Usda Globe Agricultural Furnish Demand Estimates: Bin-Busting Soybean In Addition To Corn Production (Wasde)

From the USDA's Office of the Chief Economist, August 10:

WHEAT:
The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this calendar month is lower supplies, greater use, together with reduced stocks. Wheat production is lowered iv 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to 1,877 1 one one thousand thousand on a slight reduction inwards wintertime wheat together with durum production equally indicated past times the NASS August Crop Production report. Projected nutrient role is increased past times v 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to 970 1 one one thousand thousand based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. This would endure tape nutrient use, surpassing 2017/18, which was too revised higher. Projected wheat exports are raised l 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to 1,025 1 one one thousand thousand on substantially lower exportable supplies for the European Union together with express additional export capacity of several other major competitors.

Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are reduced l 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to 935 million, downwardly xv pct from final year. The projected flavour -average farm cost is upwards $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint alongside the gain at $4.60 to $5.60. World 2018/19 wheat supplies are reduced this calendar month past times 7.1 1 one one thousand thousand tons, primarily on lower European Union production. Continued drought atmospheric condition inwards several n orthern European count ries, close notably Germany, resulted inwards lower production, downwardly 7.5 1 one one thousand thousand tons to 137.5 million. This would endure the lowest European Union wheat production since 2012/13. Russia’s wheat production is increased 1.0 1 one one thousand thousand tons to 68.0 1 one one thousand thousand on continued favorable atmospheric condition for saltation wheat. Projected global 2018/19 merchandise is lower, mainly on reduced European Union exports, which are downwardly 4.5 1 one one thousand thousand tons to 23.0 million, the lowest inwards 6 years. Russia’s exports are increased 1.0 1 one one thousand thousand tons to 35.0 million; Russian Federation is projected to stay the leading footing wheat exporter for the minute consecutive year. Global imports are lowered for several countries alongside the largest reduction for Algeria. Projected 2018/19 footing consumption is 5.1 1 one one thousand thousand tons lower, primarily on reduced feed role inwards the European Union together with Russia. Global ending stocks are downwardly 1.9 1 one one thousand thousand tons to 259.0 million, downwardly v pct from final year’s record. 

COARSE GRAINS: 
This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed together with residuum use, increased exports, together with larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.6 billion bushels, upwards 356 1 one one thousand thousand from the July projection. The season’s initiative off survey- based corn yield forecast, at a tape 178.4 bushels per acre, is 4.4 bushels higher than final month’s tendency -based projection. Today’s Crop Production written report indicates that Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, North Dakota, together with South Dakota are forecast to accept yields higher upwards a twelvemonth ago. The yield for Iowa is unchanged relative to final year, piece Missouri, Minnesota, together with Kansas are forecast below a twelvemonth ago. Feed together with residuum role is upwards based by together with large on a larger crop together with lower expected prices. Exports are raised reflec ting U.S. export competitiveness together with expectations of reduced contest from Brazil. With render ascension faster than use, ending stocks are raised 132 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to 1.7 billion. The season- average corn cost received past times producers is downwardly twenty cents at the midpoint at a gain of $3.10 to $4.10 per bushel.

OILSEEDS:
U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is projected at 135. 6 1 one one thousand thousand tons, upwards 7. vii 1 one one thousand thousand from final calendar month mainly due to a higher soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 4,586 1 one one thousand thousand bushel s, upwards 276 1 one one thousand thousand on higher yields. Harvested expanse is forecast at 88.9 1 one one thousand thousand acres, unchanged from the July projection. The initiative off survey -based soybean yield forecast of 51.6 bushels per land is 3.1 bushels higher upwards final calendar month together with 2.5 bushels higher upwards final year. As higher production to a greater extent than than offsets lower showtime stocks, soybean supplies for 2018/19 are projected at a tape 5,040 1 one one thousand thousand bushels, v pct higher upwards final month. With larger supplies, rhythm out together with exports are raised xv together with twenty 1 one one thousand thousand bushels respectively. Ending stocks are projected at 785 1 one one thousand thousand bushels, upwards 205 1 one one thousand thousand from final month. The U.S. season- average soybean cost for 2018/19 is forecast at $8.90 per bushel at the midpoint , downwardly 35 cents from final month. The soybean repast cost forecast at $295 to $335 per brusk ton, downwardly $20 at the midpoint. The soybean crude oil cost forecast is unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound. U.S. soybean changes for 2017/18 include higher exports, higher crush, together with lower ending stocks. Exports are raised ii v 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to 2,110 1 one one thousand thousand on potent export sales together with shipments through July. Crush is raised 10 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to a tape 2,040 1 one one thousand thousand on potent soybean repast exports. With increased rhythm out together with exports, soybean ending stocks are reduced 35 1 one one thousand thousand bushels to 430 million...

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Even wheat is getting hit: