A Divided Nation

After the Brexit vote, economists in addition to others who voted Remain are quite correct to here):

“Bringing together the dissatisfied of Tunbridge Wells in addition to the downtrodden of Merseyside is a remarkable feat, in addition to it stems from UKIP’s empathy for those who receive got been left behind yesteryear the relentless march of globalisation in addition to glib liberalism.”

Both these explanations run into antagonism to the thought (rather than the actuality) of migration equally the way an underlying grievance got translated into a dislike of the EU. But was immigration actually in addition to then crucial? H5N1 widely quoted poll yesteryear Lord Ashcroft says a wishing for sovereignty was to a greater extent than important. The work here, of course, is that sovereignty - in addition to a phrase similar taking dorsum command - is an all embracing term which mightiness good live on seen equally to a greater extent than encompassing than simply a concern well-nigh immigration. It actually needs a follow-up quest what aspects of sovereignty are important. If nosotros aspect at what Leavers thought was important, the “ability to command our ain laws” seemed to receive got trivial to practise alongside the terminal vote compared to to a greater extent than touchstone concerns, including immigration.

However at that topographic point are other aspects of the Ashcroft poll that I think are revealing. First, economical arguments were of import for Remain voters. The economical message did teach through to many voters. Second, the NHS was of import to Leave voters, in addition to then the bespeak economists besides made that ending gratuitous movement would impairment the NHS was either non believed or did non teach through to this group. Indeed “more than 2 thirds (69%) of leavers, yesteryear contrast, thought the determination “might brand us a flake amend or worse off equally a country, but at that topographic point likely isn’t much inwards it either way””. Whether they did non know well-nigh the overwhelming consensus amid economists who thought otherwise, or chose to ignore it, nosotros cannot tell.

Third, Leave voters are far to a greater extent than pessimistic well-nigh the future, in addition to besides tend to believe that life today is much worse than life thirty years ago. Finally, those who thought the next were a root of sick rather than adept - multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, globalisation, the internet, the greenish movement in addition to immigration - tended yesteryear large majorities to vote Leave. Only inwards the illustration of capitalism did equally many Remain in addition to Leave voters get upwards it equally a root of ill. These results advise that Leave voters were those left behind inwards modern social club inwards either an economical or social way (or mayhap both).

Taking all this evidence into draw of piece of work organisation human relationship it seems that the Brexit vote was a protestation vote against both the ship on of globalisation in addition to social liberalism. The 2 are connected yesteryear immigration, in addition to of class the i certainty of the Brexit debate was that gratuitous movement prevented controls on European Union migration. But that does non hateful defeat was inevitable, equally Chris say I told yous in addition to then equally the economical striking they expected comes to pass. The Brexit Bust needs to live on labelled clearly, given the powerfulness the Leave side has over the agency of communication. (Those behind that get are already here):

“Bringing together the dissatisfied of Tunbridge Wells in addition to the downtrodden of Merseyside is a remarkable feat, in addition to it stems from UKIP’s empathy for those who receive got been left behind yesteryear the relentless march of globalisation in addition to glib liberalism.”

Both these explanations run into antagonism to the thought (rather than the actuality) of migration equally the way an underlying grievance got translated into a dislike of the EU. But was immigration actually in addition to then crucial? H5N1 widely quoted poll yesteryear Lord Ashcroft says a wishing for sovereignty was to a greater extent than important. The work here, of course, is that sovereignty - in addition to a phrase similar taking dorsum command - is an all embracing term which mightiness good live on seen equally to a greater extent than encompassing than simply a concern well-nigh immigration. It actually needs a follow-up quest what aspects of sovereignty are important. If nosotros aspect at what Leavers thought was important, the “ability to command our ain laws” seemed to receive got trivial to practise alongside the terminal vote compared to to a greater extent than touchstone concerns, including immigration.

However at that topographic point are other aspects of the Ashcroft poll that I think are revealing. First, economical arguments were of import for Remain voters. The economical message did teach through to many voters. Second, the NHS was of import to Leave voters, in addition to then the bespeak economists besides made that ending gratuitous movement would impairment the NHS was either non believed or did non teach through to this group. Indeed “more than 2 thirds (69%) of leavers, yesteryear contrast, thought the determination “might brand us a flake amend or worse off equally a country, but at that topographic point likely isn’t much inwards it either way””. Whether they did non know well-nigh the overwhelming consensus amid economists who thought otherwise, or chose to ignore it, nosotros cannot tell.

