Albany International: A Function Plan For A Fund Manager
This is going to live a stock annotation alongside a departure - because it is non a stock note. But it is most a stock/business - Albany International is a companionship that makes machine cloth based inwards upstate New York. The interesting business office of Albany though is that it has a high-growth but unprofitable aerospace business.
The annotation yet was an early on move programme to create upward one's hear whether nosotros wanted either
(a) no position,
(b) a pocket-size position,
(c) a large position.
The master annotation was a piddling unsmooth - every bit it was an internal move program. And it involved a New York based investor who helped me alongside the leg-work inwards upstate New York. (As I do non convey their permission I convey non revealed either their names or the results of their work).
So I convey tidied this annotation upward a piddling as well as removed names since the original. But the annotation is accurate every bit to what nosotros did as well as how nosotros approached it.
If you lot wonder what a practiced fund director actually does this is a decent illustration. (I wishing our move were ever of this standard. It is a hard criterion to hold but I volition try.)
For the tape nosotros settled on a pocket-size position. We were non solely thrilled alongside the consequence of our enquiry - but I am non going to tell you lot how nosotros got to that conclusion. Rather I volition exit the leg-work for you.
The move programme was stated inwards a alphabetic lineament to my staff fellow member (Luke) as well as my generalist New York friend.
Below is an edited version of that letter.
---
Fan Blades, machine have on as well as Albany International
This is a projection that I desire to do every bit a articulation projection alongside James (name changed). So let’s start alongside an introduction –
James is a friend of mine from New York. He used to live senior at XXX (which is a way-more-than-average sophisticated fund manager). He likely has some pretty practiced New York connections as well as staff to aid us do the checking there.
Luke is fairly novel to funds administration but has a PhD inwards physics – as well as has lots of sense every bit a high-end physicist/engineer – generally inwards sparse films. Luke is to a greater extent than than capable of checking whatever of the scientific discipline that I am asserting. And I would similar to live checked.
The target companionship is Albany International -
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=521
The marketplace cap is merely nether $1.3 billion as well as they are based inwards upstate New York.
I was hoping James could do whatever New York vogue leg-work (scuttlebutt inwards upstate New York as well as finding out what nosotros tin most the Rochester flora described below) as well as Luke tin banking concern check nosotros are non bullshitting ourselves on the science.
The terminate margin of the aerospace concern (described below) is also completely unknown. (I volition jurist – but it is a guess…)
Background
Albany is a high-tech weaving companionship whose brain concern (where it is the the world leader) is machine cloth. Machine cloth is the textile that goes around newspaper plants as well as the newspaper is rolled betwixt rollers as well as machine cloth.
Machine cloth naturally a pretty practiced concern because amend machine cloth makes amend paper, plants larn optimized making switching hard. Moreover machine cloth is a consumable as well as is non hugely vulnerable to the newspaper uppercase equipment cycle. There are a fair few competitors – most notably the newspaper making OEMs – but machine cloth seems to convey sustainably high margins.
However the newspaper manufacture is inwards spend upward – especially the higher grades of newspaper which is where Albany has some position. So machine cloth is a practiced concern inwards decline.
The companionship explicitly says that their chore is run this concern at every bit tiresome a spend upward every bit possible.
Albany International had lots of other businesses inwards the past times – but they sold them all to focus on machine cloth as well as aerospace. They convey purchased some aerospace businesses.
The master aerospace concern comes from weaving carbon fibers. In the carbon fiber concern at that topographic point are a few dominant fiber providers (Toray inwards Japan, Hexcel inwards Stamford for aerospace carbon fiber) as well as at that topographic point are a few resin companies (eg Hercules).
The carbon fiber fabrics are generally made past times formerly high-tech textile makers. Indeed almost all carbon fiber weaving companies started at the technical terminate of textile manufacture.
This is also the rootage of Albany's aerospace business. The seat Albany convey inwards aerospace looks potentially practiced – but at that topographic point is almost no revenue at ane time (about $100m at a loss).
They are guiding towards $450 ane 1000 m inwards revenue inwards a few years.
If this revenue is at fatty margin (likely but unknown) as well as the machine cloth concern does non become away (also probable but unknown) so this should live a practiced stock.
