That Plebiscite Was Fun. Shall Nosotros Produce It Again?

Whether the U.K. equally a whole gets to select whether to bring a plebiscite on continuing membership of the European Union depends on the final result of the full general election inwards 2015. Given that nosotros bring this choice, it is worth thinking close similarities in addition to differences betwixt the European Union plebiscite in addition to the plebiscite on Scottish independence.

The telephone commutation similarity is that the immediate economical consequences of independence inwards both cases are negative: according to John Van Reenen, fifty-fifty to a greater extent than in addition to so amongst the U.K. leaving the EU. In both cases nationalism volition play an of import role. I would struggle that inwards both cases independence is seen yesteryear many equally a agency to a detail end. With Scotland, it was a way of ensuring that Scotland would non endure governed yesteryear a correct fly Conservative party. With the EU, it is a way of stopping large scale migration into the UK.

Is around other similarity that the established parties are probable to endure united inwards tilt against independence? There must endure serious doubtfulness close this. I suspect that Cameron has a rigid preference for continued membership, in addition to fifty-fifty that inwards his eyes the plebiscite is largely a political ploy to halt Conservative voters moving to UKIP inwards 2015. However Cameron also has a preference for remaining the leader of his party. He is really unlikely to larn pregnant changes to the damage of European Union membership earlier the referendum, including the gratis displace of labour. There are said to be betwixt 50 in addition to 100 Conservative MPs who volition struggle for leaving the European Union whatever the outcome of Cameron’s negotiations. There are close 300 Conservative MPs at present. It is hence possible that, in i lawsuit the negotiations bring ended amongst piddling gained, a bulk of Tory MPs volition desire to leave of absence from the EU.

This leads to i clear departure betwixt the 2 referendums. I yell back it is fair to say that exterior Scotland few took the chances of a Yes vote seriously until the finally weeks of the campaign. There are 3 reasons for thinking that volition non hand off amongst the European Union referendum. First, U.K. world see has until quite late shown a bulk inwards favour of leaving the EU. Here are the polls conducted yesteryear evidence that it did. In contrast, the 2 years of uncertainty from 2015 in addition to 2017 is almost jump to endure damaging for the U.K. economy.