Northern Fossil Oil Together With Gas: Michael Reger's Deeply Misleading Tweet
Northern Oil as well as Gas (here, here, here as well as here.
I bring been brusk this stock for some years as well as my stance is that absent sustained high petroleum prices this fellowship volition file bankruptcy.
I besides follow the Twitter line of piece of job concern human relationship of Michael Reger - the company's CEO.
And he has been continuously retweeting this or variants on it:
In some other tweet he says that "$NOG has the most capex flexibility inwards the Williston. Oh, as well as we're hedged at $90."
Lets banking concern fit this out. Northern Oil as well as Gas does bring almost six 1000000 barrels of petroleum hedged at prices that are $20 inwards the coin - roughly $120 million.
This is against $736 1000000 (at end residue sheet) of long term debt. The hedges are non inwards the coin past times 25 per centum of marketplace cap - good non actually - because the debt holders bring commencement claim. The hedges are inwards the coin past times less than xx per centum of the company's debt.
The hedges volition thence repay xx per centum of the company's debt.
The fellowship volition withdraw to pay the ease past times itself from chop-chop diminishing cash flows.
Michael - delight right your tweet accordingly.
Moreover Michael pleads upper-case missive of the alphabet flexibility. Even that is non obvious. The debt covenants require that the fellowship has a electrical current ratio of 1:1. Currently the fellowship is non or as well as then that covenant. The shortfall (more than 120 million) probable gets subtracted from the available line.
The electrical current ratio short-fall seems to locomote close the same equally the hedge gains. I estimate that agency they tin rate the sack pay their electrical current liability brusk autumn alongside hedge gains...
The foreign electrical current ratio
Last quarter revenue was close $120 million. Revenue is probable to autumn internet of hedges.
They bring electrical current accounts payable of $220 million.
You may wonder how yous perchance bring accounts payable of almost twice quarterly revenue (and viii times cost of goods sold).
I volition allow yous function that out.
John
I bring been brusk this stock for some years as well as my stance is that absent sustained high petroleum prices this fellowship volition file bankruptcy.
I besides follow the Twitter line of piece of job concern human relationship of Michael Reger - the company's CEO.
And he has been continuously retweeting this or variants on it:
In some other tweet he says that "$NOG has the most capex flexibility inwards the Williston. Oh, as well as we're hedged at $90."
Lets banking concern fit this out. Northern Oil as well as Gas does bring almost six 1000000 barrels of petroleum hedged at prices that are $20 inwards the coin - roughly $120 million.
This is against $736 1000000 (at end residue sheet) of long term debt. The hedges are non inwards the coin past times 25 per centum of marketplace cap - good non actually - because the debt holders bring commencement claim. The hedges are inwards the coin past times less than xx per centum of the company's debt.
The hedges volition thence repay xx per centum of the company's debt.
The fellowship volition withdraw to pay the ease past times itself from chop-chop diminishing cash flows.
Michael - delight right your tweet accordingly.
Moreover Michael pleads upper-case missive of the alphabet flexibility. Even that is non obvious. The debt covenants require that the fellowship has a electrical current ratio of 1:1. Currently the fellowship is non or as well as then that covenant. The shortfall (more than 120 million) probable gets subtracted from the available line.
The electrical current ratio short-fall seems to locomote close the same equally the hedge gains. I estimate that agency they tin rate the sack pay their electrical current liability brusk autumn alongside hedge gains...
The foreign electrical current ratio
Last quarter revenue was close $120 million. Revenue is probable to autumn internet of hedges.
They bring electrical current accounts payable of $220 million.
You may wonder how yous perchance bring accounts payable of almost twice quarterly revenue (and viii times cost of goods sold).
I volition allow yous function that out.
John
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