Machine Cloth
First – I convey verified externally absolutely null inwards this machine have on business. (All my move has been on verification of the aerospace business). If anyone knows whatever way of verifying this stuff – for instance has contacts inwards the newspaper manufacture – I would love verification. ("Trust but verify” is a practiced slogan.)
Here is Albany's spider web page detailing the business…
http://www.albint.com/business/mc/en-us/pmc/Pages/default.aspx
Company presentations give EBITDA margins inwards the high twenty percentage range.
The presentations yet focus on EBITDA. Alas anyone who knows most technical looms volition know that it is a relentlessly uppercase intensive concern (witness all the wining that Warren Buffett did inwards early on Berkshire letters most the mess that the textile companionship was).
So lets push clitoris the EBIT numbers rather than EBITDA –
But $140m inwards income on $655m of sales is non unattractive… its silent greater than a 20% margin business. Alas this is earlier a disconcerting large amount of "corporate expenses as well as other". If all the corporate expenses are loaded on the machine cloth concern (likely unfair) the margin winds upward (pre-tax) at something similar 10 percent. This is consistent alongside the GAAP accounts.
That said - I know piddling most the machine have on concern as well as verification would live nice.
The Aerospace business
The appeal of the stock yet is the aerospace concern as well as non the declining machine cloth business. The short-explanation tin live flora here…
Its sort of bold to assert this is a engineering whose fourth dimension has come…
The companionship has been making fairly bold claims though… this is also from a slide inwards (what was) the lastly presentation…
Note an “objective” of $450 ane 1000 m inwards revenue past times 2020. (Is an “objective” lesser than an “expectation”?) And is the “assuming no novel business” an indication that the revenue mightiness live higher?
That said they have existing contracts including most importantly making fan blades for the LEAP engine.
LEAP is the successor engine to GE/SAFRAN’s engine for the narrow-body marketplace (ie 737 as well as A320s). Note that GE electrical flow engines convey a 65 percentage portion inwards that marketplace but a lower portion inwards the forwards monastic tell majority – so it is non every bit practiced every bit it looks. (The old ane was the biggest selling as well as most profitable jet engine of all time…)
Here is the projection of LEAP revenue.
And at that topographic point are a bunch of other programs that they recall larn them to 450 ane 1000 m run-rate past times 2020.
They exhibit pictures of their production facilities on the presentation – but most of these – every bit nosotros shall encounter below – are JVs alongside SAFRAN. Here is the picture…
If these are existent they must live JVs because at that topographic point is (listed here) 1.2 ane 1000 m foursquare feet of flora (and to a greater extent than nether production) as well as at that topographic point are only 1250 employees. This is a 1000 foursquare pes of flora per employee – which is – every bit you lot mightiness discovery – spaced out. So what these plants are as well as how much of them is owned past times Albany International needs to live determined.
The margin question
I convey no sentiment of the margin for all this aerospace product. That volition live the determining inquiry - because if this is fatty margin concern you lot desire to ain the stock. All I convey done is some verification of revenue flow – especially re fan-blades.
We volition demand to endeavour as well as larn a handgrip on what the margin volition be. (More on this below.) However the way of thinking this is through the history of fan blades - as well as some give-and-take on how easy/difficult this projection turns out to be.
Fan blades – a potted history
Modern commercial jets are “turbofans”. H5N1 turbine drives a fan at the front end of the engine – as well as that fan creates upward to ninety percentage of the thrust. It also has to live able to withstand aeroplane strike (at horrendous forces) as well as has to live enclosed past times a instance which is able to withstand an accident where a fan breaks off. (This is the so-called fan-blade-off evidence which is the hardest of the FAA mandated security tests…)
The instance as well as the fan are almost ever a unit of measurement – as well as the tolerance betwixt them is extremely fine. The inner surface of the instance is commonly some abradable stuff every bit the tolerances are so fine some abrasion is possible.
When Rolls Royce developed what was the commencement decent engine capable of carrying a wide-bodied airplane (the RB211) they had an agenda of making an engine inwards which the fan could spin at a dissimilar charge per unit of measurement to the meat of the engine (which is done through multiple spindles) as well as having a carbon composite fan (made of a carbon fiber production called Hyfil).
