Investing Amongst Icarus

From Epsilon Theory:

The current of air blows where it wishes, together with you lot take away heed the audio of it, but cannot order where it comes from together with where it goes.
― The Bible, John 3:8

As Narrative abstractions — cartoons — travel our short-hand for things that used to bring meaning, our models travel to a greater extent than together with to a greater extent than untethered from the reality they seek to reproduce. When current of air becomes the thing-that-makes-the-leaves-move, hence current of air becomes a acquit rubbing his dorsum on the bark.

He that breaks a matter to observe out what it is has left the path of wisdom.
― The Lord of the Rings, J.R.R. Tolkien

Pursuing amend returns past times uncovering absolute truths well-nigh the companies together with governments nosotros invest inward is non a serious venture inward the expression upward of markets rife amongst Narrative abstractions. It is a smiley-faced lie, a right-sounding thought that doesn’t work, together with which nosotros know doesn’t work. Selling the thought that it does to clients is the territory of the raccoon together with the coyote. We tin pursue it, or nosotros tin practise the correct things for ourselves together with our clients. But non both.

Disneyland is presented equally imaginary inward social club to brand us believe that the residual is real, whereas all of Los Angeles together with the America that surrounds it are no longer real, but belong to the hyperreal social club together with to the social club of simulation. It is no longer a enquiry of a imitation representation of reality (ideology) but of concealing the fact that the existent is no longer real…
― Simulacra together with Simulation, Jean Baudrillard (1981)

How does Wall Street maintain the respectability of dishonest businesses? By declaring victory over straw men — active management is dead! Hedge funds lost the Buffett bet, beta won! Risk parity / vol-targeting / AI funds / quant funds are to blame! If you lot must sell that L.A. is real, you lot must create Disneyland.

“All right,” said Susan. “I’m non stupid. You’re maxim humans need… fantasies to brand life bearable.”

REALLY? AS IF information technology WAS SOME KIND OF PINK PILL? NO. HUMANS NEED FANTASY TO BE HUMAN. TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE FALLING ANGELS MEETS THE RISING APE.

“Tooth fairies? Hogfathers? Little—”

YES. AS PRACTICE. YOU HAVE TO START OUT LEARNING TO BELIEVE THE LITTLE LIES.

“So nosotros tin believe the large ones?”

YES. JUSTICE. MERCY. DUTY. THAT SORT OF THING.

“They’re non the same at all!”

YOU THINK SO? THEN TAKE THE UNIVERSE AND GRIND information technology DOWN TO THE FINEST POWDER AND SIEVE information technology THROUGH THE FINEST SIEVE AND THEN SHOW ME ONE ATOM OF JUSTICE, ONE MOLECULE OF MERCY. AND YET — Death waved a hand. AND YET YOU ACT AS IF THERE IS SOME IDEAL ORDER IN THE WORLD, AS IF THERE IS SOME…SOME RIGHTNESS IN THE UNIVERSE BY WHICH information technology MAY BE JUDGED.

“Yes, but people bring got to believe that, or what’s the point—”

MY POINT EXACTLY.
 ― Hogfather, Terry Pratchett (1997)

So long equally the authorities requires fiscal markets to human activity equally a utility, together with hence long equally it makes to a greater extent than feel for large tech companies to hire evangelists than CEOs — until the farmer comes out amongst his gun – nosotros bring solely a few choices:

1. We tin hold upward raccoons: We tin recognize the overwhelming influence of abstractions together with hold to sell products together with ideas that don’t.
2. We tin hold upward coyotes: We tin recognize the overwhelming influence of abstractions together with DESIGN novel products together with ideas that don’t.
3. We tin hold upward victims: We tin allow the raccoons together with coyotes run rampant over the farm.
4. We tin insulate: We tin force dorsum from the tabular array together with endeavour to practise the things that aren’t abstractions. Real things. Physical things. Things that lay spendable currency inward our accounts.
5. We tin engage: We tin practise our best to yell upward well-nigh how to alter our investment strategies together with processes to response to abstraction-driven markets.

