Meet The Guy Who Taught Nib Gates Almost Energy

A repost from March 23.
We are fans, to a greater extent than after the jump.
The solely other mortal I tin intend of who was every bit clear-eyed virtually the dependent plain was David J.C. MacKay, to a greater extent than on him after the restrain every bit well.

From the magazine Science, March 21:

Meet Vaclav Smil, the homo who has quietly shaped how the world thinks virtually energy

As a teenager inward the 1950s, Vaclav Smil spent a lot of fourth dimension chopping wood. He lived alongside his identify unit of measurement inward a remote town inward what was together with hence Czechoslovakia, nestled inward the mountainous Bohemian Forest. On walks he could regard the Hohenbogen, a high ridge inward neighboring West Germany; less visible was the minefield designed to forestall Czechs from escaping across the border. Then it was dorsum home, splitting logs every 4 hours to stoke the iii stoves inward his home, 1 downstairs together with 2 up. Thunk. With each stroke his body, fueled past times goulash together with grain, helped gratuitous the sun's energy, transiently captured inward the logs. Thunk. It was repetitive together with tough work. Thunk. It was clear to Smil that this was hardly an efficient agency to live.

Throughout his career, Smil, mayhap the world's inaugural of all thinker on liberate energy of all kinds, has sought clarity. From his identify business office close the University of Manitoba (UM) inward Winnipeg, Canada, the 74-year-old academic has churned out dozens of books over the past times 4 decades. They piece of work through a host of topics, including China's environmental problems together with Japan's dietary transition from plants to meat. The prose is dry, together with they rarely sell to a greater extent than than a few one 1000 copies. But that has non prevented some of the books—particularly those exploring how societies have got transitioned from relying on 1 source of energy, such every bit wood, to another, such every bit coal—from profoundly influencing generations of scientists, policymakers, executives, together with philanthropists. One ardent fan, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates inward Redmond, Washington, claims to have got read nearly all of Smil's work. "I hold off for novel Smil books," Gates wrote lastly December, "the agency some people hold off for the adjacent Star Wars movie."

Now, every bit the world faces the daunting challenge of trying to curb climate alter past times weaning itself from fossil fuels, Smil's piece of work on liberate energy transitions is getting to a greater extent than attending than ever. But his message is non necessarily 1 of hope. Smil has forced climate advocates to reckon alongside the vast inertia sustaining the modern world's dependence on fossil fuels, together with to inquiry many of the rosy assumptions underlying scenarios for a rapid shift to alternatives. "He's a slayer of bullshit," says David Keith, an liberate energy together with climate scientist at Harvard University. 

Give Smil five minutes together with he'll pick apart 1 cherished scenario after another. Germany's solar revolution every bit an representative for the world to follow? An extraordinarily inefficient approach, given how trivial sunlight the province receives, that hasn't reduced that nation's reliance on fossil fuels. Electric semitrailers? Good for trivial to a greater extent than than hauling the weight of their ain batteries. Wind turbines every bit the embodiment of a low-carbon future? Heavy equipment powered past times oil had to dig their foundations, Smil notes, together with kilns fired alongside natural gas baked the concrete. And their steel towers, gleaming inward the sun? Forged alongside coal.

"There's a lot of hopey-feely going on inward the liberate energy policy community," says David Victor, an goodness on international climate policy at the University of California, San Diego. And Smil "revels inward the capability to demo those falsehoods."

But Smil is non merely a naysayer. He accepts the sobering reality of climate change—though he is dubious of much climate modeling—and believes nosotros demand to cut back our reliance on fossil fuels. He has tried to cut back his ain carbon footprint, edifice an energy-efficient identify together with adopting a by together with large vegetarian diet. He sees his academic piece of work every bit offering a cleareyed, realistic assessment of the challenges ahead—not every bit a justification for inaction. And he says he has no ax to grind. "I have got never been incorrect on these major liberate energy together with environmental issues," he says, "because I have got null to sell."

Despite Smil's reach—some of the world's most powerful banks together with bureaucrats routinely inquire for his advice—he has remained intensely private. Other experts tap trip the lite fantastic toe for attending together with pursue TED talks. But Smil is a throwback, largely letting his books speak for themselves. He loathes speaking to the press (and opened upwards to Science solely out of a sense of duty to The MIT Press, his longtime publisher). "I actually don't intend I have got anything special to say," he says. "It's out at that spot if you lot desire to know it."