They succeeded on the commencement task - Rolls Royce developed an engine inwards which parts spin at dissimilar rates.
But they failed comprehensively at a reasonable composite fan. The fan shattered when chickens were shot into it at high speed. (Obviously bird-strike is an area.)
So eventually they injure upward alongside a titanium sandwich fan blade. You tin encounter these blades as well as something of the manufacture inwards this video.
They fundamental department goes from 12.20 to 17.40. (The residue of the documentary is sort of fun too…)
--
GE inwards JV alongside SAFRAN has managed to brand a composite blade as well as they purpose it on their wide-bodied engines…
This is a video released past times GE Aviation (apparently to the surprise of the Hexcel who told us that they had been told past times GE that much of this is secret). Watch the whole affair – because you lot volition larn some sentiment of the tech.
Note that this is a laminate production procedure – the starting production is a gyre of pre-impregnated carbon fiber. The supplier of that is Hexcel (based inwards Stamford) as well as the resin is supplied past times Hercules. The Hexcel IR told us that the room is also refrigerated because the pre-preg goes off if warm.
Rolls Royce convey ever maintained that the Rolls Royce titanium blades are merely every bit practiced every bit the GE blades. (GE of course of written report differs as well as you lot tin encounter their pitch hither - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy4A-z2WKhw.)
In fairness the claim to the most efficient long-haul engine has fluctuated betwixt GE as well as Rolls alongside most the fourth dimension Rolls having the electrical flow leader. This suggests that Rolls’ claim is okay.
One affair is indisputable. H5N1 composite fan requires gets paired alongside a composite fan-blade case. And that is lighter than a metallic one. This is the brain expanse inwards which GE engines are lighter than Rolls Royce ones. (There is an offsetting Rolls Royce wages explained inwards this weblog post… https://leehamnews.com/2014/07/10/is-the-a330neo-engine-rolls-royces-first-carbon-fan-model/)
For the most business office - especially given the higher upward weblog post - I am generally comfortable alongside Rolls Royce's claim that the titanium sandwich fan blade is competitive alongside carbon fiber blades.
Or I was comfortable earlier this: a video of a next-generation Rolls Royce engine (scheduled for a 2025 release…)
This is a celluloid of a 747 flight alongside 3 criterion engines as well as a "donor engine". The donor engine is real large as well as the fan blade is blue. It is bluish because the blade is made of plastics.
When Luke as well as I went on a manufacturing flora tour of Rolls Royce nosotros asked them how they reconciled their previous statements that their titanium blades are every bit practiced every bit composite blades alongside the obvious enquiry they were doing on composite blades.
Their answer: titanium blades are thinner than composite blades. This agency that for similar aerodynamics they tin live made less deep than composite blades – as well as this offsets the weight wages of composite blades. This I convey seen alongside my ain eyes (sorry I do non convey pictures) but the Rolls Royce blades are indeed less deep than the composite blades. This tin sort of live seen inwards the higher upward videos every bit well.
Then the clincher. The novel engineering volition allow composite fan blades to live made every bit sparse every bit titanium ones – as well as hence (at to the lowest degree on engines larger than a corporate jet) the titanium ones volition live obsolete.
It was this give-and-take that led us to Albany International.
Albany as well as LEAP engines
We know for certain that this is beingness used every bit the blade on the LEAP engine. Here is a video of the Rochester flora (see painting above)…
Note that it is a Safran flora but the signage shows it to live a JV alongside Albany. Moreover the video clearly shows carbon fiber beingness woven inwards an apparently complicated pattern. (Hexcel has confirmed to us that they furnish the fibers to this plant.)
Moreover nosotros convey a press release from SAFRAN.
Moreover they convey a similar JV flora inwards France.
And hither is the French Prime Minister visiting a JV flora inwards France. There is a similar video a yr agone alongside the French President.
This is apparently pretty of import to Safran. Again it is quite clearly a articulation venture alongside plenty of staff inwards Albany uniforms.
Questions nosotros should recall most answering
C-FAN (the master composite fan blade business) is a JV betwixt SAFRAN as well as GE. And only GE planes wing them. Is this a JV betwixt Albany as well as SAFRAN because the JV wants to sell to parties other than GE (ie Rolls, Pratt & Whitney)?
