Hbr: Why The Automation Smash Could Move Followed Past Times A Bust

Bain & Co. writing at the Harvard Business Review, March 18:

You may non endure sharing your travel alongside a robot yet, precisely the adjacent moving ridge of automation has begun. Humanoid service robots, machine learning algorithms in addition to autonomous logistics volition supersede millions of service workers inwards the coming decade. Experts are rushing to forecast the probable impact on jobs. But most projections overlook 2 powerful forces that volition combine alongside automation to reshape the global economic scheme yesteryear 2030: speedily aging populations in addition to rising inequality.

The collision of these 3 forces sets the phase for a 10- to 15-year economical nail followed yesteryear a bust. An aging workforce, advances inwards automation, in addition to growing income inequality indicate to an era of rapid in addition to volatile change—and greater economical disruption than nosotros bring seen over the yesteryear sixty years. In the coming decade extremes are probable to boot the bucket to a greater extent than extreme.

How would this boom-bust cycle probable play out? As populations age, labor forcefulness growth volition slow, triggering labor scarcity inwards a growing number of industries. Faced alongside labor shortages, companies volition accelerate their investment inwards automation technologies. Our interrogation shows incremental upper-case missive of the alphabet investment inwards automation could achieve $8 trillion inwards the United States of America of America yesteryear 2030. That translates to nigh $5 trillion inwards cyberspace accumulation to the United States of America of America upper-case missive of the alphabet stock, increasing upper-case missive of the alphabet per worker to a cyberspace figure nearly 1.5 times higher than today.

The magnitude of the investment inwards automation inwards the coming decade is probable to endure greater inwards scale than inwards previous periods because it volition primarily touching on the service sector, in addition to it volition spread through advanced economies every bit good every bit parts of the developing world. An $8 trillion investment nail would resultant inwards average annual United States of America of America growth of nigh 3% in addition to roughly 60% to a greater extent than economical output inwards 2030 than inwards 2015.

Typically, inwards an investment nail of this kind, render growth creates the need for to a greater extent than supply—a virtuous cycle of growth. In the early on 2020s, rapid investment inwards automation would probable offset a piddling to a greater extent than than one-half the negative impact of automation on employment, easing the need constraint on growth in addition to potentially mitigating the immediate displacement of millions of workers. But yesteryear the cease of the 2020s, automation could eliminate 20% to 25% of electrical flow United States of America of America jobs—40 i one 1000 thousand workers—hitting middle- to low-income workers the hardest. At the same time, many of the companies that invested heavily inwards automation volition endure saddled alongside assets that are out of pace alongside demand.
That’s the crucial pin betwixt nail in addition to bust. As the investment moving ridge recedes, it risks leaving inwards its wake deeply unbalanced economies inwards which income is concentrated amid those most probable to relieve in addition to invest, non consume. Growth at that indicate would boot the bucket deeply demand-constrained, exposing the total magnitude of labor marketplace disruption temporarily hidden from persuasion yesteryear the investment boom.

Consumers who bring lost their jobs to automation volition pass less, putting farther downward pressure level on demand. By the tardily 2020s, unemployment in addition to wage pressures may transcend levels next the Great Recession inwards 2009. Income inequality, having grown steadily for a decade, could approach or transcend historical peaks, choking off economical growth....MORE

Here is the Feb 7, 2017 number of Bain's 'Insights":

Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation in addition to Inequality

Executive summary

Demographics, automation in addition to inequality bring the potential to dramatically reshape our globe inwards the 2020s in addition to beyond. Our analysis shows that the collision of these forces could trigger economical disruption far greater than nosotros bring experienced over the yesteryear sixty years (see Figure 1). The aim of this written report yesteryear Bain's Macro Trends Group is to item how the impact of aging populations, the adoption of novel automation technologies in addition to rising inequality volition probable combine to hand ascent to novel trouble organisation risks in addition to opportunities. These gathering forces already pose challenges for businesses in addition to investors. In the adjacent decade, they volition combine to practise an economical climate of increasing extremes precisely may too trigger a decade-plus investment boom.

In the US, a novel moving ridge of investment inwards automation could receive every bit much every bit $8 trillion inwards incremental investments in addition to abruptly elevator involvement rates. By the cease of the 2020s, automation may eliminate 20% to 25% of electrical flow jobs, hitting middle- to low-income workers the hardest. As investments superlative in addition to and hence decline—probably around the cease of the 2020s to the foremost of the 2030s—anemic need growth is probable to constrain economical expansion, in addition to global involvement rates may i time to a greater extent than examination cypher percent. Faced alongside marketplace imbalances in addition to growth-stifling levels of inequality, many societies may reset the government's travel inwards the marketplace.

The analysis in addition to trouble organisation insights inwards this written report tin aid leaders pose these changes inwards context in addition to consider the effects they volition bring on their companies, their industries in addition to the global economy....MORE 

And the Jan written report (68 page PDF):
LABOR 2030: THE COLLISION OF DEMOGRAPHICS,  AUTOMATION AND INEQUALITY