to Islamic Republic of Pakistan registered a noticeable increment inwards U.S. imports through October.  Through October, Census Bureau exports sit down at 325 1000000 bushels, downwards 37 percentage from lastly marketing year....MORE

The Dec 17 outlook is "Prospects for Corn Use from Ethanol Production", spell the Dec iii written report asked "Will Pork Industry Have a Better 2019".