Deep Dive: Category Two Florence Nears Landfall Inwards Due North Carolina; Catastrophic Flooding Expected

We volition hold upward switching over from Ryan Maue's quick hits on Twitter to Weather Underground's Category 6.
From Cat 6:

September 13, 2018, 10:51 AM EDT
Heavy rains from Category two Hurricane Florence are lashing the coast of North Carolina equally the unsafe tempest heads northwest towards an expected landfall on Friday. Florence may hold upward a Category two hurricane past times the Saffir-Simpson air current scale, but it is a Category 5 heavy pelting in addition to inland flooding threat. Florence volition stall on Fri in addition to displace like shooting fish in a barrel west-southwest along the coast for several days, bringing a devastating rainfall in addition to tempest surge event.

Radar information from the Morehead City, NC radar showed that Florence’s outer spiral bands began dumping heavy rains over the Outer Banks in addition to much of Eastern North Carolina on Th morning. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 – 1.0 inch per hr were common, alongside a few heavy cells generating higher rainfall rates. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Personal Weather Station inwards Emerald Isle, NC picked upward 2.9” of pelting inwards simply xl minutes at 10 am EDT.

At 10:58 am EDT, winds at Beaufort, NC were sustained at 31 mph, gusting to 52 mph.
At eleven am EDT, winds at buoy 41063 twenty miles S of Ocracoke Inlet, NC were sustained at 45 mph, gusting to lx mph.

Intensity forecast for Florence: trivial modify earlier landfall
Florence’s surroundings is nevertheless conducive for intensification, but the tempest is non well-structured to practise so, in addition to the hurricane is apace running out of fourth dimension for whatsoever intensification to occur. The SHIPS model predicts shear volition stay a moderate 10 – xv knots through Saturday, SSTs volition hold upward a warm 29°C (84°F) during this period, in addition to sea oestrus content volition hold upward lower than before, some twenty kilojoules per foursquare centimeter. Given Florence’s lack of a consummate eyewall, pregnant intensification is unlikely, in addition to nosotros tin await the hurricane to gradually weaken equally reason interaction increases in addition to the slower motility of the tempest upwells mutual coldness H2O from the depths. Our transcend iii intensity models predict Florence volition hold upward a borderline Category 1/Category two hurricane alongside 95 - 105 mph winds at landfall.

Figure 3. The 0Z Thursday, September 13, 2018 rail forecasts past times the operational European model for Florence (red line, adjusted past times CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for tempest stimulate since the fourth dimension of the model run), along alongside the rail of the average of the fifty members of the European model ensemble (heavy dark line), in addition to the rail forecasts from the “high probability cluster” (grey lines)—the 4 European model ensemble members that accept performed best alongside Florence so far. These forecasts were real unified on Florence approaching the coast of North Carolina, so moving southwest along the coast in addition to inland over South Carolina. Image credit: CFAN.

Track forecast: a stall some the North Carolina coast, so west-southwest to W motion

The latest 0Z Th runs of our transcend 5 rail forecasting models were similar to their previous 12Z runs, agreeing that Florence would caput towards the North Carolina coast through Th evening, equally the clockwise current some the Bermuda High pushes the tempest northwest. But on Th night, Florence volition position on the brakes in addition to screech to a stop equally the steering currents collapse. Given that the steering currents volition hold upward real weak Fri in addition to beyond, slight changes inwards the residuum betwixt these forces guiding the hurricane volition brand a huge deviation inwards where the hurricane makes landfall. This makes the exact landfall location a fourth dimension hard to predict accurately. Landfall volition hold upward betwixt two am in addition to 10 am EDT Friday, according to the 5 models....MUCH MORE

Earlier today:
Hurricane Florence: Energy