An Iron Curtain childhood
This past times December, Smil stepped out of a hotel inward Washington, D.C., together with pulled on a knit cap—he'd allow no wasted heat, especially given a persistent caput cold. He had given a lecture the previous 24-hour interval together with straight off was making a beeline for a favorite spot: the National Gallery of Art. He was a regular inward the nation's majuscule during the 1980s together with '90s, consulting alongside the World Bank, the Central Intelligence Agency, together with other authorities agencies. But the United States's safety clampdown after 9/11—its the increasing political dysfunction—soured him on the country's leaders. "This authorities is hence inept," he said. "It cannot fifty-fifty run itself inward the most basic way."

Still, Smil can't milk shiver his affection for the United States. It goes dorsum to his childhood: During World War II, U.S. soldiers—not Soviet troops—liberated his portion from the Nazis. And it was to the United States that Smil together with his wife, Eva, fled inward 1969, after the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia to stymie a political uprising.

Nothing was exceptional virtually his childhood, Smil says. His begetter was a police force officeholder together with and hence worked inward manufacturing; his woman raise kept the books for a psychiatric hospital's kitchen. But fifty-fifty every bit a boy, he was aware of the miasma of falsehood that surrounded him inward Cold War Czechoslovakia, together with it spurred his abide by for facts. "I'm the creation of the communist state," he says, recalling how, every bit a child, he heard that the Soviet Union had increased production of rider cars past times 1000% inward a unmarried year. "I looked at it together with said, ‘Yeah, but you lot started from nothing.’" Officials would claim they had exceeded their nutrient plan, yet oranges were never available. "It was hence unreal together with fake," Smil says. "They taught me to abide by reality. I exactly don't stand upwards for whatever nonsense."

As an undergraduate, Smil studied the natural sciences at Charles University inward Prague. He lived inward an quondam converted cloister. Its thick rock walls kept it chilly, summertime together with winter. And inward the start of Smil's personal liberate energy transitions, oestrus came non from wood, but from coal—hard dark anthracite from Kladno or muddy chocolate-brown lignite from North Bohemia.

He got to indulge his curiosity, taking 35 classes a week, 10 months a year, for five years. "They taught me nature, from geology to clouds," he says. But Smil decided that a traditional scientific career was non for him. No lab bench called: He was after the large picture.

After graduation, he also realized that his hereafter would non live inward his homeland: He refused to bring together the Communist Party, undermining his chore prospects. He worked inward a regional planning business office patch Eva pursued her medical degree. After Soviet troops invaded, many friends together with neighbors panicked together with left. But the dyad waited for Eva's graduation, dreading a locomote ban. They finally departed inward 1969, exactly months earlier the authorities imposed a locomote blockade that would lastly for decades. "That was non a pocket-size sacrifice, you lot know?" Smil says. "After doing that, I'm non going to sell myself for photovoltaics or fusion or whatever together with start waving banners. Your past times ever leads to who you lot are."

The Smils ended upwards at Pennsylvania State University inward State College, where Vaclav completed a doctorate inward geography inward 2 years. With trivial money, they rented rooms from a professor's widow, together with Smil made some other liberate energy transition: Periodically, an oil truck arrived to refuel the basement furnace. Smil together with hence took the start chore offering he received, from UM. He's been at that spot ever since.

For decades until his retirement, Smil taught introductory environmental scientific discipline courses. Each twelvemonth ended alongside a 10-question, multiple choice terminal exam, alongside a twist: "There could live no right answer, or every respond was correct, together with every combination inward between," says Rick Baydack, chair of the environmental scientific discipline subdivision at UM, who was 1 time Smil's student.

Otherwise, Smil was a ghost inward his department, taking on solely a few graduate students. Since the 1980s, he has shown upwards at exactly 1 faculty meeting. But every bit long every bit he kept instruction together with turning out highly rated books, that was fine for the school. "He's a combat of a recluse together with likes to piece of work on his own," Baydack says. "He's continued downward a path he prepare for himself. What's happening around him doesn't actually matter."

Rootless bohemian cosmopolitan
Today, Smil straddles the line of piece of work betwixt scientist together with intellectual, flashing the tastes of a "rootless bohemian cosmopolitan," every bit his quondam communist masters used to telephone cry upwards him. He's fluent inward a flurry of languages. He's a tea snob together with foodie who is reluctant to swallow out because hence much eating seat nutrient is straight off premade. Stand inward a garden together with he tin tell you lot the Latin names of many of the plants. He's an fine art lover: Mention the Prado Museum inward Madrid together with he powerfulness tell you lot the hush-hush of finding five minutes without crowds to appreciate Diego Velázquez's Las Meninas, his favorite painting, which depicts a Castilian princess encircled past times her retinue. And together with hence he'll say, "I appreciate together with honey blue-green algae," which helped kicking off Earth's oxygen age. "They are the foundation."

