World Agricultural Render Ask Estimate, July 12, 2018 (Wasde)

Wheat got the biggest initial popular from the release, soybeans the least, 5-minute charts afterwards the jump.

From the Office of the Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, July 12:

NOTE: Consistent amongst established practices, this written report solely considers those merchandise actions which are inwards house or accept had formal statement of effective dates equally of the fourth dimension of publication. Further, unless a formal terminate appointment is specified, this written report equally good assumes such actions are inwards house throughout the fourth dimension catamenia covered yesteryear these forecasts.

NOTE: This written report adopts U.S. area, yield, as well as production forecasts for wintertime wheat, durum, other fountain wheat, barley, as well as oats released today yesteryear the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For rice, corn, sorghum, soybeans, as well as cotton, expanse estimates reverberate the June 29 NASS Acreage report, as well as methods used to projection production are noted on each table. The maiden of all survey -based 2018 production forecasts for those crops volition hold upwards reported yesteryear NASS on August 10.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 74 1 thou one thousand bushels on increased maiden of all stocks as well as higher production. Forecast 2018/19 U.S. wheat production is raised 54 1 thou one thousand bushels to 1,881 million. The NASS July Crop Production written report provides survey -based production forecasts for all wheat classes for the maiden of all fourth dimension inwards the 2018/19 crop year. The production forecast for durum as well as other fountain wheat are upwards from final year’s depression grade due to improved yields as well as higher fountain wheat area. Winter wheat production is downwards slightly from the June forecast. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 1 thou one thousand bushels this calendar month merely are eleven per centum below final year’s revised stocks. The 2018/19 flavor -average farm cost is lowered $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint to a projected attain of $4.50 to $5.50.

Foreign 2018/19 wheat supplies are decreased 9.3 1 thou one thousand tons primarily on lower production, which is the smallest inwards 3 years. The production declines are led yesteryear a 4.4 -million -ton reduction for the European Union reflecting continued dryness specially inwards the north. Australia, Russia, as well as Ukraine are lowered 2.0 million, 1.5 million, as well as 1.0 1 thou one thousand tons, respectively, as well as equally good reverberate continued dryness. Communist People's Republic of China production is reduced 1.0 1 thou one thousand tons on lower harvested expanse equally reported yesteryear the Ministry of Agriculture. Global 2018/19 exports are lowered 1.9 1 thou one thousand tons on decreased supplies. European Union exports are reduced 1.5 1 thou one thousand tons as well as Commonwealth of Australia as well as Russian Federation are both lowered 1.0 1 thou one thousand tons. These export reductions are partially offset yesteryear a 1.0- 1 thou one thousand -ton increment for Canada as well as a 0.7 -million -ton increment for the United States. Total unusual consumption for 2018/19 is lowered 2.3 1 thou one thousand tons on both lower nutrient as well as feed as well as residuum use. With global supplies declining to a greater extent than than projected use, the world ending stocks are reduced 5.3 1 thou one thousand tons to 260.9 million.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed as well as residuum use, increased exports, as well as lower ending stocks. Corn maiden of all stocks are lowered 75 1 thou one thousand bushels equally higher forecast exports as well as food, seed, as well as industrial (FSI) role to a greater extent than than offset lower feed as well as residuum role inwards 2017/18. Increased 2017/18 exports are based on tape -high shipments during the calendar month of May as well as export inspection information for June. Current outstanding export sales are equally good tape high. FSI role is rais ed equally a projected 25- 1 thou one thousand -bushel increment inwards the amount of corn used for ethanol , based on reported role to appointment , is partially offset yesteryear a spend upwards inwards the amount of corn used for glucose as well as dextrose. Feed as well as residuum role is lower based on indicated dis appearance during the maiden of all 3 quarters of the marketing twelvemonth inwards the June 29 Grain Stocks report....

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