Book Review: Smaller Faster Denser Lighter Cheaper
The volume Smaller Faster Lighter Denser Cheaper: How Innovation Keeps Proving The Catastrophists Wrong by Robert Bryce is a celebration of technical progress, inwards item progress fueled yesteryear capitalism. As individual inwards the Peak Oil camp, I was curious to accept a aspect at some of the to a greater extent than optimistic views of the future. Although I exercise non disagree with Bryce's assessment of the past, the weaknesses inside his analysis did non really motility me to reassess my gloomier long-term outlook.
Book Description
The volume was published inwards May 2014 yesteryear "PublicAffairs", in addition to is 400 pages long. The writer is a senior swain at the Manhattan Institute, has been published yesteryear a multifariousness of publications, in addition to previously authored the volume Power Hungry.
The volume discusses engineering at an easy-to-understand level, in addition to is aimed at a broad audience. He also includes some background data nigh diverse corporations that are involved with the discussed technologies inwards sidebars.
The volume has ane quirky feature: wherever whatsoever of the words "smaller", "faster", "lighter", "denser" or "cheaper" appear inwards the text, he Capitalises the Words. As individual who previously proofread documents, I may locomote peculiarly sensitive to this, but this breaks the menstruum of reading, every bit y'all halt to aspect for missing punctuation. The typographical measure is to occupation italics to emphasise words inwards text, but I approximate unconventional capitalisation is perhaps to locomote expected from a publisher that bills itself every bit "PublicAffairs".
I remove hold the ebook version of the text, in addition to so I refer "location numbers" rather than page numbers for my quotes.
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Good Partisan Split
It seems similar a prophylactic bet that the enjoyment of this volume would locomote fairly evenly split upward upon ideological lines. The writer is associated with a conservative American recollect tank, in addition to does non lose whatsoever chance to either brand fun of the environmentalist left, Democratic politicians, or celebrate the wonders of unfettered capitalism. This triumphalism also leads to some sloppy logic. Just because your political opponent says something wrong does non automatically imply that what y'all believe is correct.
To a for sure extent, the arguments immature lady their mark. I am unaware of whatsoever (credible) critic of modern industrial capitalism arguing that capitalism was doomed because it would locomote impossible to shrink the size of transistors inside integrated circuits, or accomplish other forms of engineering efficiency. The criticisms that affair involve resources (and pollution) constraints. Meanwhile, the Jevons Paradox (Wikipedia link) suggests that increasing efficiency may exercise piffling to assist bargain with resources constraints. (It is perhaps non also surprising that Jevons Paradox did non brand its agency into this book, fifty-fifty though it appears critical for discussing the interaction of engineering efficiency in addition to resources constraints.)
Bryce highlights the long history of wrong predictions nigh running out of resources. This is why ane should non forecast an immediate collapse based on hitting some natural limit. Correspondingly, I am non ane of "Catastrophists" that he refers to inwards the subtitle of the book. That said, in that location is a long in addition to storied history of declinists. Since all civilisations that are no longer with us declined in addition to fell, nosotros declinists remove hold enough of historical ammunition to allow us to debate that it is only a inquiry of waiting.
I exercise non desire to focus on these larger issues inside this review. I volition instead only aspect at the sections of most involvement to myself, which hash out education, unloose energy in addition to agriculture. The interesting business office is that I largely concur with what he writes inwards those areas; it's only that Bryce appears unwilling to aspect at the uglier implications of resources constraints.
Education: Getting Cheaper?
Online learning - whether it's a lesson on tying a bow tie, or mastering differential equations - is giving to a greater extent than peopl access to high-quality pedagogy than ever before. We've gone to a greater extent than monks to MOOCs, We've gone from a organization inwards which exclusively the wealthy could afford tutors in addition to books (dutifully hand-copied yesteryear monks) to a organization where nearly everyone on the planet can, inwards theory, remove hold access to some of the world's best teachers through massive opened upward online courses (MOOCs). (Chapter 15, location 2915)One of the drivers of inflation inwards the U.S.A. of America has been the out-of-control spiral inwards tuition. Can online learning opposite that inflation? If so, that would locomote of peachy involvement to inflation-linked bond investors,
There is no incertitude that it is possible to gain noesis rattling chop-chop using online tools. For example, ane tin acquire far to a greater extent than nigh macroeconomics yesteryear reading blogs in addition to the occasional post-Keynesian textbook than y'all would acquire yesteryear studying economic science at whatsoever number of "Ivy League" universities.
Unfortunately, the signal of a academy grade inwards the electrical flow era is non to acquire knowledge, it is to gain credentials. Since access to the best jobs is based upon getting credentials from the best universities, the bureaucrats running those universities know that they essentially remove hold a license to impress money. Until the menstruum of pupil loans is cutting off to starve their revenue source, they remove hold no ground to cutting dorsum spending or tuitions. Online teaching techniques would only locomote used to increment "profit margins" (more accurately, salaries for the overstep administrators).
