Why Voting For Article Fifty May Ruin An Mp's Career

The final fourth dimension I did something similar this was to urge Labour political party members to vote for Smith rather than Corbyn, knowing total good that Corbyn was almost sure to win. Being proved correct on that occasion is no consolation, because I would rather receive got been wrong. This is fifty-fifty to a greater extent than futile, but right away every bit in addition to so I experience a conclusion is most to last made that is both disastrous in addition to irreversible.[1] I every bit good want to say something most the longer term interests of MPs that I receive got non seen said elsewhere.

There are so many principled reasons for MPs to vote against triggering Article 50. Let me summarise what I catch every bit the primary ones here, but this is far from comprehensive.

1. The vote was close, in addition to is advisory. Unlike the Scottish referendum, it excluded xvi in addition to 17 yr olds, who past times the fourth dimension nosotros truly leave of absence volition last able to vote. Demographic trends advise that at closed to fourth dimension inwards the nigh futurity the plebiscite would decease the other way. Migrants from the UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland were excluded, fifty-fifty though they are direct affected past times the vote in addition to legislation is on the table to give them votes for life inwards a UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland election.
   
   
2. The vote was every bit good won on the footing of clear lies of a sort that receive got never been used inwards a UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland election before. There is strong evidence that these lies helped swing votes. I would add together that the broadcast media facilitated the propaganda coming from most of the tabloid press, inwards item past times treating noesis every bit opinion.
   
   
3. The plebiscite was alone most leaving the EU, in addition to non most how nosotros leave of absence the EU. In particular, it was non most leaving the Single Market. We receive got no way of knowing which way a plebiscite on the Single Market would go. May’s logic that the plebiscite was ‘really’ most immigration in addition to that thence nosotros receive got to leave of absence the Single Market is conjecture. Polls on immigration that practise non every bit good banknote the costs of reducing immigration are worthless, similar polls that inquire most cutting taxes.
   
   
4. A proper reply to the plebiscite would last to banknote that many ways be to leave of absence the EU, including staying inwards the Single Market, in addition to allow parliament to create upwards one's head what the UK’s negotiating set should be. The statesman similar reply to such a narrow vote would last to seak the softest of Brexits. The fact that May does non wishing that to hap is an affront to parliamentary democracy. That solitary is argue plenty to vote against.
   
   
5. [Added 30/1/17] What triggering Article 50 truly agency is even so unclear. Is it reversible? Do nosotros receive got to hold off until nosotros leave of absence earlier nosotros tin negotiate novel merchandise agreements alongside the EU? As Rick says, y'all would non central contracts on a theatre alongside these sort of primal uncertainties unresolved. Why has everything to last so rushed?   

But alas, beingness realistic, this is non the footing on which many MPs volition vote. Instead they volition call upwards most their political careers, in addition to the backlash they volition encounter if they vote No to Article 50. But conventional wisdom on this is at best incomplete in addition to quite likely incorrect for many MPs.

The supposition inwards much of the media, encouraged of course of didactics past times the tabloids, is that MPs inwards constituencies that voted Leave volition human face upwards a backlash from angry Leave voters if they personally vote No to triggering Article 50. However it is far from clear that the reveal of Leave voters who would modify their vote on this footing is greater than the reveal of Remain voters who volition practise the opposite. My argue for thinking this is partly the local in addition to national election results since the Brexit votes, where nosotros receive got seen huge swings to the LibDems inwards both Remain in addition to Leave constituencies. It is every bit good because, dissimilar Leave voters, many remain voters are personally affected past times the plebiscite result. They may receive got identify unit of measurement living inwards the EU, or receive got closed colleagues who are from the EU. They may function inwards firms that could good create upwards one's head or last forced to downsize if nosotros leave of absence the Single Market.

