Leave In Addition To The Left Behind

I argued at the destination of terminal twelvemonth that immigration was an attractive number for the right, because it offered the possibility of capturing votes from those who would vote left on economical grounds, exactly who were too socially conservative. It was peculiarly attractive if you lot could convince leftish social conservatives that voting to trim back immigration would ameliorate their economical situation. The European Union plebiscite vote exemplified how successful that strategy could be. The socially conservative vote went to Leave, irrespective of where those voters were on a left correct spectrum (see here).

In this situation, it is understandable that a lot of focus goes to the left/social conservative voters. As voting left clearly correlates amongst income in addition to areas of social deprivation to a greater extent than generally, nosotros acquire stories close the economically left behind Leavers. At the same time, closed to social scientists object, proverb that voting Leave clearly correlates amongst socially conservative views, similar hanging for example. There seems to move a contradiction here, exactly at that topographic point is not. As I argued here, it is the struggle over whether left social conservatives vote on economic science or on their social views that swings these votes. The same betoken could move made for the U.S.A. every bit the UK, peculiarly if nosotros add together inwards race every bit an issue.

Those controlling correct fly media empathize all this. Another post from terminal twelvemonth looked at how economists had shown clear show that Fox tidings was non inwards the draw of piece of employment concern of reflecting their viewers beliefs in addition to voting patterns, exactly inwards moulding them. They did this past times looking at what economists telephone telephone natural experiments: events that inwards this instance influenced whether people watched Fox that had zero to create amongst their politics. Over Wren-Lewis Christmas nosotros were talking close whether at that topographic point were whatever natural experiments for assessing the influence of the Mail or Dominicus inwards the UK. One possibility nosotros discussed was whether the Liverpool boycott of the Dominicus over Hillsborough mightiness move a useful natural experiment.

I thus read this twitter thread from @marwood_lennox. They starting fourth dimension banknote the clear correlation betwixt measures of deprivation past times constituencies in addition to votes inwards the 2017 full general election. They thus demo the imputed European Union plebiscite vote against mensurate of deprivation: apart from the to the lowest degree deprived areas voting to Remain, at that topographic point is no clear correlation. So far much every bit nosotros would facial expression from the analysis above. But it was these 2 tweets that actually caught my attention:

“Deprivation doesn't clearly correlate amongst strength for Remain either. There are 8 >60% Remain seats inwards most deprived decile …. Two of those 8 are inwards really white working course of instruction Liverpool. What happened there?”

Is this the ‘natural experiment’ of Dominicus readership at work?

If entirely social scientific discipline was this easy. There are, unfortunately, enough of other explanations. First, cities tended to vote Remain, it was the towns that did not. Liverpool’s Remain vote was non that dissimilar from Manchester. True Manchester has less needlelike deprivation, exactly if deprivation in addition to voting Leave are uncorrelated, thus what? One ground that cities voted rest is that they convey large universities.

Furthermore, every bit a effect of twitter (thanks everyone), I learnt that the local papers had made much of European Union funding for the docks in addition to elsewhere. There is too a legacy of Irish Gaelic immigration. Liverpool has a strong international tradition based on its port in addition to football game club, latterly reinforced past times beingness a European urban heart in addition to someone of culture. Thus enough of other reasons why Liverpool mightiness move unusually Remain, if that is what they were.

Despite all this, I convey learnt from sense non to allow such difficulties arrive the agency of a potentially interesting result. So I would move really interested if past times endangerment anyone who did proper multivariate analysis of the Leave vote is reading this, in addition to noticed that Liverpool constituencies were, or were not, unusually Remain (given age, didactics etc). Or if anyone else has whatever ideas close natural experiments that mightiness deport on recent paper readership.