We know a piddling most the Rolls fan from this press release – as well as it does non expression similar a braided/woven fan blade – which is somewhat contradictory of the declaration above. In it Rolls says:
This looks a lot similar the C-Fan video aboce – rather than the Albany-SAFRAN JV. Moreover the partner is GKN – the auto companionship that happens to brand some carbon fiber components for the A350 – as well as that is non this sort of weaving. Those products are traditional carbon fiber laminates.
If nosotros tin clear all this how do nosotros value it?
I convey deleted this section. It was a piddling unsmooth - as well as you lot love reader tin do that yourself.
---
Now all this was a "work program" as well as nosotros did plenty of work. And at that topographic point are several things inwards this I know at ane time to live wrong. For instance the geared turbofan has a metallic fan every bit per this Alcoa video:
I suspect other suggestions inwards the move programme are wrong. I am happy to live corrected. Email, phone. Please live inwards contact.
John Hempton
The annotation yet was an early on move programme to create upward one's hear whether nosotros wanted either
(a) no position,
(b) a pocket-size position,
(c) a large position.
The master annotation was a piddling unsmooth - every bit it was an internal move program. And it involved a New York based investor who helped me alongside the leg-work inwards upstate New York. (As I do non convey their permission I convey non revealed either their names or the results of their work).
So I convey tidied this annotation upward a piddling as well as removed names since the original. But the annotation is accurate every bit to what nosotros did as well as how nosotros approached it.
If you lot wonder what a practiced fund director actually does this is a decent illustration. (I wishing our move were ever of this standard. It is a hard criterion to hold but I volition try.)
For the tape nosotros settled on a pocket-size position. We were non solely thrilled alongside the consequence of our enquiry - but I am non going to tell you lot how nosotros got to that conclusion. Rather I volition exit the leg-work for you.
The move programme was stated inwards a alphabetic lineament to my staff fellow member (Luke) as well as my generalist New York friend.
Below is an edited version of that letter.
---
Fan Blades, machine have on as well as Albany International
This is a projection that I desire to do every bit a articulation projection alongside James (name changed). So let’s start alongside an introduction –
James is a friend of mine from New York. He used to live senior at XXX (which is a way-more-than-average sophisticated fund manager). He likely has some pretty practiced New York connections as well as staff to aid us do the checking there.
Luke is fairly novel to funds administration but has a PhD inwards physics – as well as has lots of sense every bit a high-end physicist/engineer – generally inwards sparse films. Luke is to a greater extent than than capable of checking whatever of the scientific discipline that I am asserting. And I would similar to live checked.
The target companionship is Albany International -
https://www.google.com/finance?cid=521
The marketplace cap is merely nether $1.3 billion as well as they are based inwards upstate New York.
I was hoping James could do whatever New York vogue leg-work (scuttlebutt inwards upstate New York as well as finding out what nosotros tin most the Rochester flora described below) as well as Luke tin banking concern check nosotros are non bullshitting ourselves on the science.
The terminate margin of the aerospace concern (described below) is also completely unknown. (I volition jurist – but it is a guess…)
Background
Albany is a high-tech weaving companionship whose brain concern (where it is the the world leader) is machine cloth. Machine cloth is the textile that goes around newspaper plants as well as the newspaper is rolled betwixt rollers as well as machine cloth.
Machine cloth naturally a pretty practiced concern because amend machine cloth makes amend paper, plants larn optimized making switching hard. Moreover machine cloth is a consumable as well as is non hugely vulnerable to the newspaper uppercase equipment cycle. There are a fair few competitors – most notably the newspaper making OEMs – but machine cloth seems to convey sustainably high margins.
However the newspaper manufacture is inwards spend upward – especially the higher grades of newspaper which is where Albany has some position. So machine cloth is a practiced concern inwards decline.
The companionship explicitly says that their chore is run this concern at every bit tiresome a spend upward every bit possible.
Albany International had lots of other businesses inwards the past times – but they sold them all to focus on machine cloth as well as aerospace. They convey purchased some aerospace businesses.
The master aerospace concern comes from weaving carbon fibers. In the carbon fiber concern at that topographic point are a few dominant fiber providers (Toray inwards Japan, Hexcel inwards Stamford for aerospace carbon fiber) as well as at that topographic point are a few resin companies (eg Hercules).
