Brexit Analysis (Why 1 Avoided It)

The Great Britain is belongings a plebiscite alongside regards to European Union membership on June 23rd (link to BBC explainer).  This  brief article explains inwards betoken shape why I convey largely avoided the topic. (UPDATE: Based on the results, I in all likelihood should convey kept avoiding the topic...) I volition supply to the consequences of the vote 1 time the dust settles.

• Bias. Despite my Canadian accent in addition to outlandish household unit of measurement name, I lived inwards the U.K. in addition to was somewhat assimilated. My bias is to endure pro-Brexit. Furthermore, I convey a commercial involvement inwards fiscal in addition to economical crises (more page views!).
• "Leave" unlikely to win. I convey seen a lot of referenda closed up, courtesy of living inwards La Belle Province. My sense is that at that topographic point is ever a large shift towards the condition quo relative to poll results when y'all human face at the concluding results. This is either the outcome of mutual depression temperature difficult reflection when ballots are beingness cast, or the vogue of older voters alongside to a greater extent than "conservative" tendencies having a higher voter turnout. (UPDATE: The larn out polls blew my theory virtually older voters out of the water; it was the older voter bloc inwards England that shifted the poll towards "Leave." I misjudged what these voters considered the "status quo.")
• "Remain" analysis obvious. If anything moves inwards reply to take in polls, human face it to revert. (For Quebec referenda, the winning merchandise has ever been to purchase Quebec bonds.)
• Even if "Leave" wins, naught may happen. Referenda are betrayal of Britain's parliamentary tradition. (See what I wrote virtually assimilation?) They are non legally binding. Anyone who is pro-EU yesteryear Definition does non aid virtually the interests of private nation-states, in addition to and hence is going to convey no qualms ignoring the outcome of a referendum. (See what I wrote virtually bias?)
• What happens - who knows? Even if the U.K. tries to negotiate an exit, what volition need house volition depend upon the outcome of negotiations. Right now, musical note deaf continental politicians are threatening the U.K., but the disastrous the world of the euro expanse economic scheme agency that they convey a weak negotiating position. An intelligent U.K. authorities could presumably cutting a create produce that limits the short-term disruption.
  UPDATE: With Cameron stepping down, the U.K. authorities volition convey a stronger bargaining position. The euro is currently beingness held together yesteryear spit in addition to baling wire, in addition to and hence the European Union leadership should elbow grease to avoid equally good deep a confrontation, equally the blowback onto their ain economies could endure disastrous. Whether they are intelligent plenty to meet that, or whether they volition elbow grease to process the U.K. similar Greece, remains to endure seen. Based upon centuries of European history, I am non just confident that the European Union governing elites volition follow a sensible course of pedagogy of action.
• Short-term: in addition to hence what? The International Monetary Fund is plainly predicting a recession if Great Britain leaves the European Union (Guardian article). The U.S.A. had a severe recession inwards 1948-1949, courtesy of post-war demobilisation. (This recession is infamous, equally crackpot economists convey used it equally testify that high high authorities debt levels displace deep recessions.) The right mental attitude is: in addition to hence what? Was the U.S.A. supposed to remain on a full state of war basis forever, in addition to hence equally to avoid a recession? Anything that disrupts the existing patterns of commerce is probable to displace a recession, but nosotros cannot follow the same ruts forever. Nations convey a welfare the world to cushion the blow the recessions.
• Long-term: depends upon your politics.  Pro-EU partisans volition endure happy to explicate how beingness business office of the European Union has helped brand the Great Britain internationally competitive. Anti-EU analysts would interrogation the wisdom of tying Great Britain to an increasingly autocratic, stiff European Union that is strangling itself alongside austerity policies. The determination is a political decision, which is just what the plebiscite voters are beingness consulted upon.

(c) Brian Romanchuk 2016