Ag Commodities Ahead Of Today's Big Report: Nervous, Jittery, Out Of Sorts

This is the terminal of this season's WASDE reports to convey whatever existent marketplace moving potential but because the corn harvest has already begun the September reports don't whip the markets similar the May-August numbers do.

The activeness is silent tentative however, akin to equities betwixt the 1980 too 1982 recessions:
Wall Street on the Fed: "Nervous, Jittery, Out of Sorts"

It was always thus:

Oct. 1, 1981

And from FarmLead:

Sept 12 – Grain Markets Anticipate September WASDE 
Grain markets are mixed this morn ahead of the September WASDE written report coming out from the USDA at 12PM EST.

Wheat prices maintain to toll inwards a smaller crop inwards Commonwealth of Australia too the potential negative effects of cooler, wintry weather condition inwards parts of Western Canada on the wheat crop there.

Garrett mentioned inwards the Grain Markets Today column yesterday how soybean prices roughshod every bit grain markets are anticipating a 2018/19 US soybean ending stocks number higher upwards 800 1 M m bushels. That’s nearly double what 2017/18 carryout is supposed to be, but I guess that’s what yous larn when mainland People's Republic of China stops buying American (for now) too yous convey around other tape crop.

Yesterday, nosotros all besides got delayed USDA crop progress report, which showed the US crop continues to travel inwards pretty practiced health.

Specifically, soybeans rated good-to-excellent (G/E) were raised yesteryear two points week-over-week to 68%. That’s besides v points ahead of the 5-year average.

For corn, G/E ratings were besides 68% G/E, upwards 1 squall for week-over-week too two points ahead of the 5-year average. In terms of dent too mature, the US corn crop continues to travel good ahead of its 5-year average.

Also, 5% of the 2019/20 US wintertime wheat crop has been planted.
Other than today’s September WASDE, grain markets are besides trying to figure out what variety of impairment Hurricane Florence mightiness convey on US crops that are nearly create to travel combined.

Record Low Soybean Carryout inwards Brazil
Ahead of the September WASDE, the Brazilian crop agency, CONAB, came out amongst its ain estimates of Brazilian farm production too ending stocks. [1] And they didn’t disappoint.

CONAB raised Brazilian soybean exports yesteryear two 1 M m metric tonnes (MMT) inwards 2017/18 to a tape of 76 MMT. This would seat the country’s ending stocks at the lowest on tape at exactly 434,000 MT. This agency that the province is probable to run out of soybeans earlier their 2018/19 harvest starts coming off inwards Jan 2019. This is mainly because domestic soybean prices inwards Brazil maintain to sit down at tape levels, cheers to their weak currency too strong Chinese demand.

Put simply, this agency that mainland People's Republic of China volition convey to purchase American at around squall for to encounter their needs. Also, Brazil may require to import around soybeans for their processing industry, something nosotros discussed inwards especial at the kickoff of September for our GrainCents soybean readers.

For other crops, CONAB cutting 2017/18 Brazilian corn exports yesteryear 1.5 MMT to 25.5 MMT because of strong domestic demand a smaller harvest. CONAB besides raised the wheat harvest yesteryear 100,000 MT to 5.24 MMT. While that silent won’t encounter full domestic demand inwards Brazil, there’s potentially a large wheat crop coming off adjacent door inwards Argentina.

September WASDE Pre-Report EstimatesBack inwards the August WASDE report, the USDA estimated the 2018/19 Argentine wheat crop at a tape nineteen MMT. Reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has rated 81% of Argentina’s wheat crop inwards normal to first-class condition, but this was downward iv points week-over-week. Perhaps we’ll consider the USDA driblet its Argentine wheat production number every bit a result? Other than Canada, it’s actually the alone other province inwards the basis that doesn’t convey a wheat lineament or production issue.
Coming dorsum to the stars of the September WASDE, Karen Braun from Reuters latterly pointed out around fun ag trivia nigh this month’s written report from the USDA.[2]

First, corn yields, compared to the August WASDE, convey been smaller inwards the half dozen out of the terminal 10 years too inwards all half dozen of those years, that was the right call. Conversely, soybean yields were larger seven out of the terminal 10 September WASDE reports, when compared to August’s numbers. And inwards v of those years, those bigger yields did concord up....MORE

And we'll travel dorsum amongst to a greater extent than later the report