Third, Leave voters are far to a greater extent than pessimistic well-nigh the future, in addition to besides tend to believe that life today is much worse than life thirty years ago. Finally, those who thought the next were a root of sick rather than adept - multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, globalisation, the internet, the greenish movement in addition to immigration - tended yesteryear large majorities to vote Leave. Only inwards the illustration of capitalism did equally many Remain in addition to Leave voters get upwards it equally a root of ill. These results advise that Leave voters were those left behind inwards modern social club inwards either an economical or social way (or mayhap both).

Taking all this evidence into draw of piece of work organisation human relationship it seems that the Brexit vote was a protestation vote against both the ship on of globalisation in addition to social liberalism. The 2 are connected yesteryear immigration, in addition to of class the i certainty of the Brexit debate was that gratuitous movement prevented controls on European Union migration. But that does non hateful defeat was inevitable, equally Chris finding that areas hard striking yesteryear globalisation tended to vote Leave, in addition to adds an explanation that sees the press in addition to politicians actively trying to link the sense of disadvantage to the number of immigration. It is an declaration I receive got besides here):

“Bringing together the dissatisfied of Tunbridge Wells in addition to the downtrodden of Merseyside is a remarkable feat, in addition to it stems from UKIP’s empathy for those who receive got been left behind yesteryear the relentless march of globalisation in addition to glib liberalism.”

Both these explanations run into antagonism to the thought (rather than the actuality) of migration equally the way an underlying grievance got translated into a dislike of the EU. But was immigration actually in addition to then crucial? H5N1 widely quoted poll yesteryear Lord Ashcroft says a wishing for sovereignty was to a greater extent than important. The work here, of course, is that sovereignty - in addition to a phrase similar taking dorsum command - is an all embracing term which mightiness good live on seen equally to a greater extent than encompassing than simply a concern well-nigh immigration. It actually needs a follow-up quest what aspects of sovereignty are important. If nosotros aspect at what Leavers thought was important, the “ability to command our ain laws” seemed to receive got trivial to practise alongside the terminal vote compared to to a greater extent than touchstone concerns, including immigration.

However at that topographic point are other aspects of the Ashcroft poll that I think are revealing. First, economical arguments were of import for Remain voters. The economical message did teach through to many voters. Second, the NHS was of import to Leave voters, in addition to then the bespeak economists besides made that ending gratuitous movement would impairment the NHS was either non believed or did non teach through to this group. Indeed “more than 2 thirds (69%) of leavers, yesteryear contrast, thought the determination “might brand us a flake amend or worse off equally a country, but at that topographic point likely isn’t much inwards it either way””. Whether they did non know well-nigh the overwhelming consensus amid economists who thought otherwise, or chose to ignore it, nosotros cannot tell.

Third, Leave voters are far to a greater extent than pessimistic well-nigh the future, in addition to besides tend to believe that life today is much worse than life thirty years ago. Finally, those who thought the next were a root of sick rather than adept - multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, globalisation, the internet, the greenish movement in addition to immigration - tended yesteryear large majorities to vote Leave. Only inwards the illustration of capitalism did equally many Remain in addition to Leave voters get upwards it equally a root of ill. These results advise that Leave voters were those left behind inwards modern social club inwards either an economical or social way (or mayhap both).

Taking all this evidence into draw of piece of work organisation human relationship it seems that the Brexit vote was a protestation vote against both the ship on of globalisation in addition to social liberalism. The 2 are connected yesteryear immigration, in addition to of class the i certainty of the Brexit debate was that gratuitous movement prevented controls on European Union migration. But that does non hateful defeat was inevitable, equally Chris made. Unfortunately it is an declaration that is rattling hard to bear witness using regression analysis, because - equally newspapers oftentimes debate - they may impress simply what sells newspapers, in addition to then whatsoever correlation does non imply causation.

It is besides of import to retrieve that the link betwixt voting Leave in addition to areas of deindustrialisation is inwards additional to the potent links alongside pedagogy in addition to age. Education may check inwards alongside a even out where the anti-EU opinion (to say bias does non practise it justice) of most of the tabloid press is important, for obvious reasons. The same is truthful alongside age, equally younger people are probable to teach their data yesteryear other agency than the tabloid press.   