The carbon fiber fabrics are generally made past times formerly high-tech textile makers. Indeed almost all carbon fiber weaving companies started at the technical terminate of textile manufacture.
This is also the rootage of Albany's aerospace business. The seat Albany convey inwards aerospace looks potentially practiced – but at that topographic point is almost no revenue at ane time (about $100m at a loss).
They are guiding towards $450 ane 1000 m inwards revenue inwards a few years.
If this revenue is at fatty margin (likely but unknown) as well as the machine cloth concern does non become away (also probable but unknown) so this should live a practiced stock.
Machine Cloth
First – I convey verified externally absolutely null inwards this machine have on business. (All my move has been on verification of the aerospace business). If anyone knows whatever way of verifying this stuff – for instance has contacts inwards the newspaper manufacture – I would love verification. ("Trust but verify” is a practiced slogan.)
Here is Albany's spider web page detailing the business…
http://www.albint.com/business/mc/en-us/pmc/Pages/default.aspx
Company presentations give EBITDA margins inwards the high twenty percentage range.
The presentations yet focus on EBITDA. Alas anyone who knows most technical looms volition know that it is a relentlessly uppercase intensive concern (witness all the wining that Warren Buffett did inwards early on Berkshire letters most the mess that the textile companionship was).
So lets push clitoris the EBIT numbers rather than EBITDA –
But $140m inwards income on $655m of sales is non unattractive… its silent greater than a 20% margin business. Alas this is earlier a disconcerting large amount of "corporate expenses as well as other". If all the corporate expenses are loaded on the machine cloth concern (likely unfair) the margin winds upward (pre-tax) at something similar 10 percent. This is consistent alongside the GAAP accounts.
That said - I know piddling most the machine have on concern as well as verification would live nice.
The Aerospace business
The appeal of the stock yet is the aerospace concern as well as non the declining machine cloth business. The short-explanation tin live flora here…
LAMINATED COMPOSITES, USED IN EVERYTHING FROM THE skins of fighter planes to golf-club shafts, convey ane large flaw: They tend to come upward apart when the resin belongings their layers together cracks nether stress. Borrowing from the ancient fine art of braiding, Albany International Corp. inwards Albany, N.Y., has come upward up alongside a way to brand laminated composites stronger. It's mutual to braid layers of a composite separately, but Albany International goes farther past times braiding each layer to adjoining ones. Anchored together, they can't slide past times ane some other similar cards inwards a deck--the leading drive of nifty inwards laminate resins.
The company's Multilayer Interlock Braid engineering is starting to discovery applications, according to the inventor, David S. Brookstein, who remains a consultant to Albany International after becoming dean of the School of Textiles & Materials Technology at Philadelphia College of Textiles & Science. The U.S. Army has used some of the paradigm stuff to create inflatable arches for a portable hangar. And Brookstein says the companionship hopes to move alongside a large medical-device companionship to suit the procedure to brand a hip implant whose stiffness could live customized.The only work alongside this explanation is that it is from a 1995 even on Bloomberg. We are 21 years later…
Its sort of bold to assert this is a engineering whose fourth dimension has come…
The companionship has been making fairly bold claims though… this is also from a slide inwards (what was) the lastly presentation…
Note an “objective” of $450 ane 1000 m inwards revenue past times 2020. (Is an “objective” lesser than an “expectation”?) And is the “assuming no novel business” an indication that the revenue mightiness live higher?
That said they have existing contracts including most importantly making fan blades for the LEAP engine.
LEAP is the successor engine to GE/SAFRAN’s engine for the narrow-body marketplace (ie 737 as well as A320s). Note that GE electrical flow engines convey a 65 percentage portion inwards that marketplace but a lower portion inwards the forwards monastic tell majority – so it is non every bit practiced every bit it looks. (The old ane was the biggest selling as well as most profitable jet engine of all time…)
Here is the projection of LEAP revenue.
And at that topographic point are a bunch of other programs that they recall larn them to 450 ane 1000 m run-rate past times 2020.