Smil's breadth feels anachronistic. In modern academic science, all the incentives force to narrow specialization, together with Smil believes his eclectic interests have got complicated his career. But his powerfulness to synthe-size across disparate fields also has proved a strength, enabling him to draw how liberate energy courses through every capillary of the world's economy.

Smil's writing career kicked off inward the mid-1970s, exactly every bit an embargo on oil sales past times Middle Eastern nations woke upwards developed nations to exactly how hooked they were on petroleum, for transportation, heating, farming, chemicals, fifty-fifty electricity. The scandalize came exactly after the publication of The Limits to Growth, an influential written report that, using a elementary figurer model, warned of a pending depletion of the planet's resources.

Smil was intrigued together with taught himself programming to simulate the model for himself. "I saw it was utter nonsense," he recalls; the model was far likewise elementary together with easily skewed past times initial assumptions. He constructed a similar model of how carbon dioxide emissions acquit upon climate together with constitute it similarly wanting. He understood the physics of the greenhouse upshot together with the potential for a carbon dioxide buildup to warm Earth, but models seemed likewise dependent on assumptions virtually things similar clouds. Ever since, he's held models of all kinds inward contempt. "I have got likewise much abide by for reality," he says.

Instead, he scoured the scientific literature together with obscure authorities documents for data, seeking the large paradigm of how humanity generates together with deploys energy. What ultimately emerged inward several blandly titled books—including General Energetics: Energy inward the Biosphere together with Civilization (1991), Energy inward World History (1994), together with Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects (2010)—is an epic tale of invention together with transformation, worked through 1 calculation at a time.

That piece of work has guided a generation to intend virtually liberate energy inward the broadest sense, from antiquity to today, says Elizabeth Wilson, manager of the Institute for Energy together with Society at Dartmouth College. "You could convey a paragraph from 1 of his books together with brand a whole career out of it," she says. And yet Smil has avoided mental traps that could come upwards alongside his energy-oriented view, she adds. "[He] does a actually goodness chore of beingness nuanced."

In essence, Smil says, humanity has experienced iii major liberate energy transitions together with is straight off struggling to kicking off a fourth. First was the mastery of fire, which allowed us to liberate liberate energy from the Sun past times burning plants. Second came farming, which converted together with concentrated solar liberate energy into food, freeing people for pursuits other than sustenance. During that 2nd era, which ended exactly a few centuries ago, farm animals together with larger human populations also supplied energy, inward the shape of musculus power. Third came industrialization and, alongside it, the rising of fossil fuels. Coal, oil, together with natural gas each, inward turn, rose to prominence, together with liberate energy production became the domain of machines, every bit such coal-fired powerfulness plants.

Now, Smil says, the world faces its quaternary liberate energy transition: a motion to liberate energy sources that exercise non emit carbon dioxide, together with a render to relying on the sun's electrical current liberate energy flows, instead of those trapped millions of years agone inward deposits of coal, oil, together with natural gas.

The quaternary transition is dissimilar the start three, however. Historically, Smil notes, humans have got typically traded relatively weak, unwieldy liberate energy sources for those that pack a to a greater extent than concentrated punch. The forest he cutting to oestrus his boyhood home, for example, took a lot of the world expanse to grow, together with a unmarried log produced relatively trivial liberate energy when burned. Wood together with other biomass fuels have got relatively depression "power density," Smil says. In contrast, the coal together with oil that heated his afterwards dwellings have got higher powerfulness densities, because they make to a greater extent than liberate energy per gram together with are extracted from relatively compact deposits. But now, the world is seeking to climb dorsum downward the powerfulness density ladder, from highly concentrated fossil fuels to to a greater extent than dispersed renewable sources, such every bit biofuel crops, solar parks, together with air current farms. (Smil notes that nuclear power, which he deems a "successful failure" after its rushed, together with straight off stalled, deployment, is the exception walking downward the density ladder: It is dense inward power, yet oftentimes deemed likewise costly or risky inward its electrical current form.)

One troubling implication of that density reversal, Smil notes, is that inward a hereafter powered past times renewable energy, lodge powerfulness have got to devote 100 or fifty-fifty 1000 times to a greater extent than the world expanse to liberate energy production than today. That shift, he says, could have got enormous negative impacts on agriculture, biodiversity, together with environmental quality.

To regard other difficulties associated alongside that transition, Smil says, hold off no farther than Germany. In 2000, fossil fuels provided 84% of Germany's energy. Then the province embarked on a historic campaign, edifice xc gigawatts of renewable powerfulness capacity, plenty to jibe its existing electricity generation. But because Federal Republic of Federal Republic of Germany sees the Sun solely 10% of the time, the province is every bit hooked every bit ever on fossil fuels: In 2017, they silent supplied 80% of its energy. "True German linguistic communication engineering," Smil says dryly. The land doubled its hypothetical capacity to create electricity but has gotten minimal environmental benefit. Solar tin piece of work great, Smil says, but is best where the Sun shines a corking deal.

