Natural Gas: Noaa's U.S.Winter Outlook (Now Alongside To A Greater Extent Than El Niño)

We haven't been posting on U.S. natural gas futures because, at to the lowest degree every bit far every bit blogging goes, it has been untradeable. It mightiness hold upward doable if the weblog was posted inwards machine-readable format in addition to delivered via ultra-high-speed microwave relays amongst ultra depression latency. Maybe.

So instead we've been focusing on minute in addition to tertiary derivative materials similar freight rates or transportation companionship stocks when what the public is craving is highly leveraged (accurate) directional bets.
Or something.

Look at this:

The amount of natural gas inwards storage is non solely lower than the 5-year average, it's been setting novel five-year, year-on-year, lows. You would holler upward the futures would hold upward at to the lowest degree $5.00. Instead:

They can't seem to teach much to a higher house $3.25.

There is a lot of gas around, inwards the U.S., unconventional (shale) supplies direct maintain gone from 5% to 40% of full production inwards simply over a decade, the concluding of the Australian mega-projects simply started delivering this calendar week in addition to Russia's Yamal gas is ramping upward fast but still....$3.25?

Here's 1 to a greater extent than slice of the puzzle from the National Oceanic in addition to Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center interpreted yesteryear the ENSO blog:

October 22, 2018

The air is starting to experience crisp, the leaves are changing, in addition to the scent of pumpkin spice lattes are filling your favorite java shops.  This tin hand the sack solely hateful 1 matter – it’s fourth dimension for my annual post service on NOAA’s expectations for the upcoming winter!  And 1 time again, 1 of the primal players is flora inwards the tropical Pacific.  In contrast amongst the concluding two years, when nosotros were looking at potential La Niña development, this twelvemonth we’re waiting to encounter if El Niño volition teach inwards in fourth dimension to impact winter.  Without farther ado, let’s accept a expression at NOAA’s 2018-19 Winter Temperature in addition to Precipitation Outlook in addition to encounter how ENSO has affected this forecast.

As usual: Outlooks are probabilistic, in addition to hence no guarantees
Wait, simply 1 to a greater extent than matter before jumping to the outlooks.  I 1 time to a greater extent than remind readers (if this seems repetitive, well, it is) that these forecasts are provided inwards damage of probabilities (% chance) for below, near, or to a higher house average outcomes amongst the maps showing solely the most probable final result (1).  Because the probabilities on these in addition to all CPC outlook maps are less than 100%, in that place is no guarantee you lot volition encounter temperature or atmospheric precipitation departures from normal that check the color on the map.  As we’ve explained inwards earlier weblog posts, fifty-fifty when 1 final result is to a greater extent than probable than another, in that place is nonetheless ever a run a peril that a less favored final result volition occur.  And inwards fact, for the forecasts to hold upward reliable (a critical business office of a probabilistic forecast), less probable outcomes MUST hap from fourth dimension to time.

Outlook for 2018/19 wintertime
Finally, the outlooks!  Both the temperature in addition to atmospheric precipitation outlooks depend to a sure extent on typical El Niño impacts, but forecasters holler upward a weak El Niño lawsuit is most likely. This agency that despite the potential for El Niño, confidence inwards this outlook is less than nosotros had than during recent strong events similar inwards the winter of 2015/16 (more on confidence below).

This lower confidence is reflected inwards fairly pocket-sized probabilities for the temperature outlook, amongst the largest probabilities solely betwixt 50-60% for to a higher house normal temperatures inwards Hawaii, Alaska, in addition to parts of the Pacific Northwest in addition to northern Rockies.  The other shaded regions on the map quest probabilities betwixt 33-50%, important that the forecast solely tilts modestly towards to a higher house normal temperatures.  And spell no areas of the solid lay down are favored to direct maintain below normal temperatures, it sure wouldn’t hold upward surprising for some areas to experience below normal temperatures this winter.  This would hold upward most probable inwards the white areas labeled EC (more on that later).

Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than green wintertime (blue colors) or much warmer than green wintertime (red), or where the probability of a mutual coldness winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal wintertime are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the run a peril of that outcome (not the bigger the difference from average). NOAA Climate.gov map, based on information from NOAA CPC. 

Similarly, the atmospheric precipitation outlook is too much less confident (lower probabilities) than the forecast for the concluding El Niño winter. The designing does resemble the typical atmospheric precipitation designing seen inwards an average El Niño, amongst above-average atmospheric precipitation favored over much of the southern tier in addition to southern Alaska, in addition to amongst below-average atmospheric precipitation most probable inwards the northern Rockies, closed to the Great Lakes in addition to inwards Hawaii.  However, the probabilities are much lower than typical for an El Niño winter, reflecting greater doubtfulness over what may happen. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 50% run a peril is exceeded solely inwards northern Florida in addition to southern Georgia, in addition to inwards Hawaii.

Places where the forecast odds favor a much drier than green wintertime (brown colors) or much wetter than green wintertime (blue-green), or where the probability of a dry out winter, a moisture winter, or a near-normal wintertime are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the run a peril of that outcome (not the bigger the difference from average). NOAA Climate.gov map, based on information from NOAA CPC.

Both maps include blank regions where neither above-, nor near-, nor below-normal is favored. These areas (shown inwards white in addition to labeled EC for “equal chances”), direct maintain the same run a peril for above-, near-, or below-normal (33.33%). This doesn’t hateful that near-average temperature or atmospheric precipitation is expected this wintertime inwards those regions, but rather that there’s no contention inwards the odds toward whatever outcome.  And every bit mentioned earlier, the blank portion inwards the temperature map has the greatest run a peril of existence colder than average this winter.

El Niño: Where’s the confidence?
In ii of my earliest posts for the ENSO Blog, I wrote nigh the human relationship betwixt El Niño in addition to wintertime precipitation in addition to temperature, presenting figures showing atmospheric precipitation in addition to temperature differences from average for the xx prior El Niño episodes from 1950-2013.  Here those figures are updated below to include events through the 2015/16 El Niño.   An of import subject emerges from these ii figures: inwards damage of U.S. impacts, no ii El Niño episodes are the same, in addition to wintertime atmospheric precipitation in addition to temperature give-up the ghost less consistent every bit the pull of El Niño decreases....

...MUCH MORE

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That was throttled dorsum inwards 2011:

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