If May is defeated on Article 50, she volition almost certainly telephone outcry upwards an immediate election. How volition the fortunes of a MP that voted for Yes to triggering Article 50 compare to whatever that vote No? Labour MPs that vote No volition lose closed to Leave voters, but these are probable to split upwards betwixt Conservatives in addition to UKIP. They may practise this fifty-fifty if they vote Yes because they volition receive got read inwards their papers that Labour is stalling Brexit. Conservative voters that vote No are unlikely to lose many votes to UKIP. Those from either the Conservatives or Labour that vote Yes are likely to lose many Remain voters to the LibDems. How these opposing forces pan out is really hard to judge, in addition to is probable to vary a nifty bargain across constituencies, in addition to without additional data it is far from obvious why MPs should alone worry most Leave voters.

Labour MPs may experience that they are leap to lose badly inwards a quick election because Corbyn is so unpopular. I call upwards that is right, but for every argue why that mightiness larn improve past times 2020 I tin call upwards of reasons why it volition larn worse.

But all this is thinking brusk term. MPs that are non ideologically opposed to the European Union must for certain know that Brexit is really probable to last a disaster. The impact of leaving the Single Market is going to last pretty bad, but every bit the OBR has made clear the impact of reduced immigration from the European Union on the populace finances is every bit good going to last large. To order yourself that this is all uncertain is to deliberately ignore the sentence of the best economists both at habitation in addition to overseas in addition to the major economical institutions. The outlook for the NHS in addition to other populace services is thence dire.

The government’s set is total of contradictions. They are desperate to brand merchandise deals alongside anyone, but are prepared to catch a precipitous autumn inwards merchandise alongside the huge marketplace set that is our closest neighbour. They say that leaving the European Union is to regain sovereignty, but every proficient knows that the major gains from trade, peculiarly for the service orientated UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland economy, come upwards from reducing non-tariff barriers which inevitably compromise sovereignty (look at UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland merchandise to the European Union earlier in addition to afterwards nosotros helped create the Single Market). Do nosotros truly want to receive got dorsum command from Europe alone to give it to Donald Trump?

The political implications of May’s strategy are to a greater extent than speculative, but initial signs are non good. May right away finds herself unable to condemn the immigration policy of President Trump that overtly discriminates against Muslims including UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland MPs, in addition to which is the biggest gift to terrorists since Bush talked most a crusade. (At to the lowest degree when that happened Blair was quick to order him to stop.) May has threatened to plow the UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland into a taxation haven if the European Union practise non catch our demands, ane time once again without parliament having whatever say. All this makes her want to aid the left behind in addition to the but managing into empty words that volition decease a sick joke. She sees reducing immigration every bit an absolute priority, which volition farther wound concern in addition to feed growing UK of Britain in addition to Northern Republic of Ireland xenophobia.

All this agency that Conservative MPs who volition vote alongside the regime because they receive got ambitions for a ministerial career volition discover if they succeed that they volition pass most of their fourth dimension administering cuts. If it passes, the Article 50 vote volition shortly last regarded past times Labour members every bit they right away regard the vote over the Republic of Iraq war, pregnant that those that vote Yes volition discover it really hard to accomplish a senior set inwards the Party. Another comparing alongside similar implications is Suez, closed to other failed travail to regain a lost royal past.

All this should brand MPs really reluctant to base of operations their conclusion on perceived self interest, when that cuts so many ways. They should instead head the words of a good known ex-MP.

“The rootage duty of a fellow member of Parliament is to practise what he thinks inwards his faithful in addition to disinterested sentence is correct in addition to necessary for the honour in addition to security of Great Britain. His mo duty is to his constituents, of whom he is the instance but non the delegate. Burke's famous announcement on this dependent plain is good known. It is alone inwards the 3rd identify that his duty to political party organization or programme takes rank. All these 3 loyalties should last observed, but in that location inwards no doubtfulness of the lodge inwards which they stand upwards nether whatever salubrious manifestation of democracy.” Sir Winston Churchill on the Duties of a Member of Parliament. (Source)

MPs should inquire where stands the honour of Britain when its leader feels that Brexit
prevents her joining leaders inwards Europe in addition to Canada inwards condemning Trump's Muslim ban.

[1] At introduce in that location is no machinery for parliament to halt the procedure of leaving the European Union ane time they trigger A50, whatever Corbyn may imply. Once nosotros leave, rejoining volition almost certainly hateful nosotros would receive got to bring together the Euro, which is non a goodness idea..