Chaos Theory

There is approximately evidence that the Conservatives accept finally constitute a scare story that works. We in all probability volition non know how large or long lasting it volition live until afterwards the election. However, equally scare stories are to a greater extent than frequently than non myths, in addition to I directly accept a professional person interest inwards mythmaking, I sentiment it would live worth cry for why this i has stuck whereas before attempts accept failed. [1]

Here were approximately before but unsuccessful attempts.

1)    ‘Labour volition bankrupt the economy, again’. Given mediamacro, this should accept worked. But I suspect this work was ruined when Cameron started to hope to taxation less in addition to pass to a greater extent than in addition to cut back the deficit. You cannot base of operations your financial policy on domicile economic science in addition to and hence ignore the household accounts.
 

2)    ‘Labour volition position upward your taxes’ flopped, peradventure because voters didn’t heed besides much if this helps salvage the NHS. H5N1 smaller province is just non popular, which is in all probability i argue why they had to brand hence much of deficit reduction.

3)    The ‘Miliband looks funny’ strategy brutal apart when people realised he was rather ameliorate than much of the press made out. The work hither was that in that place was no half-truth to construct a myth upon (beside a rather black one), but the Conservatives believed their ain propaganda.

So why has the Lab+SNP=chaos work worked? H5N1 myth it sure as shooting is. If yous desire chaos, encounter what volition compass off to the Conservative political party during the European Union referendum. One scenario I accept non seen discussed is that a novel Con/LibDem coalition breaks apart afterwards the referendum, either because Cameron fails to recommend staying in, and/or because large numbers of Conservative MPs defect to UKIP, which makes the coalition dependent on their support.

With my mediamacro experience, I tin intend of 3 reasons why this myth has stuck. First a successful myth has to live based on a half-truth, in addition to the half-truth is that the SNP would accept approximately influence on whatever Labour government. Not much, because to vote downwards a Labour regime would live a huge gamble for the SNP. Their back upward inwards Scotland could disappear overnight if they could live charged alongside letting a Conservative regime dorsum inwards without due cause. But clearly in that place would live approximately influence, which is solely correct inwards a democracy.

Second, the non-partisan media finds it hard to counter a myth when no major political political party is calling it a myth, peculiarly during an election. The SNP accept encouraged the myth: approximately would unkindly state because they desire a Conservative government, but fifty-fifty if that is non truthful they desire to utter upward the influence they would accept on Labour. Labour itself does non desire to promote the sentiment that they could happily run alongside the SNP because they inwards plow desire to scare old Labour Scottish voters from voting SNP. With no political political party challenging the chaos myth, the media finds it really hard to practice hence off its ain bat. H5N1 few journalists similar Philip Stephens inwards the FT tin add approximately reality, but if politicians are non beingness challenged repeatedly on the news, in addition to hence in that place is niggling to counter the formidable ability of the correct fly press.

Third, this is novel territory, alongside few reference points, hence people cannot purpose their ain experience of similar situations inwards the past. The parallel alongside austerity would live the Eurozone crisis.

But before I convince myself, in that place may live something less myth similar in addition to to a greater extent than basic going on here: pure in addition to elementary nationalism. Although many on the left would similar to believe that the Scottish independence plebiscite marked a novel appointment alongside politics away from the Westminster elite, it could also exactly be approximately other illustration of the political ability of nationalism. And if nationalism tin accept hence much forcefulness N of the border, it is non surprising that in that place should non live at to the lowest degree approximately echo of this inwards England. English linguistic communication feelings of resentment in addition to unfairness powerfulness live perfectly justified, but their monetary in addition to political importance is tiny compared to the huge differences betwixt the political parties on other issues. But nationalism does non abide by that variety of calculus.

So maybe this all has aught to practice alongside chaos theory, but is merely most a to a greater extent than basic strategy: separate in addition to rule.

[1] There has been approximately criticism inside the Conservative political party most the negative grapheme of their campaign. Why non focus on the positive achievements of the lastly v years? What is non clear to me is whether this was always a feasible strategy. In my ain sphere I tin intend of i positive achievement, which was setting upward the OBR, but I suspect I attach to a greater extent than weight to that than the average voter.