Perhaps the most depressing implication of Smil's work, however, is how long making the quaternary transition powerfulness take. Time together with 1 time again he points dorsum to history to greenback that liberate energy transitions are slow, painstaking, together with hard to predict. And existing technologies have got a lot of inertia. The start tractor appeared inward the tardily 1800s, he powerfulness say, but the job of horses inward U.S. farming didn't summit until 1915—and continued into the 1960s....

...Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a whole 'nother story.
If nosotros are going to run out of anything inward the foreseeable hereafter it is likely helium together with because of that, inward the spirit of conservation, I no longer say "That's every bit funny every bit iii helium atoms, HeHeHe"

The fert struggle starred inward a dyad posts including "Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Vaclav Smil Takes on Jeremy Grantham Over Peak Fertilizer" inward which our hero came out swinging from the opening bell:

We Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a posted the whole of Mr. Grantham's Nov. xv Nature piece for fright it would become behind Nature's paywall.
To appointment it hasn't. Also to appointment I haven't come upwards through on my assurance inward Nov. 24ths "Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Jeremy Grantham "On the Road to Zero Growth" every bit His Co-head of Asset Allocation Does the Full Monty". I hope I'll larn to it.

We have got almost every bit many posts on Professor Smil every bit nosotros exercise on Mr. Grantham. This is the start fourth dimension they've been together. I experience really uncomfortable beingness on the contrary side of Mr. G on exactly virtually anything but inward this representative Smil is right.

From The American:

Jeremy Grantham, Starving for Facts
 A column past times legendary property manager Jeremy Grantham is to a greater extent than suitable for the tabloids than for 1 of the world’s oldest together with most prestigious scientific weekly magazines....Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a MORE.

Some of our posts on Mr. Smil:
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Vaclav Smil: Planet of the Cows

Our readers may know Mr. Smil every bit a large bargain inward the Thinking-about-Energy biz. Here he is thinking virtually bovines....

...Previous Smil at Spectrum:
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Vaclav Smil: "Advanced Economies Must Still Make Things"
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Vaclav Smil: "Cellphones every bit a fifth-order elaboration of Maxwell’s theory"
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Calories In, Kilowatts Out: Apparently Sweating Is Important
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a "Happy Birthday to Moore’s Law" (plus political party pooper Vaclav Smil)

And non-Spectrum Smil:
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Vaclav Smil On Energy: "Revolution? More similar a crawl"
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Bill Gates on The Most Astounding Statistic In Vaclav Smil's New Book

Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Bill Gates Summer Reading List (Vaclav Smil has 2 entries)
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Energy--'Vaclav Smil is Correct: Never Forecast'
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Energy: "The homo who’s tutoring Bill Gates … "
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Vaclav Smil: "In liberate energy matters, what goes around, comes around—but mayhap should become away"
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Vaclav Smil: "The Manufacturing of Decline"
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Serious Thinking on Energy: An Interview With Dr. Vaclav Smil
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a A Major Piece: "Why the tech revolution isn’t a template for an liberate energy revolution"
Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Bill Gates Reviews Vaclav Smil's "Prime Movers of Globalization: The History together with Impact of Diesel Engines together with Gas Turbines"

The other genius flat thinker virtually liberate energy died a dyad years agone this April: 

Further Reading post, March 22

Back inward 2012 GMO's Jeremy Grantham was alert virtually the impending civilization-destroying shortage of fertilizers, specifically phosphorus together with potash. His declaration was published inward the magazine Nature, exactly virtually every bit prestigious a platform every bit 1 is probable to mount, salve maybe Proceedings of the Royal Society—A, but that's for physics together with engineering. Anyhoo. Mr. Grantham said the world was going to run out but that is non the agency commodities work. H5N1 commodity's toll volition ration render to the highest job (although inward cases similar corn the allotment business office is distorted past times authorities ethanol policies). Additionally, toll volition incentivize both increased production together with substitution.

To appointment the solely commodity the world has run out of is, oddly enough, a fertilizer inward the shape of guano. We were pretty unopen on whale oil earlier Mr. Rockefeller's volume production of kerosene saved the whales. And together with hence there's menhaden but that's a Energy together with Artificial Intelligence Expert Professor Sir David J.C. MacKay Has Died, Age 48 

When people desire to verbalize alongside me virtually liberate energy I commonly start past times bespeak if they have got read his volume yet.
It's a actually goodness book, regard the links inward the inward a higher identify flush if interested.

And if you lot don't read his book, you lot have got no excuse. He position it on the meshing for gratuitous download.