News You Lot Tin Post Away Use: Forecasting Edition

Following upwards on our shout out of the "40% risk approach to never beingness wrong" yesterday, here's to a greater extent than or less other flim-flam o' the trade.
Via Pavel Atanasov's Twitter feed:

When forecasters are scored based on average error, they produce good long-run past times predicting the mutual outcomes: economical increment rather than recession, condition quo rather than change. If yous desire meliorate hitting rates on recession & change, yous necessitate asymmetric scoring rules. https://t.co/qPdya5jK4u

— Pavel Atanasov (@PavelDAtanasov) December 16, 2018

If interested nosotros convey a few hundred posts on forecasting. Here's a Google site search:

site:climateerinvest.blogspot.com forecasting