The Rigid Economy: How Brexit Dishonesty Began

The start out quarter increment figures for the Great Britain are terrible, amongst gross domestic product per caput falling slightly, as well as they are consistent amongst an underlying economic scheme which is really weak. As you lot tin come across from the nautical chart below, quarter on previous year’s quarter increment inward gross domestic product per caput was reasonable inward 2014, but has been falling since. The economic scheme has been suffering from Brexit doubtfulness as well as the Brexit induced falls inward existent wages, as well as equally I guessed straight off later the plebiscite the temporary boost to competitiveness has non been plenty to offset this. (More give-and-take here.) [1]

UK gross domestic product per caput quarter on previous year’s quarter growth: source ONS

As Will Hutton says, inward whatsoever other the world at that spot would endure national someone searching. But the reaction of the Chancellor to the latest information is that it "reflects unopen to affect from the especial conditions that nosotros experienced final month, but our economic scheme is rigid as well as nosotros conduct maintain made meaning progress". The Chancellor says the economic scheme is rigid when gross domestic product per head, the best stair out of average prosperity nosotros have, is falling. And the ONS said the conditions had a relatively pocket-size impact.

This form of Orwellian description of the economic scheme (weak is strong) is something that I start out noticed inward the stitch to the 2015 election. The start out 3 years of the Coalition authorities were terrible inward economical terms, as well as the authorities did non effort to pretend otherwise. Everyone was expecting a recovery as well as it didn’t come. But that opened the agency for dishonesty to emerge from 2013, equally the economic scheme began growing again.

UK increment inward 2013 as well as 2014 was actually no to a greater extent than than a provide to normal growth, but it was plenty for both the authorities as well as journalists to speak almost a recovery, fifty-fifty though at that spot are strong reasons for reserving the term recovery for increment that returns us to a pre-recession tendency degree of output. The sentiment that 2013 vindicated austerity was truely Orwellian: no economic science pupil anywhere would acquire away amongst such a statement. The authorities started talking almost a rigid economic scheme during that period.

The rigid economic scheme describe became the Conservative’s cardinal claim inward the 2015 full general election. The economic scheme was pretty good their exclusively rigid dot amid voters, but that did non brand the claim true. In reality nosotros had the worst ‘recovery’ inward centuries: it was non actually a recovery at all because nosotros did non motility whatsoever closer to pre-crisis trends. Yet parts of the media - what I called mediamacro - accepted the rigid economic scheme line, as well as largely ignored an unprecedented autumn inward existent reward as well as the associated refuse inward productivity increment the likes of which nosotros conduct maintain argued that the Conservatives won the election because of mediamacro.

When nosotros come across Brexiters repeat nonsense almost borders betwixt the European Union as well as Switzerland, tell lies almost how the European Union stops merchandise amongst Africa as well as how they volition pass the Brexit dividend they are only continuing where Cameron as well as Osborne left off inward describing the economic scheme equally strong. What Conservative politicians conduct maintain learned is that the BBC inward item does non conduct maintain either the expertise or the volition to telephone phone Conservative politicians out on doublespeak. The to a greater extent than unscrupulous the pol the to a greater extent than they conduct maintain exploited that weakness inward our democracy.

[1] The reply of Brexiters is to conk on maxim its non equally bad equally the government’s pre-referendum brusque term forecast. For unopen to ground its a describe that reminds me of this.