Online courses are to a greater extent than probable to remove hold a greater deport upon where teaching matters to a greater extent than than positioning, such every bit for merchandise schools. My reading of Bryce's text is that his description is consistent with my views expressed here, although I set it inwards much to a greater extent than cynical fashion.
N2N: Natural Gas To Nuclear
As individual inwards the Peak Oil camp, I was amused yesteryear his exclusively cite of the topic.
Some extreme environmentalists every bit good every bit some neo-Malthusians recollect that finding in addition to using so many resources is non exclusively bad news, but also an indicator of imminent ruination. All of the planet's resources are limited, the fearmongers remind us, in addition to because they are limited, it must locomote truthful that nosotros are running out of them - despite few indications that that volition occur anytime [sic] soon. Remember the "peak oil" theorists, who got loads of media attending inwards the 1990s in addition to 2000s? They are on the run. Hate the oil in addition to gas manufacture if that's what makes y'all happy, but the history of that sector is ane of remarkable ingenuity. Prices in addition to engineering are ever combining to unlock hydrocarbons in ane lawsuit idea unreachable. Put some other way, the to a greater extent than oil in addition to gas nosotros find, the to a greater extent than oil in addition to gas nosotros find. (Location 374 inwards the Introduction.)To say that this misunderstands Peak Oil is an understatement. Peak oil was non a theory that nosotros are inwards danger of "running out of" oil, rather that production volition peak in addition to and so inexorably reject given the declining productivity of the remaining oil sources. Given the declining productivity, nosotros volition never "run out": oil volition locomote also uneconomic to exploit, in addition to it volition stay inwards the ground.
Although some unrealistic analyses insisted that oil production would follow a bell curve; economic science makes it to a greater extent than probable that the trajectory of production resemble a plateau, with localised peaks corresponding to the economical cycle. And this is what nosotros are seeing, Given the carnage inwards the oil sector, it looks similar nosotros volition remove hold some other production peak inwards 2015-2016, nigh levels that are non a whole lot higher than the previous peak that occurred around 2007. Ramping upward drilling activity raised production, but at the cost of making the downward production gradient steeper (since the sugariness spots are drilled out earlier).
Furthermore, engineering advances did non appear to assist the pocket-sized firms caught upward inwards the fracking bubble. Firms are dropping similar flies instantly that oil prices remove hold dropped, in addition to financing cutting off. This is despite the fact that oil prices exclusively started to autumn nigh half-dozen months ago. If these companies were really able to make shale oil in addition to gas efficiently, they should remove hold been able to create upward a cash cushion. It may locomote that all the oil in addition to gas manufacture has proved is that it tin destroy investor upper-case missive of the alphabet almost every bit efficiently every bit the tech sector.
Even though Bryce dismisses Peak Oil, he really echoes the associated analysis.
- He ties air current in addition to solar unloose energy to environmentalists, in addition to points out that they are non dense sources of energy, which makes them of limited occupation for carry (excluding the of import instance of sail-powered boats)* in addition to limits their maximum output. That is just what Peak Oil theorists remove hold pointed out for years, in addition to it is why they worried nigh "Peak Oil", in addition to non "Peak Energy".
- He points out that biofuels are disaster, It was good known that corn ethanol has a Energy Return On Investment that is below 1; that is it takes to a greater extent than unloose energy to make the ethanol than is released yesteryear burning it.
- He argues that nosotros demand to displace towards what he refers to every bit "N2N": Natural Gas to Nuclear inwards the long term. Although he justifies this on Global Warming grounds, it is the course of study of activity societies volition in all probability seek to follow in ane lawsuit global oil production heads downwards after the peak (logic he avoids).
Although the study ["How to Make Nuclear Cheap" yesteryear The Breakthrough Institute] doesn't unmarried out ane reactor blueprint every bit the "best", it makes a critical signal nigh the demand for to a greater extent than governmental involvement. More authorities commitment is needed to streamline the licensing procedure for novel nuclear technologies. It's also needed to enable conception inwards materials science. "The history of the commercial ability manufacture is ane inwards which commercialization inwards virtually all contexts has depended upon heavy state involvement," states the report. (Chapter 22, location 4439.)He seems somewhat uncomfortable with how this contradicts his gratis marketplace globe view, quoting Jerry Taylor who described nuclear ability every bit "solar ability for conservatives" (chapter 22, location 4440). Bryce seems to remove hold out the hope that some other moving ridge of authorities subsidies volition allow nuclear ability to in conclusion locomote economically viable. But the reality is that I grew upward inwards the 1970s reading yellowing library books inwards which the proponents of nuclear ability promised that wonders similar breeder reactors were waiting only around the corner (never hear fusion, which fifty-fifty Bryce avoids touching).
His declaration that nuclear ability is "dense" is disingenuous. Uranium fuel is indeed dense, but it takes a lot of processing in addition to refining of non-dense ore to acquire in that location (as the Iranians tin attest). Furthermore, it is unclear how unopen nosotros are to "Peak Uranium". The fuel currently beingness used inwards reactors instantly is to a greater extent than oftentimes than non coming from decommissioned nuclear warheads; it is unclear how good matched mining provide is to reactor demand in ane lawsuit those ex-military stockpiles are exhausted. Nuclear ability is a tiny balance inwards most long-term global unloose energy forecasts, in addition to in that location is piffling evidence to believe that volition change.