They exhibit pictures of their production facilities on the presentation – but most of these – every bit nosotros shall encounter below – are JVs alongside SAFRAN. Here is the picture…
If these are existent they must live JVs because at that topographic point is (listed here) 1.2 ane 1000 m foursquare feet of flora (and to a greater extent than nether production) as well as at that topographic point are only 1250 employees. This is a 1000 foursquare pes of flora per employee – which is – every bit you lot mightiness discovery – spaced out. So what these plants are as well as how much of them is owned past times Albany International needs to live determined.
The margin question
I convey no sentiment of the margin for all this aerospace product. That volition live the determining inquiry - because if this is fatty margin concern you lot desire to ain the stock. All I convey done is some verification of revenue flow – especially re fan-blades.
We volition demand to endeavour as well as larn a handgrip on what the margin volition be. (More on this below.) However the way of thinking this is through the history of fan blades - as well as some give-and-take on how easy/difficult this projection turns out to be.
Fan blades – a potted history
Modern commercial jets are “turbofans”. H5N1 turbine drives a fan at the front end of the engine – as well as that fan creates upward to ninety percentage of the thrust. It also has to live able to withstand aeroplane strike (at horrendous forces) as well as has to live enclosed past times a instance which is able to withstand an accident where a fan breaks off. (This is the so-called fan-blade-off evidence which is the hardest of the FAA mandated security tests…)
The instance as well as the fan are almost ever a unit of measurement – as well as the tolerance betwixt them is extremely fine. The inner surface of the instance is commonly some abradable stuff every bit the tolerances are so fine some abrasion is possible.
When Rolls Royce developed what was the commencement decent engine capable of carrying a wide-bodied airplane (the RB211) they had an agenda of making an engine inwards which the fan could spin at a dissimilar charge per unit of measurement to the meat of the engine (which is done through multiple spindles) as well as having a carbon composite fan (made of a carbon fiber production called Hyfil).
They succeeded on the commencement task - Rolls Royce developed an engine inwards which parts spin at dissimilar rates.
But they failed comprehensively at a reasonable composite fan. The fan shattered when chickens were shot into it at high speed. (Obviously bird-strike is an area.)
So eventually they injure upward alongside a titanium sandwich fan blade. You tin encounter these blades as well as something of the manufacture inwards this video.
They fundamental department goes from 12.20 to 17.40. (The residue of the documentary is sort of fun too…)
--
GE inwards JV alongside SAFRAN has managed to brand a composite blade as well as they purpose it on their wide-bodied engines…
This is a video released past times GE Aviation (apparently to the surprise of the Hexcel who told us that they had been told past times GE that much of this is secret). Watch the whole affair – because you lot volition larn some sentiment of the tech.
Note that this is a laminate production procedure – the starting production is a gyre of pre-impregnated carbon fiber. The supplier of that is Hexcel (based inwards Stamford) as well as the resin is supplied past times Hercules. The Hexcel IR told us that the room is also refrigerated because the pre-preg goes off if warm.
Rolls Royce convey ever maintained that the Rolls Royce titanium blades are merely every bit practiced every bit the GE blades. (GE of course of written report differs as well as you lot tin encounter their pitch hither - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy4A-z2WKhw.)
In fairness the claim to the most efficient long-haul engine has fluctuated betwixt GE as well as Rolls alongside most the fourth dimension Rolls having the electrical flow leader. This suggests that Rolls’ claim is okay.
One affair is indisputable. H5N1 composite fan requires gets paired alongside a composite fan-blade case. And that is lighter than a metallic one. This is the brain expanse inwards which GE engines are lighter than Rolls Royce ones. (There is an offsetting Rolls Royce wages explained inwards this weblog post… https://leehamnews.com/2014/07/10/is-the-a330neo-engine-rolls-royces-first-carbon-fan-model/)
For the most business office - especially given the higher upward weblog post - I am generally comfortable alongside Rolls Royce's claim that the titanium sandwich fan blade is competitive alongside carbon fiber blades.
Or I was comfortable earlier this: a video of a next-generation Rolls Royce engine (scheduled for a 2025 release…)
This is a celluloid of a 747 flight alongside 3 criterion engines as well as a "donor engine". The donor engine is real large as well as the fan blade is blue. It is bluish because the blade is made of plastics.
