Brian Romanchuk — The Yield Fold Provides Express Economical Information

The relentless flattening of the Treasury yield plication has been a topic of ongoing struggle -- is this a quest that a recession is near? The cardinal to interpreting the flattening is that bond marketplace seat participants are non paid to to anticipate economical outcomes (outside the corner instance of the inflation-linked market), rather to anticipate the path of short-term rates (and the term premium). The flattening yield plication tells us that marketplace seat participants (on average) believe that nosotros are almost the halt of the charge per unit of measurement hike cycle, simply that does non necessarily hateful that a recession is imminent....

Bond Economics
The Yield Curve Provides Limited Economic Information
Brian Romanchuk