There is another, rattling different, draw of declaration that tries to explicate the Leave vote non inwards damage of cast but psychology/culture. Eric Kaufmann finds elementary correlations betwixt voting Leave in addition to authoritarianism. H5N1 even out yous tin tell is that, for some at least, Brexit was a vote against non neoliberalism but social liberalism. The link betwixt social liberalism in addition to the European Union is i time once to a greater extent than migration, which represents i to a greater extent than unwelcome alter for social conservatives. Social conservatism in addition to authoritarianism may besides map to a greater extent than easily into nationalism in addition to wanting to 'take control', in addition to it was here):

“Bringing together the dissatisfied of Tunbridge Wells in addition to the downtrodden of Merseyside is a remarkable feat, in addition to it stems from UKIP’s empathy for those who receive got been left behind yesteryear the relentless march of globalisation in addition to glib liberalism.”

Both these explanations run into antagonism to the thought (rather than the actuality) of migration equally the way an underlying grievance got translated into a dislike of the EU. But was immigration actually in addition to then crucial? H5N1 widely quoted poll yesteryear Lord Ashcroft says a wishing for sovereignty was to a greater extent than important. The work here, of course, is that sovereignty - in addition to a phrase similar taking dorsum command - is an all embracing term which mightiness good live on seen equally to a greater extent than encompassing than simply a concern well-nigh immigration. It actually needs a follow-up quest what aspects of sovereignty are important. If nosotros aspect at what Leavers thought was important, the “ability to command our ain laws” seemed to receive got trivial to practise alongside the terminal vote compared to to a greater extent than touchstone concerns, including immigration.

However at that topographic point are other aspects of the Ashcroft poll that I think are revealing. First, economical arguments were of import for Remain voters. The economical message did teach through to many voters. Second, the NHS was of import to Leave voters, in addition to then the bespeak economists besides made that ending gratuitous movement would impairment the NHS was either non believed or did non teach through to this group. Indeed “more than 2 thirds (69%) of leavers, yesteryear contrast, thought the determination “might brand us a flake amend or worse off equally a country, but at that topographic point likely isn’t much inwards it either way””. Whether they did non know well-nigh the overwhelming consensus amid economists who thought otherwise, or chose to ignore it, nosotros cannot tell.

Third, Leave voters are far to a greater extent than pessimistic well-nigh the future, in addition to besides tend to believe that life today is much worse than life thirty years ago. Finally, those who thought the next were a root of sick rather than adept - multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, globalisation, the internet, the greenish movement in addition to immigration - tended yesteryear large majorities to vote Leave. Only inwards the illustration of capitalism did equally many Remain in addition to Leave voters get upwards it equally a root of ill. These results advise that Leave voters were those left behind inwards modern social club inwards either an economical or social way (or mayhap both).

Taking all this evidence into draw of piece of work organisation human relationship it seems that the Brexit vote was a protestation vote against both the ship on of globalisation in addition to social liberalism. The 2 are connected yesteryear immigration, in addition to of class the i certainty of the Brexit debate was that gratuitous movement prevented controls on European Union migration. But that does non hateful defeat was inevitable, equally Chris part of the tabloid 'grooming' to practise just that. Social conservatism may besides explicate the importance of historic menses in addition to mayhap besides education.

There is no ground why nosotros demand to select betwixt the economical in addition to the social types of explanation. Kaufmann in addition to Johnston et al tin both live on right. As Max Wind-Cowie says (quoted yesteryear Rick here):

“Bringing together the dissatisfied of Tunbridge Wells in addition to the downtrodden of Merseyside is a remarkable feat, in addition to it stems from UKIP’s empathy for those who receive got been left behind yesteryear the relentless march of globalisation in addition to glib liberalism.”

Both these explanations run into antagonism to the thought (rather than the actuality) of migration equally the way an underlying grievance got translated into a dislike of the EU. But was immigration actually in addition to then crucial? H5N1 widely quoted poll yesteryear Lord Ashcroft says a wishing for sovereignty was to a greater extent than important. The work here, of course, is that sovereignty - in addition to a phrase similar taking dorsum command - is an all embracing term which mightiness good live on seen equally to a greater extent than encompassing than simply a concern well-nigh immigration. It actually needs a follow-up quest what aspects of sovereignty are important. If nosotros aspect at what Leavers thought was important, the “ability to command our ain laws” seemed to receive got trivial to practise alongside the terminal vote compared to to a greater extent than touchstone concerns, including immigration.