These aren’t mutually exclusive, although solely 2 are worthwhile. Ben’s deoxyribonucleic acid is long vol, hence he wrote well-nigh how to insulate. My deoxyribonucleic acid is brusk vol. This annotation is commencement inward a serial on how to engage.

Speaking of DNA, in that place are few fields of report I observe equally thrilling equally the intersection of anthropology together with genetic geneaology. What I hateful past times that is how people lived, died together with moved, together with how their cultures together with lineages moved amongst them. Yes, if kicking off notes amongst the erstwhile King James didn’t give you lot plenty of a hint, I’m a large hitting at parties.

Some of the appeal of genetic anthropology comes from the uncomplicated pleasures it offers, similar the satisfaction of watching white supremacist idiots discovery that they are mutts merely similar the residual of us.
The bit appeal is the grand scale of ancestry together with human movement, fifty-fifty over cosmologically infintestimal periods of time. This appeal is timeless. For example, inward a legend mutual to 3 of the world’s groovy religions, God promises to multiply Abraham’s descendants equally the stars of the sky together with equally the sand on the seashore. It’s a pretty attractive promise, but temper your excitement — it was a vantage for beingness a hair’s breadth away from murdering his son. The promises are poetic, of course, but the reach of the 2 is surprisingly different.

There are somewhere around 100 billion to i trillion stars inward the Milky Way, an approximate which would vary based on how you lot estimated the galaxy’s total majority through the gravity it exerted together with based on what you lot assumed was the average type of star. We’ve discovered a Wolf-Rayet star inward the Magellanic Cloud amongst majority possibly 300 times that of our sun, for example. It is hence much larger than our Sun that its surface would attain almost a tertiary of the electrical current distance to Mercury. Icarus wouldn’t stand upward a chance. On the other hand, we’ve discovered a crimson dwarf solely xix light-years away amongst less than 10% of the majority of the sun. But the 100 billion to i trillion arrive at is a fair estimate. basis has already seen 100 billion human lives. It volition (hopefully) run across its trillionth at some indicate betwixt the twelvemonth 2500 together with 3000, if y’all could halt killing each other. Still, if you’re willing to ignore that nosotros tin run across stars from other galaxies, too, I yell upward nosotros tin prematurely give this i to Abraham.
As for the sand, in that place are well-nigh vii or 8 quintillion grains on the earth. There’s merely no way, fifty-fifty if Elon manages to teach us off this planet earlier the adjacent majority extinction event.

Interestingly, if you lot expect backward, that isn’t quite true. When it comes to lineage, exponential math doesn’t ever travel going forward. One duet dies without whatever offspring, piece some other has a dozen children. But it ever plant going backward. Everyone has 2 parents together with iv grandparents. Based on most of those traditions asset that Abraham lived around 2,000 BC, nosotros tin approximate that the average living soul has well-nigh 1.5 quindecillion ancestors from that time. Given that in that place were solely well-nigh 72 i one m thousand people hold upward at the time, that agency that each of those individuals, on average, shows upward inward your household unit of measurement tree well-nigh twenty duodecillion times. That’s a twenty amongst 39 zeros. Congratulations! Math is amazing, together with you lot are inbred.

The tertiary appeal is that the actually interesting findings are new. Very new. Anthropologists, of course, bring theorized well-nigh the propagation together with spread of cultures through comparative review of ancient art, tools, jewelry, burial sites together with artifacts for centuries. Linguists tin lean on anthropological techniques, but tin also compare similar or derived grammar, vocabulary, together with the similar to seat how languages originated together with spread. Maybe fifty-fifty some feel of where they came from. deoxyribonucleic acid has been used to prepare together with cultivate theories well-nigh human migrations together with the spread of cultures for a shorter time, but inward earnest starting inward the slowly 1990s into the early on 2000s. These studies bring principally relied on the deoxyribonucleic acid of living individuals. Scientists examine electrical current populations together with theorize how ancient populations would bring had to migrate to create the electrical current distribution of diverse genetic admixtures — archetypes of varying compositions that tin hold upward generalized, similar “Near Eastern Farmers.”...MORE