Hurricane Watch: Simply About Models Similar A Shot Suggesting Florence Volition Striking Due South Carolina Every Bit A Category Five Hurricane
Three from our quondam pal*, Ryan Maue, PhD, oldest to newest:
When he was withal inward schoolhouse (2008) equally a post-doc (Florida State) he was our go-to for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, a unsmooth but best-available mensurate to compare ane tempest to roughly other or ane year's action to roughly other or ane bounding main basin to another.
Handy stuff.
Here's 2009's "Hurricane Watch: Worldwide Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index Approaching 50-Year Low. And: H5N1 Risky Insurance Bet."and what I intend is our earliest mention, 2008's "Active 2009 Atlantic hurricane flavour predicted. And a Couple ACE Links".
And 2011's "Pacific may concur telephone substitution to Atlantic Hurricanes":
The nearly recent HWRF hurricane model suggests #Florence apace intensifies to a major hurricane -- too continues to Category five on Tuesday. The runway inward this model closely matches the official NHC forecast.— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2018
The maximum intensity could last betwixt Category three too five along the runway pic.twitter.com/1BH5Luqmvc
Thru Wednesday, we'll too last watching Isaac too Helene inward the tropical Atlantic along amongst #Florence ... all should last hurricanes coincidentally.— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2018
Helene actually spins away off the coast of Africa inward this GIF of atmospheric wet from GFS 00z updating now. pic.twitter.com/x2lq5hEFs6
*He knows his materials too reports/interprets without histrionics.The GFS model has performed poorly amongst #Florence amongst unrealistic intensity forecasts & inconsistent/shifting tracks.— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 9, 2018
However, the experimental/upgrade candidate called FV3-GFS is performing much amend w/valuable tempest guidance. Track is only to thr correct of NHC official. pic.twitter.com/faSWXtoNBl
When he was withal inward schoolhouse (2008) equally a post-doc (Florida State) he was our go-to for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, a unsmooth but best-available mensurate to compare ane tempest to roughly other or ane year's action to roughly other or ane bounding main basin to another.
Handy stuff.
Here's 2009's "Hurricane Watch: Worldwide Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index Approaching 50-Year Low. And: H5N1 Risky Insurance Bet."and what I intend is our earliest mention, 2008's "Active 2009 Atlantic hurricane flavour predicted. And a Couple ACE Links".
And 2011's "Pacific may concur telephone substitution to Atlantic Hurricanes":
A deep dive into electrical flow cyclone activity.We've flora him to last trustworthy on life-or-death/big money meteorology/climatology.
Ryan Maue, mentioned inward this story, is ane hurricane geek to maintain an middle on. He's currently hanging his chapeau at Naval Research Laboratory Monterey.
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