However at that topographic point are other aspects of the Ashcroft poll that I think are revealing. First, economical arguments were of import for Remain voters. The economical message did teach through to many voters. Second, the NHS was of import to Leave voters, in addition to then the bespeak economists besides made that ending gratuitous movement would impairment the NHS was either non believed or did non teach through to this group. Indeed “more than 2 thirds (69%) of leavers, yesteryear contrast, thought the determination “might brand us a flake amend or worse off equally a country, but at that topographic point likely isn’t much inwards it either way””. Whether they did non know well-nigh the overwhelming consensus amid economists who thought otherwise, or chose to ignore it, nosotros cannot tell.

Third, Leave voters are far to a greater extent than pessimistic well-nigh the future, in addition to besides tend to believe that life today is much worse than life thirty years ago. Finally, those who thought the next were a root of sick rather than adept - multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, globalisation, the internet, the greenish movement in addition to immigration - tended yesteryear large majorities to vote Leave. Only inwards the illustration of capitalism did equally many Remain in addition to Leave voters get upwards it equally a root of ill. These results advise that Leave voters were those left behind inwards modern social club inwards either an economical or social way (or mayhap both).

Taking all this evidence into draw of piece of work organisation human relationship it seems that the Brexit vote was a protestation vote against both the ship on of globalisation in addition to social liberalism. The 2 are connected yesteryear immigration, in addition to of class the i certainty of the Brexit debate was that gratuitous movement prevented controls on European Union migration. But that does non hateful defeat was inevitable, equally Chris makes clear. Kevin O’Rourke points out that the province tin play an active operate inwards compensating the losers from globalisation, in addition to of class inwards recent years at that topographic point has been an endeavour to coil dorsum the state. Furthermore, equally Johnston et al suggest, the connecter betwixt economical spend upwards in addition to immigration is to a greater extent than manufactured than real. Tomorrow I’ll hash out both the get in addition to what implications this all mightiness have.

[1] Please permit me know if I missed whatsoever studies. One I institute out well-nigh equally this post was well-nigh to live on published was here):

“Bringing together the dissatisfied of Tunbridge Wells in addition to the downtrodden of Merseyside is a remarkable feat, in addition to it stems from UKIP’s empathy for those who receive got been left behind yesteryear the relentless march of globalisation in addition to glib liberalism.”

Both these explanations run into antagonism to the thought (rather than the actuality) of migration equally the way an underlying grievance got translated into a dislike of the EU. But was immigration actually in addition to then crucial? H5N1 widely quoted poll yesteryear Lord Ashcroft says a wishing for sovereignty was to a greater extent than important. The work here, of course, is that sovereignty - in addition to a phrase similar taking dorsum command - is an all embracing term which mightiness good live on seen equally to a greater extent than encompassing than simply a concern well-nigh immigration. It actually needs a follow-up quest what aspects of sovereignty are important. If nosotros aspect at what Leavers thought was important, the “ability to command our ain laws” seemed to receive got trivial to practise alongside the terminal vote compared to to a greater extent than touchstone concerns, including immigration.

However at that topographic point are other aspects of the Ashcroft poll that I think are revealing. First, economical arguments were of import for Remain voters. The economical message did teach through to many voters. Second, the NHS was of import to Leave voters, in addition to then the bespeak economists besides made that ending gratuitous movement would impairment the NHS was either non believed or did non teach through to this group. Indeed “more than 2 thirds (69%) of leavers, yesteryear contrast, thought the determination “might brand us a flake amend or worse off equally a country, but at that topographic point likely isn’t much inwards it either way””. Whether they did non know well-nigh the overwhelming consensus amid economists who thought otherwise, or chose to ignore it, nosotros cannot tell.

Third, Leave voters are far to a greater extent than pessimistic well-nigh the future, in addition to besides tend to believe that life today is much worse than life thirty years ago. Finally, those who thought the next were a root of sick rather than adept - multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, globalisation, the internet, the greenish movement in addition to immigration - tended yesteryear large majorities to vote Leave. Only inwards the illustration of capitalism did equally many Remain in addition to Leave voters get upwards it equally a root of ill. These results advise that Leave voters were those left behind inwards modern social club inwards either an economical or social way (or mayhap both).

Taking all this evidence into draw of piece of work organisation human relationship it seems that the Brexit vote was a protestation vote against both the ship on of globalisation in addition to social liberalism. The 2 are connected yesteryear immigration, in addition to of class the i certainty of the Brexit debate was that gratuitous movement prevented controls on European Union migration. But that does non hateful defeat was inevitable, equally Chris this yesteryear Richard Mann.

Rolling Postscript: Studies I've seen since. This yesteryear Jo Michell (particularly on migration impact). Geoff Tily argues that London may live on special.