Was Labour’S Determination On Eu Immigration Inwards 2004 A Mistake?

The Labour authorities decided to allow people from the A8 eastern in addition to cardinal European countries that had but joined the European Union to ask maintain complimentary access to the Great Britain from 2004. Most other fellow member countries delayed the indicate at which complimentary displace from these countries was allowed. As a result, nosotros had a large influx of migrants from Poland in addition to other countries from 2004.

The received wisdom seems to hold out that this was a huge mistake. Jack Straw called it a spectacular mistake. Ed Miliband said the authorities had got it wrong. I’m reminded of this yesteryear Ian Jack, who lately inwards the Guardian gave us 8 reasons that nosotros ended upwards alongside Brexit. One was that determination yesteryear Labour. He writes

“immigration had begun to conk equally a political number until, inwards 2004, Tony Blair’s authorities decided to opened upwards the Great Britain labour marketplace to the 8 eastern in addition to cardinal European countries that had joined the EU.”

Here is information on Great Britain immigration in addition to Ipsos-Mori’s running poll on how many people intend immigration is an of import issue. (You tin encounter information on all the issues here.)

It is for certain truthful that immigration has ceased to hold out viewed equally an of import number (blue line) inwards the belatedly 1990s. But immigration’s importance equally an number rose dramatically non from 2004, but good earlier 2004. From 2004 to 2008 it increased a little, but in addition to then declined equally worries near the economic scheme took centre stage.

This does non gibe Jack’s story near a dead number reignited yesteryear immigration from the European Union inwards 2004, unless voters were anticipating the decision. It seems to a greater extent than belike that voters were responding the large increment inwards non-EU immigration that happened subsequently Labour came to power, equally the nautical chart below shows.

But fifty-fifty that seems improbable: did it actually ask maintain people a few years to notice. Here I present that at that spot is a variable whose timing correlates alongside the increasing importance of immigration equally an number alongside exclusively a slight lead: intelligence stories near immigration. I rate lots of bear witness that suggests that the human relationship is causal: press coverage near immigration, which inwards most papers is invariably negative, causes people to tell immigration is an of import issue.

Once you lot allow the press to ask maintain an of import causal purpose on attitudes, in addition to equally I clit here at that spot is expert bear witness that they do, the story that the 2004 determination was a large fault tin hold out seen inwards a dissimilar light. What nosotros tin tell is that high immigration from the belatedly 90s allowed the press to write near immigrants flooding the country, in addition to the 2004 determination allowed them to tell the same affair near European Union immigrants subsequently 2004. But in addition to then the 2004 determination is exclusively a fault because newspapers weaponised it.

To his credit Jack does listing amidst his 8 reasons for Brexit the Great Britain press, in addition to suggests equally I ask maintain done that the departure betwixt the vote inwards England in addition to Scotland owes something to the press beingness “far to a greater extent than rabid” inwards England. Our rabid correct fly press were e'er going to weaponize European Union immigration whenever it happened. Labour could exclusively ask maintain delayed A8 immigration until 2011. That would yet ask maintain given newspapers enough of fourth dimension to write negative stories near European Union immigrants earlier the plebiscite inwards 2016, equally they of class did inwards spades. As immigration from the European Union betwixt 2004 in addition to 2011 is likely to ask maintain provided economical benefits for natives, it is non obvious that the 2004 determination was a fault at all.