The delayed U.S. Employment Situation Report for September (pre-government shutdown) was decent, inward my opinion. The marketplace seat land does non grip alongside this sentiment, equally the 10-year Treasury yield is downwards nearly vii footing points at the fourth dimension of writing.
The Employment Ratio together with Unemployment Rate rest on their straight-line trends. The autumn inward the Unemployment Rate was somewhat to a greater extent than legitimate this month, equally the participation charge per unit of measurement was unchanged. It volition accept at to the lowest degree a yoke of months to come across what lasting touching on the authorities shutdown has had on the labour market.
With the Unemployment Rate at 7.2%, the "threshold" degree of 7% is at in ane trial extremely close. The Fed is at in ane trial facing a nasty communications job - is the unemployment charge per unit of measurement all the same useful, or has it larn broken due people dropping out of the labour force? I personally mean value the essentially unchanged Employment Ratio gives a much amend reckon of the labour market, only I recognise that many policymakers are nervous nearly this extended menses of a negative existent policy rate. Memories are all the same fresh nearly the perceived policy errors made inward the 1970's.
(c) Brian Romanchuk 2013
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