When To Become To Bed Tonight

For Great Britain readers

I did this analysis for my ain benefit, but in that place may survive others who need to survive broad awake on Fri who mightiness notice this data useful. But if y'all retire early the solid soil of this post as well as notice out things are real different when y'all wake up, I accept no responsibility! My macro y'all tin believe in; amongst this materials I’m an amateur.

Unless electrical flow polls are wildly wrong, in that place are entirely ii likely results: the continuation of the electrical flow coalition (except inwards the unlikely trial that the LibDem political party rejects its leadership), or a Labour authorities amongst SNP support. There volition survive plenty of interesting side-issues going on equally good (how dominant volition the SNP be, how many seats volition UKIP win), but the principal termination volition depend on the Labour/Conservative marginals which Labour must win to shape a government, as well as that is what I focus on here.

10pm

One obvious strategy is to switch the TV off when the larn out polls are announced later the polls close. They volition of course of report tell us a lot, but they are non nearly equally infallible equally y'all mightiness at begin intend - inwards fact the data they supply has to survive processed inwards diverse ways, equally these ii studies spell out (HT Chris Giles). Those producing the poll know they could easily survive wrong.

11pm-1am

No of import marginals are expected to declare earlier 1pm, but the begin results volition survive an additional indicator of the national swing. (Remember the Conservative's actual vote portion is commonly greater than inwards the terminal consider polls: the 'shy Tory' effect.) To hand y'all an thought of how closed it volition be, both YouGov as well as Elections etc propose that a 3% quest Conservative Pb (e.g. 35 to 32) volition gain a Cameron victory (but in all probability depending on the DUP), spell Election forecasts propose a 2% quest Conservative Pb gives a terminal Lab+SNP topographic point full of simply over 315, which should survive plenty for a Miliband minority authorities amongst SNP as well as shaver political party support. 

However, similar the larn out polls, these early indications may survive misleading. H5N1 slap-up bargain depends on the extent of tactical voting, as well as inwards detail almost many UKIP supporters are prepared to vote for some other political party inwards a marginal seat. 

1am-3am

Many Labour/Conservative marginals are predicted to declare some 3am, but in that place are 5 exceptions. Probably the begin is Nuneton, expected at 1am. This should survive a Labour gain - if it is not, things are looking real skillful for the Conservatives. If Labour win this hence the adjacent critical topographic point could survive Northampton North at almost 2am - a existent knife border seat. If Labour win this easily things are looking skillful for them, but a closed loss mightiness non survive fatal. (Look at what happens to the UKIP vote: if the Conservatives win amongst a UKIP vote portion of some 10% or less, that is a skillful sign for the Conservatives.)

Two other Lab/Con marginals that mightiness declare earlier 3am are Chester as well as Warrington South. Chester should survive a Labour gain, but Warrington South is some other knife border seat. Both LibDem as well as UKIP back upwardly is pregnant hither (15% as well as 10% respectively) hence if either breaks inwards i administration this could determine the result. Cleethorpes may equally good declare earlier 3am: a recent Ashcroft poll gave the Conservatives a 2 quest Pb here, hence a Labour gain would survive a slap-up termination for them.

If Labour lose 4 or to a greater extent than of these five, I intend y'all tin almost surely operate to bed at this phase knowing that Cameron volition remain Prime Minister. If Labour wins 4 or five, Miliband is looking good, but to survive sure y'all need to remain upwardly a combat longer. Another interesting topographic point that may come upwardly inwards some 2am is Rutherglen & Hamilton West - if Labour amongst a skillful local MP lose this to the SNP, they volition in all probability lose nearly all their Scottish seats.

3am

Around 3am a whole clutch of seats are due to declare:

Amber Valley: probable Lab gain, but amongst a potentially large UKIP (>10%) vote

Bedford: another likely Lab gain, but amongst pregnant (around 12%) UKIP as well as LibDem support

Brent Central: almost sure Lab gain, but if closed a worry for Labour’s potential London gains

Bristol West: real likely Labour gain if Ashcroft poll is correct - exterior Green chance

Bury North: likely Lab gain, but in i trial to a greater extent than potentially large (13%) UKIP support

Carlisle: as above

Croydon Central: a real pregnant London seat. This was thought to survive a potential Lab gain, but a real recent Ashcroft poll gave this to the Cons.

Erewash: as Bury North

Hastings: should survive a Labour gain, but UKIP could spoil things here

Hornsey: potential Labour gain from LibDems, but volition Cons vote tactically?

Peterborough: If Labour wins this (as a recent Ashcroft poll suggested) this volition survive a skillful termination for them. UKIP could in i trial to a greater extent than survive crucial.

Stockton S: Another existent marginal, that a recent Ashcroft poll gave to Labour

If Labour gain less than viii of these seats, Cameron is in all probability going to survive the adjacent PM. If they gain them all, Miliband in all probability volition be. Anything inwards between, as well as y'all volition withdraw keep to hold back some other threescore minutes earlier things operate clearer. Or amongst 8 or nine fundamental marginals non expected to declare until some 5pm, y'all could simply determine to telephone telephone it a dark as well as notice out inwards the morning!