He appears right inwards arguing that natural gas volition locomote increasingly important. However, it is non peculiarly good suited for transport, given its lower unloose energy density. More importantly, natural gas production volition also peak, only at a afterward appointment than volition oil.
In summary, his description of the electrical flow province of affairs is reasonable. However, his hope that technological progress tin somehow eliminate declining extraction rates does non remove hold a whole lot of back upward behind it. We volition remove hold to hold back in addition to encounter how much is left of the oil in addition to gas sector before nosotros tin decide how economically feasible the fracking manufacture is across the cycle. The "proven reserves" figures he focuses on are largely meaningless; the inquiry is what volume of oil tin locomote profitably extracted at prices than tin locomote afforded yesteryear consumers.
Peak Food
His coverage of the constraints on industrial agriculture was non-existent. Instead, his argumentation revolves around the problems with organic farming.
He argues:
McWilliam's signal is essential: farmers must be able to make to a greater extent than nutrient without increasing the size of their farms. In other words, the density of production must increase. (Chapter 13, location 2729)More accurately, an increment inwards yields would locomote welcome, but in that location is no ground that the laws of nature must give us what nosotros want. Although in that location remove hold historically been large increases inwards yields per acre, those advances were low-hanging fruit. At this point, the marginal value of agricultural advances appears to locomote decreasing.
And resources constraints are tightening their grip. Fresh H2O is increasingly coming nether provide pressure, with the recent tidings menstruum out of California every bit an example. (Furthermore, the fracking processes which are needed to maintain upward unconventional hydrocarbon production eat a peachy bargain of water, in addition to are maybe contaminating soundless more. This creates a tension betwixt his beliefs that nosotros tin ever increment hydrocarbon in addition to agricultural output.) Natural gas is needed inwards the processes to create nitrogen inwards fertilizer. Meanwhile, it is unclear how far nosotros are from "Peak Phosphorus", every bit phosphate mine productivity appears to locomote declining.
Genetic scientific discipline cannot overcome the laws of thermodynamics in addition to evolution. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 institute needs water, nitrogen, phosphorus every bit good every bit other minerals inwards overstep soil inwards social club to convert sunlight into institute cells. There are upper limits to the efficiency of that operation. At the same time, industrial farmers are fighting against evolution, every bit institute in addition to insect pests are selected to develop defenses to the diverse herbicides in addition to pesticides inwards use. Any weed that develops immunity to favoured pesticides spreads chop-chop through highly fertilized soils, with exclusively the crop plants for competition.
He completely ignores externalities. Global fish stocks are collapsing due to over-fishing, every bit good every bit the creation of dead zones due to fertilizers beingness washed offshore. (The self-immolation of deep bounding main drilling rigs does non assist matters either.) Wild fish stocks are currently a major root of protein, in addition to that poly peptide root volition demand to locomote replaced somehow. ("Farmed" fish are oftentimes fed scraps from wild fish; it is unclear how feasible aquaculture volition locomote in ane lawsuit the menstruum of wild fish drops.)
Pointing out inadequacies inwards organic agriculture does aught to bargain with these underlying constraints to industrial agriculture.
Concluding Remarks
My impression is that Robert Bryce is so worried nigh scoring partisan points that he is unwilling to aspect also carefully at their internal logic. As he highlights, a peachy bargain of problems remove hold been solved yesteryear the occupation of to a greater extent than efficient in addition to "dense" technological solutions. Industrial agriculture is a sterling example. Even previous resources bottlenecks (coal) remove hold been worked around. But inwards all of these cases, the solutions were the consequence of relying upon stone oil powered infrastructure. Unfortunately, in that location is no convincing replacement for stone oil inside that infrastructure. (If y'all disagree, seek to seek modern coal-mining techniques using coal-powered equipment.) So in that location is no debate that industrial agriculture provides higher yields now; rather the number is that it volition locomote impossible to locomote on with that model every bit inputs locomote increasingly scarce.
This volume is relatively unsatisfying. If y'all are feeling depressed, perhaps beingness reminded nigh previous successes volition exercise the reader some good. But at the same time, extrapolating yesteryear successes without looking at the scientific discipline of the physical constraints to production only looks similar wishful thinking.
The volume is available at Amazon.com: Smaller Faster Lighter Denser Cheaper: How Innovation Keeps Proving the Catastrophists Wrong (affiliate link)
Footnote:
* It is possible to convert less dense sources of unloose energy into forms that are to a greater extent than concentrated, such every bit the "hydrogen economy" proposals. However, thermodynamics implies that unloose energy is lost during this conversion, in addition to so a greater amount of non-dense unloose energy is needed to accomplish the same tasks every bit the dense source.
(c) Brian Romanchuk 2015
No comments