Enters Strategic Partnership Amongst Diageo - Maker Of Guinness Beer. Oh Together With A Comment On Trina Solar
convey entered into a strategic partnership alongside Diageo - the maker of Guineess. But nosotros haven't really. We are inwards a pub inwards London knocking dorsum a pint of the dark liquid. Guinness tastes improve inwards the erstwhile country. [It is the erstwhile province to an Australian...]
We straight off convey a commercial organisation alongside Diageo - albeit a temporary (though tasty) one. But that has non stopped us writing a press-release trumpeting this "strategic partnership". I may mail a re-create to the intelligence wires to meet if they volition run it.
In all seriousness they likely would. They ran this:
Being a cynical class of guy - together with knowing that Origin Energy are reputable I checked this release. Here is what Origin said.
I blogged this answer here.
I almost did non postulate to check. When a political party announces a "strategic partnership" together with the press release offers contacts from entirely i side of the bargain so you lot should live on skeptical. Indeed it tin sack hardly live on strategic if entirely i side comments.
There are other strategic partnerships announced yesteryear Trina. In all cases at that spot is no contact given for the "strategic partner", for they i time announced a strategic partnership inwards Italy.
I am going to live on blunt. The Origin press release has equally much pith equally Bronte's "strategic partnership" alongside Guinness. I convey no see most the other strategic arrangements but Trina says some foreign things most Italy. For representative inwards the finally conference telephone band the main operating officeholder said:
It is possible that Italy was taking off just equally he said this - but it seemed unlikely to us. After all the banks inwards Southern Europe were nether sharply increasing fiscal stress at just the fourth dimension of this conference telephone band together with funding for long term projects (like solar) was drying up. I did non believe the statement. Maybe it was truthful - but at that spot is a work alongside statements most insignificant "strategic partnerships". Those statements predispose you lot to non believe farther statements.
So hither is what I believe. I believe Trina is burning cash increasingly fast. So fast that it is inwards deep trouble.
Trina, through operating cash burn downwardly together with uppercase expenditure chewed through $136 1000000 finally quarter. I blogged the calculation here. Chinese banks funded this.
The average selling toll during the quarter was $1.46 per watt (reference given here).
The prices per watt convey fallen to $1.10 or below when priced wholesale.
So revenue per watt is running 36c lower than during the quarter.
The costs per watt convey dropped too. Polysilicon has dropped from say $48 to $38 per kilogram - but exact numbers are difficult to find. At half dozen grams per watt the costs per watt hence dropped 6c. Efficiency gains add together some other 2c reduction inwards costs per watt.
Nonetheless margin per watt volition live on 28c per watt lower than finally quarter.
Production is going to live on (at least) 450 1000000 watts - so aggregate margin is going to live on $112 1000000 lower than finally quarter.
There won't live on whatever taxation paid - or anything similar that - but the companionship looks similar it volition burn downwardly through $136 1000000 addition $112 1000000 inwards cash - to a greater extent than if materials keeps accumulating inwards warehouses - less if the hard-selling they are doing truly works.
$248 1000000 per quarter - or roughly a billion dollars a twelvemonth is a footling flake much for Trina to bear.
Unless at that spot is something dramatically incorrect alongside my calculation Trina is doomed. Not fifty-fifty a Chinese depository fiscal establishment comes at a billion a twelvemonth funding requirement just to rest inwards business.
Now of course of report all of this is my estimates. I tin sack entirely become on populace data together with my ain query together with my ain analysis. I wishing I could just purpose Trina's statements but - together with it powerfulness just live on the PR people who convey done this - Trina has devalued its statements alongside overblown puff pieces most "strategic partnerships".
But I convey problem trusting Trina. And you lot should convey problem trusting me. I am effectively curt the stock. Besides, I convey just entered into a real enjoyable "strategic partnership" alongside Diageo.
And I powerfulness just convey some other Guinness.
John
We straight off convey a commercial organisation alongside Diageo - albeit a temporary (though tasty) one. But that has non stopped us writing a press-release trumpeting this "strategic partnership". I may mail a re-create to the intelligence wires to meet if they volition run it.
In all seriousness they likely would. They ran this:
CHANGZHOU, China, Aug. 17, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --
Trina Solar Limited (TSL) ("Trina Solar" or the "Company"), a leading integrated manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) products from ingots to modules, today announced that through its subsidiary, Trina Solar Commonwealth of Australia Pty Ltd, it has signed a strategic partnership alongside Origin Energy Commonwealth of Australia ("Origin"), the leading Australian integrated unloose energy company.
