Can Greece Leave?
Is Grexit fifty-fifty possible?
It strikes me that the best Hellenic Republic tin give the axe practice amongst a Drachma is to practice a two-currency system, kind out of similar Republic of Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek regime seems to admire, together with whose economies its may shortly resemble.
If the regime brings dorsum the Drachma as a trend to pay pensions, regime salaries, together with banking concern accounts, Euros volition withal circulate inwards Greece.
18% of Greek gross domestic product is tourism. That publish may endure understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants, stores, transport, together with other places that mix tourists together with locals. Tourists volition pass Euros, non Drachmas. So hotels, gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, clothe stores, airlines, automobile rentals, etc. volition probable withal gladly induce got euros together with euro credit cards, together with from locals also every bit tourists.
I looked upward Greek gross domestic product at the OECD. Of 157 billion euros value added, agriculture is a tiny 6, manufacture 18, of which manufacturing 13. However, services are 130, 80% of the total. Here, the big items are "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation together with food" 41, existent estate activities 34, together with world direction 39. Exports together with imports are each nearly lx out of 180 billion euros.
Now, anyone exporting -- lx out of 157 -- has access to euros together with probable invoice inwards euros give thank you lot you really much. Anyone importing volition postulate to larn their hands on those euros.
(Interestingly most exports are services, most imports are goods. I can't larn a handgrip on what services Hellenic Republic exports, together with thence whether devaluation would brand much difference.)
The 41 billion of "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation together with food" services volition sure as shooting induce got euros every bit above, to convenience the tourist trade. I can't fathom how 34 billion euros are existent estate services -- non structure -- together with so I can't estimate actually if that is euros or Drachmas. The 39 billion of world direction gets Drachmas.
So, the Drachmaized Hellenic Republic that I run into is non the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that around on the left seem to envision. Instead I run into a two-currency economy. Pensioners together with regime workers together with anyone unlucky plenty to withal induce got a Greek banking concern concern human relationship larn Drachmas. Hotel owners, eating theater owners, together with exporters larn euros, higher upward or nether the table.
In this scenario, I can't imagine a freely convertible currency. Will the regime actually give 100 Drachmas to mortal who used to larn 100 Euros, amongst an central charge per unit of measurement below half? The betoken of non cutting salaries was political. So nosotros are almost certain to run into majuscule controls, central controls, together with a fictional overvalued central rate, together with so Hellenic Republic tin give the axe pretend to pay pensioners together with regime workers.
It's non a pretty thought. Sticking amongst the euro seems a far improve option, merely similar sticking amongst the meter.
It strikes me that the best Hellenic Republic tin give the axe practice amongst a Drachma is to practice a two-currency system, kind out of similar Republic of Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek regime seems to admire, together with whose economies its may shortly resemble.
If the regime brings dorsum the Drachma as a trend to pay pensions, regime salaries, together with banking concern accounts, Euros volition withal circulate inwards Greece.
18% of Greek gross domestic product is tourism. That publish may endure understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants, stores, transport, together with other places that mix tourists together with locals. Tourists volition pass Euros, non Drachmas. So hotels, gas stations, restaurants, grocery stores, clothe stores, airlines, automobile rentals, etc. volition probable withal gladly induce got euros together with euro credit cards, together with from locals also every bit tourists.
I looked upward Greek gross domestic product at the OECD. Of 157 billion euros value added, agriculture is a tiny 6, manufacture 18, of which manufacturing 13. However, services are 130, 80% of the total. Here, the big items are "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation together with food" 41, existent estate activities 34, together with world direction 39. Exports together with imports are each nearly lx out of 180 billion euros.
Now, anyone exporting -- lx out of 157 -- has access to euros together with probable invoice inwards euros give thank you lot you really much. Anyone importing volition postulate to larn their hands on those euros.
(Interestingly most exports are services, most imports are goods. I can't larn a handgrip on what services Hellenic Republic exports, together with thence whether devaluation would brand much difference.)
The 41 billion of "distribution, trade, repairs, transportation accommodation together with food" services volition sure as shooting induce got euros every bit above, to convenience the tourist trade. I can't fathom how 34 billion euros are existent estate services -- non structure -- together with so I can't estimate actually if that is euros or Drachmas. The 39 billion of world direction gets Drachmas.
So, the Drachmaized Hellenic Republic that I run into is non the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that around on the left seem to envision. Instead I run into a two-currency economy. Pensioners together with regime workers together with anyone unlucky plenty to withal induce got a Greek banking concern concern human relationship larn Drachmas. Hotel owners, eating theater owners, together with exporters larn euros, higher upward or nether the table.
In this scenario, I can't imagine a freely convertible currency. Will the regime actually give 100 Drachmas to mortal who used to larn 100 Euros, amongst an central charge per unit of measurement below half? The betoken of non cutting salaries was political. So nosotros are almost certain to run into majuscule controls, central controls, together with a fictional overvalued central rate, together with so Hellenic Republic tin give the axe pretend to pay pensioners together with regime workers.
It's non a pretty thought. Sticking amongst the euro seems a far improve option, merely similar sticking amongst the meter.
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