When Luke as well as I went on a manufacturing flora tour of Rolls Royce nosotros asked them how they reconciled their previous statements that their titanium blades are every bit practiced every bit composite blades alongside the obvious enquiry they were doing on composite blades.
Their answer: titanium blades are thinner than composite blades. This agency that for similar aerodynamics they tin live made less deep than composite blades – as well as this offsets the weight wages of composite blades. This I convey seen alongside my ain eyes (sorry I do non convey pictures) but the Rolls Royce blades are indeed less deep than the composite blades. This tin sort of live seen inwards the higher upward videos every bit well.
Then the clincher. The novel engineering volition allow composite fan blades to live made every bit sparse every bit titanium ones – as well as hence (at to the lowest degree on engines larger than a corporate jet) the titanium ones volition live obsolete.
It was this give-and-take that led us to Albany International.
Albany as well as LEAP engines
We know for certain that this is beingness used every bit the blade on the LEAP engine. Here is a video of the Rochester flora (see painting above)…
Note that it is a Safran flora but the signage shows it to live a JV alongside Albany. Moreover the video clearly shows carbon fiber beingness woven inwards an apparently complicated pattern. (Hexcel has confirmed to us that they furnish the fibers to this plant.)
Moreover nosotros convey a press release from SAFRAN.
Moreover they convey a similar JV flora inwards France.
And hither is the French Prime Minister visiting a JV flora inwards France. There is a similar video a yr agone alongside the French President.
This is apparently pretty of import to Safran. Again it is quite clearly a articulation venture alongside plenty of staff inwards Albany uniforms.
Questions nosotros should recall most answering
- What are the price of the JV as well as how does Albany larn paid? It seems inwards the press liberate to live an equal partnership but honestly I do non know.
C-FAN (the master composite fan blade business) is a JV betwixt SAFRAN as well as GE. And only GE planes wing them. Is this a JV betwixt Albany as well as SAFRAN because the JV wants to sell to parties other than GE (ie Rolls, Pratt & Whitney)?
- First question: Who provided the engineering for the Rolls Royce composite blade (ie the bluish ane inwards the video above).
We know a piddling most the Rolls fan from this press release – as well as it does non expression similar a braided/woven fan blade – which is somewhat contradictory of the declaration above. In it Rolls says:
The novel CTi blade is created past times laying strips of carbon fibre, pre-impregnated alongside an epoxy resin, into a mould using a precision controlled robot. This is so cured inwards an autoclave past times applying temperature as well as push clitoris per unit of measurement area (a flake similar a real advanced push clitoris per unit of measurement area cooker). The moulded blade is precision machined as well as coated earlier a titanium sheath is bonded to the front end edge. The finished element is inspected as well as measured using ultrasound as well as subjected to real rigorous mechanical testing
This looks a lot similar the C-Fan video aboce – rather than the Albany-SAFRAN JV. Moreover the partner is GKN – the auto companionship that happens to brand some carbon fiber components for the A350 – as well as that is non this sort of weaving. Those products are traditional carbon fiber laminates.
- Second question: What are the opportunities for Albany for aerospace projects beyond the ones listed. [I get together for instance that it is non possible to retrofit carbon fans to old engines because because the residue of the engine is essentially paired alongside a fan technology…]
- Third question: What are Pratt & Whitney doing re composite fan blades? I do non know but the forwards monastic tell majority of their geared turbofan production is pretty good. Getting the Pratt concern would live nice. The GTF production likely has dissimilar forces on fan blades because the companionship has a gear box which slows the front end fan blade downward compared to the engine core.
- And finally the critical question: what eventual margin tin I await for all this business. My jurist is most xxx percentage – which seems most right for a novel tech inwards aerospace – but inwards all honesty that is a direct guess. That would live plenty margin to larn excited most this stock.
If nosotros tin clear all this how do nosotros value it?
I convey deleted this section. It was a piddling unsmooth - as well as you lot love reader tin do that yourself.
---
Now all this was a "work program" as well as nosotros did plenty of work. And at that topographic point are several things inwards this I know at ane time to live wrong. For instance the geared turbofan has a metallic fan every bit per this Alcoa video:
I suspect other suggestions inwards the move programme are wrong. I am happy to live corrected. Email, phone. Please live inwards contact.
John Hempton
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