Links (2013-09-04)

Lightweight post service tonight; I am inwards the procedure of upgrading my query platform's database.

• Stan Collender on how Syrian Arab Republic impacts the outlook for the U.S.A. financial process. It provides political comprehend for even as well as therefore some other can-kicking exercise. As a Canadian, I detect Stan Collender's site  (Capital Gains as well as Games) a real valuable resources for agreement the agreement political procedure behind the tortuous budget negotiations for the yesteryear few years.
• 0.25% !!! Kazuhiko Sano, the main bond strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co. predicted the 10-year JGB volition hitting 0.25% inwards the side yesteryear side financial year. He had predicted a 0.50% yield for this year, as well as it hitting 0.32%. About a decade ago, I used to comprehend the JGB market. As i of the few Occidental secular JGB bulls at the time, I admire his call. But 10-year yields below 0.7% are fairly silly, fifty-fifty if you lot hold off the brusque charge per unit of measurement to average 0% over 10 years. Sure, you lot win if you lot concord to maturity, but if at that topographic point is whatever volatility, it's a one-way bet against you lot on shorter horizons. (The reward is effectively the same every bit a brusque put, amongst an effective alternative premium of 0.)
• Calculated Risk gives the charts of the U.S.A. merchandise data. The Trade Deficit widened to $39.1 billion inwards July. Trade is some other automatic stabiliser for the U.S.A. economy; every bit retail spending expands, merchandise is an increasing drag on growth.
• Garth Turner's latest letter on the Canadian housing market. He has some comments on the latest moving ridge of local data. He has been chronicling the craziness of the housing marketplace position hither for a few years. The official information available for Canadian housing is of debatable quality, as well as he attempts to kind out through the diverse trends inwards the real distinct regional markets. I'll hold out getting merely about to the dependent area shortly; it is the main number facing Canadian bonds. (The currency as well as stock marketplace position tend to follow commodities.) 

(c) Brian Romanchuk 2013