Usda Globe Agricultural Render Take Away Report: Wheat Jumps 4%

Wheat 535 upwards 20.50 (+3.98%)
Corn    377 up  9.75  (+2.65%)
From AgWeb:

WASDE: Lower Ending Stocks for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat 

WHEAT
U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are increased slightly this calendar month on higher beginning stocks together with production. Winter wheat is forecast upwards vi 1000000 bushels to 1,198 1000000 amongst pocket-size increases inwards all wintertime wheat classes together with full wheat production is right away at 1,827 million. U.S. exports are raised 25 1000000 bushels to 950 1000000 on tightening Russian exportable supplies. Projected 2018/19 ending stocks are lowered ix 1000000 bushels to 946 million, downwardly 12 pct from final year. The projected season-average farm cost is upwards $0.10 per bushel amongst the midpoint at $5.10, compared to the revised 2017/18 cost of $4.75.

World 2018/19 wheat supplies decreased this calendar month past times 1.2 1000000 tons on production declines inwards Russia, the EU, together with United Mexican States non completely offset past times higher projected production from Bharat together with the United States. Russia’s production is lowered past times 3.5 1000000 tons to 68.5 1000000 on drier-than-normal weather condition this jump inwards wintertime wheat areas together with excessive wetness inwards jump wheat regions lowering plantings. Russia’s wheat production is projected downwardly xix pct from final year’s tape 85.0 1000000 tons. European Union wheat production is reduced 1.0 1000000 tons to 149.4 1000000 on dry out weather condition this jump for wintertime wheat inwards FRG together with Poland. India’s wheat production is raised 2.0 1000000 tons to 97.0 million, based on tape yields together with supported past times reports of higher procurement for the 2018/19 crop compared to final year.

Projected global 2018/19 merchandise is lower, mainly on reduced Russian exportable supplies amongst a smaller crop. Russia’s exports are reduced 1.5 1000000 tons to 35.0 million, simply Russian Federation nevertheless remains the world’s leading wheat exporter. Global imports are lowered, mainly on reduced imports for Bharat every bit the regime latterly raised its wheat import tariff. Projected 2018/19 globe consumption is 3.0 1000000 tons lower, primarily on reduced feed usage for Russian Federation together with the EU. Global ending stocks are raised 1.8 1000000 tons this calendar month to 266.2 1000000 simply are nevertheless below final year’s tape 272.4 million.

COARSE GRAINS
This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced starting fourth dimension stocks, lower feed together with residuum use, greater corn used for ethanol production, together with lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are downwardly largely reflecting a 75-million-bushel increment in projected exports for 2017/18 to 2.300 billion bushels, which if realized would last the highest since 2007/08. Exports during the calendar month of Apr were tape high, besting the prior monthly shipment tape laid upwards inwards Nov 1989. Export inspection information for the calendar month of May implies continued robust global withdraw for U.S. corn, patch one-time crop outstanding sales at this betoken inwards the marketing twelvemonth are tape high. Projected 2018/19 corn used for ethanol is raised fifty 1000000 bushels, offsetting a 50-million-bushel reduction inwards food, seed, together with industrial (FSI) use of sorghum. Corn feed together with residuum run is lowered 25 1000000 bushels amongst increased ethanol by-product production together with higher expected prices. With render falling together with run rising, ending stocks are lowered 105 1000000 bushels to 1.577 billion bushels, which if realized, would last the lowest aeroplane since 2013/14. The season-average farm cost is raised 10 cents at the midpoint amongst a attain of $3.40 to $4.40 per bushel....MUCH MORE

Here's the consummate study (40 page PDF)
As noted back on Apr 30:

...We missed a line a fast 1 on past times non pointing out 1 of the classic nautical chart patterns thus developing inwards wheat:

FinViz

That's a existent alive cup-and-handle amongst the declining grip taking pretty much the entire calendar month of March to play out, a stronger set-up than the like activeness inwards corn:

FinViz

where the grip exclusively had a span weeks to milk shiver out longs....

...And what does all this mean?
The May WASDE Report looks to last the close of import (and potentially marketplace position moving) study of the final few years. If growing aeroplane days commence to grab upwards to average over the adjacent 10 days, corn collapses every bit wheat stays relatively stronger.
Stay tuned.
Wheat upwards 11'2 (2.26%) at 509'6
Corn upwards 3'4 (0.88%) at 402'0