Under the terms of the agreement, Trina Solar is expected to provide Origin alongside some 22 MW of PV modules over the side yesteryear side twelve months starting from the tertiary quarter of 2011.
"We are delighted to initiate our human relationship alongside Origin, Australia's leading unloose energy retailer together with the country's largest greenish unloose energy retailer alongside important investments inwards renewable unloose energy technologies," said John Susa, Trina Solar's Country Manager of Commonwealth of Australia together with New Zealand. "We are confident that this long-term partnership alongside Origin volition bolster our powerfulness to expand together with strengthen our marketplace seat inwards the residential segment."
Being a cynical class of guy - together with knowing that Origin Energy are reputable I checked this release. Here is what Origin said.
Hi John,
Origin has non let out a release equally it is just constituent of our ongoing provide arrangements together with non textile inwards its ain right. Trina is i of a issue of suppliers nosotros use.
Cheers,
Angus
Angus Guthrie
Group Manager, Investor Relations
I blogged this answer here.
I almost did non postulate to check. When a political party announces a "strategic partnership" together with the press release offers contacts from entirely i side of the bargain so you lot should live on skeptical. Indeed it tin sack hardly live on strategic if entirely i side comments.
There are other strategic partnerships announced yesteryear Trina. In all cases at that spot is no contact given for the "strategic partner", for they i time announced a strategic partnership inwards Italy.
I am going to live on blunt. The Origin press release has equally much pith equally Bronte's "strategic partnership" alongside Guinness. I convey no see most the other strategic arrangements but Trina says some foreign things most Italy. For representative inwards the finally conference telephone band the main operating officeholder said:
I convey been waiting for Italy since I got here. So, nosotros are truly seeing some skilful action finally. And nosotros convey some pickup inwards activity. We meet it. Obviously, our historic Italian concern human relationship is at the utilities. We also meet Castilian accounts that a lot of them truly served projects there. So, afterward much waiting together with unclarity, nosotros are seeing some pickup inwards demand. There is – nosotros nevertheless convey a mix of utility projects inwards commercial rooftop there. And so what nosotros are seeing moved quicker was the materials that was utility that was finishing off together with straight off it’s blending into commercial rooftop.
It is possible that Italy was taking off just equally he said this - but it seemed unlikely to us. After all the banks inwards Southern Europe were nether sharply increasing fiscal stress at just the fourth dimension of this conference telephone band together with funding for long term projects (like solar) was drying up. I did non believe the statement. Maybe it was truthful - but at that spot is a work alongside statements most insignificant "strategic partnerships". Those statements predispose you lot to non believe farther statements.
So hither is what I believe. I believe Trina is burning cash increasingly fast. So fast that it is inwards deep trouble.
Trina, through operating cash burn downwardly together with uppercase expenditure chewed through $136 1000000 finally quarter. I blogged the calculation here. Chinese banks funded this.
The average selling toll during the quarter was $1.46 per watt (reference given here).
The prices per watt convey fallen to $1.10 or below when priced wholesale.
So revenue per watt is running 36c lower than during the quarter.
The costs per watt convey dropped too. Polysilicon has dropped from say $48 to $38 per kilogram - but exact numbers are difficult to find. At half dozen grams per watt the costs per watt hence dropped 6c. Efficiency gains add together some other 2c reduction inwards costs per watt.
Nonetheless margin per watt volition live on 28c per watt lower than finally quarter.
Production is going to live on (at least) 450 1000000 watts - so aggregate margin is going to live on $112 1000000 lower than finally quarter.
There won't live on whatever taxation paid - or anything similar that - but the companionship looks similar it volition burn downwardly through $136 1000000 addition $112 1000000 inwards cash - to a greater extent than if materials keeps accumulating inwards warehouses - less if the hard-selling they are doing truly works.
$248 1000000 per quarter - or roughly a billion dollars a twelvemonth is a footling flake much for Trina to bear.
Unless at that spot is something dramatically incorrect alongside my calculation Trina is doomed. Not fifty-fifty a Chinese depository fiscal establishment comes at a billion a twelvemonth funding requirement just to rest inwards business.
Now of course of report all of this is my estimates. I tin sack entirely become on populace data together with my ain query together with my ain analysis. I wishing I could just purpose Trina's statements but - together with it powerfulness just live on the PR people who convey done this - Trina has devalued its statements alongside overblown puff pieces most "strategic partnerships".
But I convey problem trusting Trina. And you lot should convey problem trusting me. I am effectively curt the stock. Besides, I convey just entered into a real enjoyable "strategic partnership" alongside Diageo.
And I powerfulness just convey some other Guinness.
John
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