Brexit Too Neoliberalism

In a recent post I talked almost the “neoliberal fantasists who voted Leave”. Here is Ryan Bourne from the influential Institute of Economic Affairs. He notes that “the mood music from the post-referendum Conservative political party — alongside erstwhile Remain backers inwards No 10 together with the Home Office overcompensating alongside a caricatured thought of what voters wishing — is non a goodness sign for the short-term”. But he nonetheless believes that Brexit tin hold out transformed into some form of neoliberal moisture dream, alongside a bonfire of regulations together with a unilateral abolition of Britain tariffs on trade.

The economic science of this was ever fantasy, every bit John Van Reenen together with colleagues painstakingly demonstrate here, but it likewise seems politically naive. After all the Leave drive was a success largely because it promised to command immigration every bit a final result of leaving the EU, controls which are distinctly anti-neoliberal. Controlling immigration is non a caricature of what the bulk of Leave voters wanted, but instead what most were voting for. It does appear naive to believe that a regime after Brexit would attempt together with quietly forget almost this, especially when led past times individual who had spent the previous half dozen years trying together with failing to command immigration. It likewise seems naive to imagine that this plough against neoliberalism would non buy the farm beyond immigration.

And yet, the ‘southern strategy’ was highly successful for the Republican political party inwards the US. This combined an economical policy that favoured finance together with corporates, increased inequality together with gratuitous markets alongside an identity politics that appealed to race, religion together with cultural identity. (I could mayhap add together geographical identity hither every bit well: reckon this article past times David Wong.) Perhaps the Britain political party of the correct could follow a similar course, using immigration every bit a substitute (and for some a proxy) for race, whilst pursuing an otherwise neoliberal agenda?

Is this what the Conservative political party tried to do nether Cameron together with Osborne? Actually I remember that is the incorrect question, for reasons I volition come upward to shortly. In damage of what the Coalition regime truly did, Jonathan Portes summarises it thus:

“The hope to cutting internet migration to the “tens of thousands” was mostly regarded past times immigration policy experts every bit unachievable, or achievable alone at an economical toll no sensible regime was willing to pay. In practice, the latter course of instruction was never tested: resistance from within regime from the Department of Business, supported to a greater or lesser extent past times the Treasury, meant that fifty-fifty non-EU migration was alone reduced real substantially for non-HE students; for most other routes it has stabilised. Non-EU internet migration is currently almost 150,000 a year, slightly higher than European Union internet migration

This does non hateful the policy changes had no impact: the increment inwards the regulatory burden on work organisation together with the teaching sector has been substantial, together with has sure resulted inwards some reduction inwards skilled together with educatee migration. The most damaging unmarried conclusion was likely the closing of the Post-Study Work Route. However, overall, whatever economical harm was considerably mitigated.”

Of course of instruction that resistance from the Department of Business came from a Liberal Democrat, Vince Cable, together with non a Conservative. Which leaves opened upward the possibility that the economical harm from attempts to hitting the immigration target mightiness bring been greater if only the Conservatives had been inwards power. So it is non clear that the Conservative focus on immigration was only so they could win elections alongside null toll to their to a greater extent than neoliberal objectives. It nonetheless remains the illustration that, only every bit Trump exposed the flaw inwards the Republican’s southern strategy, so Brexit was the critical flaw inwards Cameron’s emphasis on the work of immigration together with his failure to run across his ain targets.

I said it was the incorrect question, because I remember inwards this illustration it was non a political political party that was calling the shots but a department of the impress media: the correct fly tabloids. As Andy Beckett writes inwards this comprehensive history of this purpose of the Britain media:

“[Brexit] was an number for which the tabloids had campaigned doggedly for decades, but never to a greater extent than intensely – or alongside less factual scrupulousness – than this saltation together with summer, when the front end pages of the Sun, Mail together with Express bellowed for Brexit, talking upward Britain’s prospects afterwards, inwards deafening unison, solar daytime after day. Two days earlier the referendum, the Dominicus gave over its get-go 10 pages to pro-Brexit coverage.”

And the regulation agency the tabloids used to obtain this final result was the “endless xenophobic nudges of its immigration coverage.” Of course of instruction these newspapers volition enjoin they were only expressing their readers fears, but when they are reduced to making upward stories to encourage this fright whatever claim to innocence becomes real hollow. Fueling anti-immigration feeling was their version of a southern strategy, together with Brexit saw its culmination.

Having achieved this objective, volition the tabloids start ignoring the immigration issue, enabling the greater immigration together with null tariffs that Mr. Bourne desires? Or volition the influence of these tabloids, mayhap straightaway greater than it has ever been, start to fade away? To the extent that these appear featherbrained questions reveals the political naivety of the neoliberal Leavers. It is highly unlikely that Theresa May volition buy the farm prissy almost damaging work organisation through immigration controls to enable her to run across her immigration target. The best hope of those who do non wishing to buy the farm downwards this path is that, every bit Jonathan Portes expects, the Brexit vote itself starts to trim the immigration numbers.

Brexit volition likewise position other pressures on May which are probable to motility her away from neoliberal policies, every bit the assurances given to Nissan indicate. As Bourne writes inwards a recent blog: “if this is a commitment to permanent or semi-permanent back upward to almost ‘make upward for’ changed merchandise arrangements together with so it is hugely misguided.” Misguided it may be, but that is the direction the politics volition force a Prime Minister determined to hold out seen every bit making a success of Brexit. Just every bit Republican’s bring agonised over how to bargain alongside Donald Trump, so it volition buy the farm clear to Britain neoliberals the harm to their stimulate that Brexit volition generate.