Unintended Consequences

Unintended consequences of well-intentioned policies, unexpected behavioral changes inwards reply to ignored incentives, odd render (or demand) responses to demand (or supply) interventions, together with clever novel pathways for changes to come about are the sorts of mechanisms that brand economic science fun, together with I promise useful to cause-and-effect agreement of human affairs.

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 illustration inwards betoken is an Atlantic article from 2012 that a friend pointed me to final week, yesteryear Richard Sander together with Stuart Taylor Jr.

... UCLA, an elite schoolhouse that used large racial preferences until the Proposition 209 ban [on overt racial preferences] took effect inwards 1998... Many predicted that over fourth dimension blacks together with Hispanics would virtually disappear from the UCLA campus.

And at that topographic point was indeed a post-209 drib inwards minority enrollment equally preferences were phased out. Although it was smaller together with to a greater extent than short-lived than anticipated, it was all the same quite substantial: a 50 per centum drib inwards dark freshman enrollment together with a 25 per centum drib for Hispanics...

[However,]

...The full issue of dark together with Hispanic students receiving bachelor's degrees were the same for the 5 classes afterwards Prop 209 equally for the 5 classes before.

How was this possible? 

Indeed, I also would possess got guessed, if I didn't recollect difficult almost it, that eliminating racial preferences would possess got to possess got reduced the issue of minorities who graduated, together with that the affirmative activity declaration would possess got gone on to other pros together with cons. But that's wrong.

First, the ban on preferences produced better-matched students at UCLA, students who were to a greater extent than probable to graduate. The dark four-year graduation charge per unit of measurement at UCLA doubled from the early on 1990s to the years afterwards Prop 209.

Yes. Half the admits only double the graduation charge per unit of measurement leaves constant the issue of graduates.

Second, rigid dark together with Hispanic students accepted UCLA offers of admission at much higher rates afterwards the preferences ban went into effect; their choices seem to propose that they were eager to attend a schoolhouse where the stigma of a preference could non survive attached to them. This mitigated the drib inwards enrollment.

Third, many minority students who would possess got been admitted to UCLA amongst weak qualifications earlier Prop 209 were admitted to less elite schools instead; those who proved their academic mettle were able to transfer upwards to UCLA together with graduate there.

Thus, Prop 209 changed the minority sense at UCLA from i of frequent failure to much to a greater extent than consistent success. The schoolhouse granted equally many bachelor degrees to minority students equally it did earlier Prop 209 field admitting many fewer together with hence dramatically reducing failure together with drop-out rates. 

To survive absolutely clear, this postal service is almost pathways. I arrive at non want to wade into a perilous pro or anti affirmative activity debate, a basically radioactive topic for white manlike someone economists. (Though I am pleased to written report a quick Google search that suggests both Sanders together with Taylor all the same employed, something that powerfulness non come about if their mass were published today.)

And a proponent of affirmative activity could nonetheless brand many arguments consistent amongst this work.  Perhaps dropping out of UCLA is practiced for people. Perhaps to a greater extent than minorities on campus is useful for white students' social perceptions, fifty-fifty if it harms its intended beneficiaries. Perhaps things were going on at other universities that drove minority upperclasspeople UCLA's way. UCLA is purpose of the California dry soil system, which encourages transfers at twelvemonth two, which is non the illustration everywhere. I also don't know how the numbers are belongings upwards postal service 2012. Finally, racial preferences seem to possess got advantaged whites yesteryear keeping asians out, which is an interesting scandal yesteryear the quiet surrounding it.

Today's postal service is non almost this larger argument.

I'm willing to bet Brad DeLong all the same blogs I'm racist for fifty-fifty mentioning the topic, only that volition survive an interesting attempt of today's political climate.