World Agricultural Provide Take Away Estimates—December 2018

Meh.
Soybean prices upwardly a little, corn downwards a little, wheat downwards over 1%.
From AgWeb:

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced imports, together with larger ending stocks. Imports are lowered based on observed merchandise to date. Corn used to make ethanol is reduced fifty 1000000 bushels to 5.6 billion, based on the nigh recent information from the Grain Crushings together with Co-Products Production study together with weekly ethanol production information equally reported yesteryear the Energy Information Administration for the calendar month of November. These information imply corn used for ethanol during the September to Nov quarter declined relative to the prior twelvemonth for the get-go fourth dimension since 2012. With no other role changes, ending stocks are upwardly 45 1000000 bushels from final month. The season-average corn cost received yesteryear producers is unchanged at a substance of $3.60 per bushel merely the hit is narrowed v cents on each terminate to $3.25 to $3.95 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast 0.3 1000000 tons higher to 1,373.6 million. The 2018/19 unusual coarse grain outlook is for larger production, together with virtually unchanged consumption together with ending stocks relative to final month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher amongst increases for Ukraine, the EU, together with Thailand to a greater extent than than offsetting reductions for South Africa together with Canada.  European Union corn production is higher reflecting a larger forecast for Romania. Ukraine corn production is raised based on harvest results to date, together with if realized, this month’s yield forecast would surpass the previous tape ready during 2016/17 yesteryear nearly twenty percent. South Africa corn production is lowered equally dry out planting atmospheric condition are expected to trim back area. Canada corn output is downwards on declines inwards both expanse together with yield.  Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, merely lowered for Mexico. Imports are raised for Vietnam, Canada, Japan, Iran, together with Colombia, amongst partially offsetting reductions for Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya together with Venezuela. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher than final month, to a greater extent than oft than non reflecting increases for the EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Ukraine, together with Japan, that to a greater extent than than offset declines for Brazil, Canada, together with South Africa.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this calendar month is for unchanged supplies, lower exports, together with higher ending stocks. Wheat exports are lowered 25 1000000 bushels to 1.0 billion amongst all of the reduction inwards Hard Red Winter (HRW) on historically depression exports for this shape inwards the get-go one-half of the 2018/19 marketing twelvemonth (MY). The reduction inwards HRW is partially offset yesteryear higher exports of Hard Red Spring together with Soft Red Winter. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are raised 25 1000000 bushels to 974 million, which are withal downwards xi per centum from final year. Based on NASS monthly prices reported to appointment together with cost expectations for the residual of the MY, the projected season-average farm cost is upwardly $0.05 per bushel at the substance amongst the hit narrowed to $5.05 to $5.25.

World 2018/19 wheat supplies are increased 0.8 1000000 tons equally additional Russian carry- inwards stocks together with a larger Canadian crop to a greater extent than than offset a reduction inwards Australian  production.   Based on the updated ABARES estimate, Australia’s production is lowered yesteryear 500,000 tons to 17.0 million. This would endure the lowest Australian wheat output since 2007/08. Canada’s wheat production is raised 300,000 tons to 31.8 million, based on the latest guess yesteryear Statistics Canada.

Projected global 2018/19 merchandise is lower, equally reduced Australian, EU, together with U.S. exports are partly offset yesteryear higher Russian exports, which are increased 1.5 1000000 tons to 36.5 million. Russian Federation together with other Black Sea suppliers proceed to terminate European Union together with U.S. exports inwards several markets inwards the get-go one-half of 2018/19 merely are expected to endure less competitive inwards the minute one-half based on reduced exportable supplies. Australia’s wheat exports are lowered 1.0 1000000 tons to 10.5 1000000 equally its export prices are expected to rest uncompetitive together with to a greater extent than supplies are consumed domestically for feed. Global ending stocks are raised 1.4 1000000 tons to 268.1 million, primarily on increases for the European Union together with the U.S.A. of America merely are iv per centum lower than final year’s tape 279.9 million....MORE