Greece: The Long-Run Demographic Consequences Of The Economical Crisis

The nautical chart coloring is unopen plenty to bisque that I had to peer closely to brand certain it wasn't from the Pink'un.
But seriously, the flush is pretty informative

From ekathimerini, September 3:

The Greek economic scheme went off the rails inwards 2009 amongst a large financial deficit, an external electrical current trace of piece of work concern human relationship deficit, a drib inwards productivity, too a saltation inwards world debt. The ensuing crisis flare-up onto the international scene inwards 2010 amongst the firstly of a serial of economical programs amongst partner countries, European institutions, too the IMF, to endeavour too steady the listing economical ship. Eight years afterwards nosotros tin summarize that national income collapsed yesteryear close a quarter, the unemployment charge per unit of measurement peaked at 27.5 percent, too the province went through pregnant political too social turmoil. In to a greater extent than recent years, amongst stops too starts, the economic scheme has begun to marker off too stabilize. We are immediately inwards the “second 5-year period” (2016-2020) of this crisis decade, too approximately interesting information from the firstly 5-year flow are starting to settle downwards equally well, then that nosotros tin produce a reflection close the deeper influence of the economical crisis on Greek society. (Data are understandably preliminary inwards the rut of the present; it takes close five years for criterion to solidify.)

If i wants to empathise the basics of whatever macroeconomy, i has to start yesteryear studying population too demographic data. The macroeconomy is anchored inwards the size too dynamics of the population. There is likewise an of import feedback effect from economical administration to the size of the population too its demographic developments. When an economic scheme is good managed too the fortunes of its citizens are developing adequately, population dynamics tend to endure stable too families conduct keep the financial confidence to conduct keep children. In societies that are poorly governed or conduct keep come upward nether strong economical stress, population dynamics tin endure interrupted too families tin conduct keep a style to exit and/or conduct keep fewer children. There are, of course, many other social, cultural, too personal influences on menage unit of measurement planning too demographic developments, exactly economical confidence is i of the fundamentals that play a role. This “Note for Discussion” presents information from ELSTAT submitted to EUROSTAT on population too demographic developments that offering insight equally to the circular, or inter-active, link betwixt economic science too demographics. This Federal Reserve annotation offers a hypothesis of what may endure going on below the surface. The reader may handgrip or disagree; all intelligence too comments are welcome.

Figure 1 shows the population (POP) of Hellenic Republic since 1960, appended yesteryear the latest projections from the Greek authorities, equally submitted yesteryear ELSTAT to Eurostat. The information are used equally presented too no filtering has been applied. If the information are incorrect, the diagnosis or hypothesis of what is going on may likewise endure incorrect. It goes to present how of import it is to acquaint accurate information without worrying whether these information may endure “pleasant” or “unpleasant.”

The reader volition run into 2 lines inwards Figure 1 on population: an upper dashed line, which shows the demographic projections available inwards 2011 based on information too tendencies that were known at that time. These projections carried through 2060 (a horizon of approximately l years). The lower company trace shows the vintage of projections that I downloaded inwards 2018, too these bear through 2080 (a horizon of approximately lx years). It is at i time evident that ELSTAT/EUROSTAT conduct keep updated the projections considerably, based on information that conduct keep come upward inwards for the flow 2010-2015: the projections for population too population increment conduct keep been significantly revised downward, firstly amongst the onslaught of the economical crisis inwards 2009. By 2060, the population approximate is immediately approximately 2.4 1000000 persons less than were projected inwards the 2011 data. This is critical for authorities policy inwards managing the economy, too nosotros tin dig deeper why this is the case.

Notice inwards Figure 1 that the novel population trace has a pronounced kink inwards 2011; earlier this engagement the population was growing piece of cake too projected to transition to a gradual refuse equally aging laid upward inwards for futurity years. In the novel data, 2011 was a peak too the population has started to refuse steadily thereafter. This coincides amongst the economical recession too the stress this pose on families too lodge to a greater extent than broadly—Greeks started to aspect for their fortunes exterior of the province too outward migrated to other European countries too farther afield—causing the domestic population to decline. It is possible that information volition endure farther revised inwards a side yesteryear side iteration, exactly such a pronounced kink inwards population increment is non oftentimes seen inwards other countries. It is i indicator that the recession had a substantial touching on Greece.

H5N1 smaller population inwards futurity way that the economic scheme volition likewise endure smaller, equally compared amongst the expectations at the firstly of this decade. With fewer persons, at that spot volition endure less consumption too less investment too a lower absolute marker of employment. The potential for the size of the Greek economic scheme (the marker of overall activity) is hereby reduced. Since Hellenic Republic is coming into this projection amongst high debt, the smaller economic scheme way that debt per capita (per individual inwards Greece) is higher than was projected before, too this adds to the challenge how to larn by over fourth dimension the reduction inwards this debt. This underscores the feel that many Greek persons conduct keep that the crisis is yesteryear its most impactful immediate betoken (the recession), exactly the aftermath is far from resolved—the economic scheme volition involve careful data-based administration going frontward to larn by the challenges from high debt too declining population dynamics.

Let us dig i marker deeper too run into what happens to the population of working age—those betwixt 15-64 years of age. ELSTAT/EUROSTAT written report on this subgroup of the population equally well. Figure 2 shows the dynamics of the “working-age population” (WAP) equally reported yesteryear these institutions....MORE