Five Modest Thoughts On The Spill Statement

I talked nigh the large painting exhibit here as well as here, but equally e'er in that place is a lot of interesting detail. Here are 5 thoughts that I own got non seen expressed elsewhere.

1) Tax credits. As people gradually began to twig, the U-turn on taxation credits is solely temporary: most taxation credits volition give-up the ghost business office of Universal Credit when it is introduced, as well as the cuts in that place remain. As the Resolution Foundation point out, the testify suggests that higher payroll taxes (‘taxes on jobs’), which this levy essentially is, volition last largely met yesteryear firms paying lower wages. But if the Chancellor had raised the same total of coin yesteryear increasing employees NICs, everyone would last making much to a greater extent than fuss nigh this taxation growth (particularly equally he had pledged non to create so).

One request I didn’t listen mentioned is that nosotros used to own got an apprenticeship levy - it was abolished yesteryear Mrs. Thatcher.

3) Democracy. I’m occasionally told that I’m also critical of this government, as well as simply about fifty-fifty suggested on Wed that this Autumn Statement represented a motility to capture the ticker ground. But the Statement included a 19% cutting inwards coin provided to opposition parties. The Treasury said it was “time for political parties to describe their weight inwards hard times.” I intend the principal executive of the Electoral Reform Society was nearer the grade when she said it was “bad tidings for democracy”.

4) Labour. Talking of opposition, in that place was a lovely minute at the cease of Osborne’s speech where he noted that Labour had suggested perhaps a 10% cutting inwards coin for constabulary was appropriate, solely to denote no cutting at all. It was simply ane to a greater extent than illustration of how timid Labour has become. Would it own got dared growth the postage stamp duty on 2nd homes/buy to permit yesteryear thence much? And as well as then of class in that place was the higher minimum wage inwards July.

I commonly assay to avoid watching/reading political speeches, as well as solely turned the TV on to meet how John McDonnell performed. As I own got said before, many on the left are their ain worst enemies when it comes to the upshot of political spin. They despise it, which is well for y'all inwards itself, but they genuinely involve to last far ameliorate at it than their opponents because of media bias. Of class simply about things are thence blindingly obvious …

5) Fragile financial forecasts. The thing I genuinely dislike nigh occasions similar this is all the emphasis on the aggregate financial numbers. Some people seemed surprised that the OBR should brand such a large alter to its taxation accept forecast, but equally a ane fourth dimension forecaster it did non surprise me a bit. Macro forecasts are really unreliable anyway, as well as ane of the hardest macro numbers to forecast is the budget deficit. Yet people obsess over pocket-sized changes to the deficit inwards hereafter years, equally if this mattered. It does not.

One concluding comment on comments. This cease of austerity meme is silly. Here is a chart.